Search results for "Voting"
showing 10 items of 114 documents
Populist Words Speak Louder? Ideology-Inconsistent Personalization and Voting for Populist Candidates
2021
Abstract The private background of populist politicians oftentimes seemingly contradicts the populist ideology—which can be taken up in political communication. Using two experiments (nStudy 1 = 734; nStudy 2 = 568), we investigate the effects of such ideology-inconsistent personalization on the evaluation of and voting for a populist candidate. We manipulate the politician’s localness and social class (Study 1) and traditionalism in family life (Study 2). Results reveal a number of effects on candidate evaluation which translated into voting intentions. An upper-class background of the populist politician yielded negative effects, but less so among populist voters. However, references to a…
Encuestas a pie de urna en España. ¿Error muestral o sesgo de no respuesta?
2016
Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both pre-election and exit polls can be found all over the world. Non-representative samples due to differential nonresponse have been claimed as being the main reason for inaccurate exit-poll projections. In real inference problems, it is seldom possible to compare estimates and true values. Electoral forecasts are an exception. Comparisons between estimates and final outcomes can be carried out once votes have been tallied. In this paper, we examine the raw data collected in seven exit polls conducted in Spain and test the likelihood that the data collected in each sampled voting location can be considered as a random sample of actua…
ei.Datasets: Real Data Sets for Assessing Ecological Inference Algorithms
2021
Ecological inference models aim to infer individual-level relationships using aggregate data. They are routinely used to estimate voter transitions between elections, disclose split-ticket voting behaviors, or infer racial voting patterns in U.S. elections. A large number of procedures have been proposed in the literature to solve these problems; therefore, an assessment and comparison of them are overdue. The secret ballot however makes this a difficult endeavor since real individual data are usually not accessible. The most recent work on ecological inference has assessed methods using a very small number of data sets with ground truth, combined with artificial, simulated data. This arti…
The importance of being first : Effects of candidates’ list positions in the 2003 Bavarian state election
2006
Abstract Normative theories of democracy do not pay much attention to technicalities of voting, implicitly assuming that these do not influence voting behaviour and election outcomes significantly. However, it is not clear whether this is actually the case. In this article we analyse whether one such technical detail matters for voting behaviour: the ballot position. Based on previous research in the field, we discuss ballot position effects and deduce hypotheses concerning list position effects in the 2003 Bavarian state election. In the empirical analysis, it turns out that ballot positions had a considerable influence on voting behaviour in this election, especially, the top position on …
Turkey's bid for EU membership, contrasting views of public opinion, and vote choice. Evidence from the 2005 German federal election
2008
Abstract This paper examines the effects of attitudes toward Turkey's entry into the European Union on vote choice in the 2005 federal election in Germany. Building on prior research, the paper contrasts the elitist and the policy voting view. The evidence shows that citizens' opinions about Turkey's accession to the European Union do not merely reflect group-memberships and political predispositions. They also play a role in influencing voting behaviour with support of Turkey's entry raising the likelihood to vote for the SPD or the Greens while reducing the probability to cast a vote for right-wing parties, the CDU/CSU and the FDP. Finally, low educated voters are disproportionately susce…
Spanish electoral archive. SEA database
2021
This paper introduces the SEA database (acronym for Spanish Electoral Archive). SEA brings together the most complete public repository available to date on Spanish election outcomes. SEA holds all the results recorded from the electoral processes of General (1979–2019), Regional (1989–2021), Local (1979–2019) and European Parliamentary (1987–2019) elections held in Spain since the restoration of democracy in the late 70 s, in addition to other data sets with electoral content. The data are offered for free and is presented in a homogeneous and friendly format. Most of the databases are available for download with data from various electoral levels, including from the ballot box level. This…
Spatial Vote Redistribution in Redrawn Polling Units
2012
Summary A large proportion of electoral analyses using geography are performed on a small area basis. In each new election there are always modifications to the previously existing polling units. The use of past voting results in small area aggregate data electoral forecasting models and political analyses therefore requires establishing a correspondence between old and new polling units. Traditionally, the task of tracking changes to assign an electoral history to the new units properly has been carried out by hand, comparing unit codes and census figures. This is an extremely cumbersome task that cannot always be performed, as when a massive (geographically intense) reorganization of poll…
What drives the helpfulness of online reviews? A deep learning study of sentiment analysis, pictorial content and reviewer expertise for mature desti…
2021
Los destinos turísticos se ven cada vez más afectados por la información relacionada con los viajes que se comparte a través de las redes sociales. Basándose en teorías de proceso dual sobre cómo los individuos procesan la información, este estudio examina el papel de las rutas de procesamiento de información central y periférica en la formación de las percepciones de los consumidores sobre la utilidad de las reseñas en línea de destinos maduros. Llevamos a cabo un proceso de dos pasos para abordar la utilidad percibida del contenido generado por el usuario, un análisis de sentimiento utilizando técnicas avanzadas de aprendizaje automático (aprendizaje profundo) y un análisis de regresión. …
Improving predictive accuracy of exit polls
2010
Abstract Exit polls are best known for their use in election forecasting. In recent years, however, some prominent mistaken predictions have been made, undermining public confidence in the accuracy of both exit polls and survey methods. Nonresponse bias has been claimed as being one of the main reasons for inaccurate projections. Traditionally, the issue has been handled through an age–race–sex adjustment at the national and state levels. An alternative solution is suggested and detailed in this paper. A two-step strategy is proposed to reduce nonresponse bias and improve predictions. First, “vote-remembering” (vote recall) is used to correct party proportion estimates at polling locations;…
Hypothetical Investment Bias
2018
Young, entrepreneurial firms are particularly dependent on external investors to sustain their development. Are non-binding equity investment commitments informative? Our large sample evidence in the context of equity crowdfunding shows that only 18% of non-binding commitments made by investors in entrepreneurial firms are actually invested. The evidence is consistent with hypothetical bias. Hypothetical bias is significantly less pronounced among women, and among investors with greater social capital, proxied by education and wealth. While investment intentions are only partially reliable at the individual level, the aggregate amount of collected investment intentions is a strong predictor…