Search results for "Unit root"
showing 10 items of 22 documents
Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?
2017
Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the sustainability of public finances in the Eurozone particularly after the 2007 financial crisis. This paper goes beyond the standard analysis of the univariate properties of the fiscal variables through the estimation of a time-varying fiscal reaction function on a 11-country panel for a period spanning from 1970 to 2014. Even if panel unit root or stationary tests may provide a rough first insight on the sustainability of the public finances, they fail to highlight the adjustment mechanisms to debt overhang in recent years. The main advantage of our empirical approach is that it clearly captures the government’s dynamic response to debt accumul…
Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach
2005
Abstract In this paper we test for hysteresis effects versus the natural rate hypothesis on unemployment rates of new members in the European Union (EU) using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. In addition, we estimate the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) from a univariate perspective. The precision of these NAIRU are investigated by studying two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the estimation of the break points, and the estimation of the autoregressive parameters. The results indicate up to four structural breaks in the NAIRU of transition countries that can be associated with institutional changes from implementing market-oriented …
Convergence in car prices among European countries
2011
This article contributes to the literature on price convergence in Europe by investigating the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence of car prices in the EU15 countries. We apply recently developed econometric techniques that allow for multiple structural breaks to an up-to-date dataset. We find considerable evidence of both types of convergence in our sample of countries and car models, therefore suggesting a tendency for relative prices to equalize over time. In addition, we find evidence regarding the importance in this convergence process of both legislative changes taking place in the years 1996 and 2002, and the implementation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).
Non-stationarity tests and nonlinear trends
1992
This paper stresses the importance of the hypothesis of linearity of the deterministic component imposed by unit root testing procedures most frequently used in empirical literature. We suggest an empirical testing strategy which reduces the risk of reaching false conclusions due to the misspecification of that component and we apply it to the analysis of the nonstationarity exhibited by real GNP in France. We show that it is possible to find someflexible specifications which enable us to reject the unit root null hypothesis otherwise strongly supported in empirical literature. These specifications might be considered as approximations of the true process generating real GNP and might be us…
Persistence in Italian rate of Unemployment in presence of breaks and regional asymmetries
2006
This work aims to test the persistence of Italian unemployment rate during last fifty years. To this scope we find evidences of a unit root, also when we allow for the presence of structural shifts so that the level of unemployment has a path dependant behaviour. Secondly, we test a possible explanation of the persistence through the presence of cointegration relationships with some institutional labour market variables, such as the union membership. Thirdly, there are asymmetric macroregional behaviours so that the great bulk of persistence is given by Center – Southern unemployment. It implies that changes in unemployment level have longer duration in the poorest part of the country.
Monetary union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries
2006
Abstract This paper investigates cross-country productivity convergence among Mercosur members plus associates (Chile and Bolivia) and Peru, during the period 1960–1999. The testing strategy is based on the definitions of time series convergence by Bernard and Durlauf (1995) [Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Interpreting tests of convergence hypothesis. Journal of Econometrics , 71 , 161–173] and applies sequentially the multivariate unit root tests proposed by Sarno and Taylor (1998) [Sarno, L., & Taylor, M. (1998). Real exchange rates under the recent float: Unequivocal evidence of mean reversion. Economics Letters , 60 , 131–137], Flores et al. (1995) [Flores, R., Preumont, P.Y.,…
Tests against stationary and explosive alternatives in vector autoregressive models
2008
. The article proposes new tests for the number of unit roots in vector autoregressive models based on the eigenvalues of the companion matrix. Both stationary and explosive alternatives are considered. The limiting distributions of test statistics depend only on the number of unit roots. Size and power are investigated, and it is found that the new test against some stationary alternatives compares favourably with the widely used likelihood ratio test for the cointegrating rank. The powers are prominently higher against explosive than against stationary alternatives. Some empirical examples are provided to show how to use the new tests with real data.
Price convergence of peripheral European countries on the way to the EMU: A time series approach
2000
This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.
Croissance et convergence des pays de la zone CFA : une étude par les données de panel non stationnaires
2011
During the recent years, african countries in the CFA zone have experienced many economic changes on the one hand through the measures initiated by bilateral and multilateral donors and on the other hand through the economic and monetary integration policies. Thus, relying on the assumption that because of these interventions, the economic systems incorporate various phenomena such as structural change and economic interdependencies, we studied their major implications on growth, convergence and growth predictability. Emphasis is first placed on the major features of integration policies in a monetary union, while stressing the possible implications of such policies on the economic dynamics…
Impact de l'intervalle d'échantillonnage sur les tests d'efficience : application au marché français des actions
1994
Efficiency of financial markets is one of the most studied subject in theoretical finance. Formalization of this idea is realised by the random walk model. Numerous tests have been developped to validate the hypothesis of identically and independantly distributed innovations. But the results of empirical works are not unanimous ; the acceptation of the random walk is not systematic and depend too much on sample features. This constatation leads us to study the impact of the sample frequency on empirical results by distinguishing two different methodologies of tests : the first one is based on unit root (DICKEY et FULLER 1979, 1981) and the other one on variance ratio (LO et MACKINLAY 1988).…