Search results for "Voting"
showing 10 items of 114 documents
Stratégies d'influences et politiques de maîtrise de la croissance locale
2010
Over the last ten years, real estate prices have risen considerably and accordingly to most observers, this can at least partly be attributed to an insufficient supply, due to local growth control measures. This thesis tries to understand what motivates local authorities implementing such policies. Local politicians are considered as opportunistic and their decision is modelled as the result of a political struggle between different land-related interests. This game for influence mainly opposes the owners of developed and undeveloped land, who find allies amongst local business interests that might form growth or ideas machines. Our first model describes this struggle under different hypoth…
Decision Committee Learning with Dynamic Integration of Classifiers
2000
Decision committee learning has demonstrated spectacular success in reducing classification error from learned classifiers. These techniques develop a classifier in the form of a committee of subsidiary classifiers. The combination of outputs is usually performed by majority vote. Voting, however, has a shortcoming. It is unable to take into account local expertise. When a new instance is difficult to classify, then the average classifier will give a wrong prediction, and the majority vote will more probably result in a wrong prediction. Instead of voting, dynamic integration of classifiers can be used, which is based on the assumption that each committee member is best inside certain subar…
Dynamic Integration of Decision Committees
2000
Decision committee learning has demonstrated outstanding success in reducing classification error with an ensemble of classifiers. In a way a decision committee is a classifier formed upon an ensemble of subsidiary classifiers. Voting, which is commonly used to produce the final decision of committees has, however, a shortcoming. It is unable to take into account local expertise. When a new instance is difficult to classify, then it easily happens that only the minority of the classifiers will succeed, and the majority voting will quite probably result in a wrong classification. We suggest that dynamic integration of classifiers is used instead of majority voting in decision committees. Our…
Single-Target Implicit Association Tests (ST-IAT) Predict Voting Behavior of Decided and Undecided Voters in Swiss Referendums
2016
Undecided voters represent a major challenge to political pollsters. Recently, political psychologists have proposed the use of implicit association tests (IAT) to measure implicit attitudes toward political parties and candidates and predict voting behavior of undecided voters. A number of studies have shown that both implicit and explicit (i.e., self-reported) attitudes contribute to the prediction of voting behavior. More importantly, recent research suggests that implicit attitudes may be more useful for predicting the vote of undecided voters in the case of specific political issues rather than elections. Due to its direct-democratic political system, Switzerland represents an ideal pl…
Quantitative Analysis of Gender Stereotypes and Information Aggregation in a National Election
2013
By analyzing a database of a questionnaire answered by a large majority of candidates and elected in a parliamentary election, we quantitatively verify that (i) female candidates on average present political profiles which are more compassionate and more concerned with social welfare issues than male candidates and (ii) the voting procedure acts as a process of information aggregation. Our results show that information aggregation proceeds with at least two distinct paths. In the first case candidates characterize themselves with a political profile aiming to describe the profile of the majority of voters. This is typically the case of candidates of political parties which are competing for…
The Role of the Church and Mosque in the Political Mobilization of Black African Immigrants in Finland at the Municipal Level
2015
Research has generally shown that the church and mosque play some role in immigrant political integration, especially mobilization. In Finland, this is not yet known as no research has yet examined it. This leaves a gap on whether the church and/or the mosque play such role. This paper seeks to fill this gap, using Black African immigrants as a case study through in-depth interviews. The focus is on political mobilization at the municipal level where many immigrants in Finland have full local suffrage. The study does not just examine the role of the church and mosque in mobilization in conventional politics (such as voting, party membership, campaigning), but also in the unconventional (suc…
Candidate localness and voter choice in the 2015 General Election in England
2017
Previous research has demonstrated a significant relationship between the geographical distance from a voter to a candidate and the likelihood of the voter choosing that candidate. However, models of this relationship may be mis- or under-specified, by not taking into account voters’ perceptions of distance or not controlling for other possible factors related to a candidate’s ‘localness’ which may influence vote choice. Using a two-wave panel survey carried out during the 2015 UK General Election, this article tests a more fully specified alternative-specific multinomial probit model of candidate-voter distance. We show that, although the effect size is smaller than in previous tests, cand…
Vote Transfers, Thwarted Voters and Newcomers in the 2009 Presidential Runoff in Romania
2011
Abstract This article investigates the role of thwarted voters and newcomers in setting the result of the December 6th, 2009 presidential runoff in Romania. For this purpose it employs panel survey data from the Romanian Election Studies, collected across three waves: pre-election, between the two rounds, post-election. Initially, it draws a picture of the main evolutions in turnout and vote between the first and the second round, with a special emphasis on vote transfers and risks associated to turnout and pro-winner overreporting. Then it analyzes the thwarted voters and their rationalities of making second-order electoral choices in the presidential runoff. The influence of campaign deve…
INVESTIGATION OF ELECTION RESULTS, NUMBERS OF PARTY MEMBERS, AND OPINION POLLS IN GERMANY
2008
Our publication focuses on two different but related topics in politics: in the first part of this publication, we investigate the influence of election results in the elections for the parliaments of the German states and for the German Diet (federal parliament) on the member numbers of the largest parties in the various states. In the second part of this publication, we consider the correlations between opinion polls and election results and focus on the question whether real election results can be predicted by opinion polls.
Political Psychology as Discipline and Resource
2001
Around the 1960s, political psychology was developed as a field of knowledge that attempted to interrelate scientific psychology and political phenomena. However, social and academic conditions are very different today. More and more, political psychology is becoming a protagonist, as much in the internal context of psychology as in the external context of its relations with the social world. Thus, political psychology can now be seen as a resource relating psychological knowledge to social practice, and relating psychological processes to social action. Political psychology is the interface that puts psychology and society in contact. The development of political psychology in Spain provid…