Search results for "causality"
showing 10 items of 258 documents
Synergistic Information Transfer in the Global System of Financial Markets.
2020
Uncovering dynamic information flow between stock market indices has been the topic of several studies which exploited the notion of transfer entropy or Granger causality, its linear version. The output of the transfer entropy approach is a directed weighted graph measuring the information about the future state of each target provided by the knowledge of the state of each driving stock market index. In order to go beyond the pairwise description of the information flow, thus looking at higher order informational circuits, here we apply the partial information decomposition to triplets consisting of a pair of driving markets (belonging to America or Europe) and a target market in Asia. Our …
On Line Elaboration of a Mental Model During the Understanding of an Animation
2006
This experiment examines how, high and low mechanical and spatial abilities, learners understand an animation. Two variables were manipulated: the controllability of the animations and the task type of the learners to study the device. The comprehension test results indicated a positive effect of a fully controllable animation and also a positive effect of task type, when the attention of the learner is focused on the functional model and on local kinematics. The eye tracking data indicated that the learners attend more to the areas of the animations where a great amount of motion is involved along the causal chain of events. We show an effect of the controllability of the system and of the…
BVP ir skolinimo elgsena : empiriniai Baltijos šalių ekonomikos požymiai
2021
Darnus ekonominis vystymasis remiasi stabilia ir palankia verslo aplinka, kuri skatina organizacijų konkurencingumą. Komerciniai bankai palengvina kapitalo judėjimą iš mažiau efektyvių ekonomikos sektorių į labiau konkurencingas ekonomikos šakas. Šio tyrimo tikslas – išanalizuoti Baltijos šalių BVP dinamiką 2005-2010 metais ir patikrinti BVP koreliavimą su vietinių komercinių bankų išduotų paskolų verslui skaičiumi. Tyrimo rezultatai parodė, kad yra požymių, jog egzistuoja abipusė priklausomybė tarp BVP veiksnių ir išduotų paskolų, tai savo ruožtu sudaro pagrindą formuoti pasiūlymus, kaip gaivinti Baltijos šalių ekonomiką. Šešiose pramonės šakose atliktas Granger BVP ir skolinimo priežastin…
Consumer confidence: Causality links with subjective and objective information sources
2020
Abstract This study analyses the relationship of causality between consumer confidence and the economic information ecosystem from subjective (i.e., business sentiment) and objective sources (financial information from listed companies and the stock index). Our sample covers Spain from June 2011 to December 2018. Our results show that consumer confidence and economic information can exert a causality influence on each other. The results show Granger causality from IBEX35 and total assets in the financial sector and leverage of the companies in the energy sector to the consumer confidence index (CCI), in the first lag: from operating income in the telecommunications sector to the CCI in the …
Bank-specific shocks and aggregate leverage: Empirical evidence from a panel of developed countries
2020
International audience; This paper investigates the link between shocks in the banking sector and aggregate leverage measured by the credit-to-GDP gap. Using a balanced panel of 15 countries for the period 1989–2016, we exploit the approach due to Gabaix (2011) and consider banking granular shocks as an indicator of banking distress. Using methods that account for potential endogeneity, we find that banking shocks Granger-cause aggregate leverage. In particular, banking shocks tend to increase the level of leverage and cause departures of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend.
Selectivity in Probabilistic Causality: Where Psychology Runs Into Quantum Physics
2011
Given a set of several inputs into a system (e.g., independent variables characterizing stimuli) and a set of several stochastically non-independent outputs (e.g., random variables describing different aspects of responses), how can one determine, for each of the outputs, which of the inputs it is influenced by? The problem has applications ranging from modeling pairwise comparisons to reconstructing mental processing architectures to conjoint testing. A necessary and sufficient condition for a given pattern of selective influences is provided by the Joint Distribution Criterion, according to which the problem of "what influences what" is equivalent to that of the existence of a joint distr…
A new definition for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease: An international expert consensus statement
2020
The exclusion of other chronic liver diseases including “excess” alcohol intake has until now been necessary to establish a diagnosis of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). However, given our current understanding of the pathogenesis of MAFLD and its rising prevalence, “positive criteria” to diagnose the disease are required. In this work, a panel of international experts from 22 countries propose a new definition for the diagnosis of MAFLD that is both comprehensive and simple, and is independent of other liver diseases. The criteria are based on evidence of hepatic steatosis, in addition to one of the following three criteria, namely overweight/obesity, presence …
Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy in Romania?
2020
At both macroeconomic and national level, in recent decades, European tax policies have shown a particular interest in addressing the spectrum of risk issues in terms of maturing the business environment and the lack of sustainable development of the economy. In Romania there has been a significant increase in public debt, which is increasingly threatening fiscal sustainability. This is due to fiscal rules that restrict the applicability of fiscal policy to balancing the national economy. However, fiscal policy did not act in the direction of economic recovery during the crisis that started in the last quarter of 2008, which had a negative impact on the Romanian business environment. Object…
Engagement as a Driver of Growth of Online Health Forums: Observational Study
2017
Background: The emerging research on nurturing the growth of online communities posits that it is in part attributed to network effects, wherein every increase in the volume of user-generated content increases the value of the community in the eyes of its potential new members. The recently introduced metric engagement capacity offers a means of quantitatively assessing the ability of online platform users to engage each other into generating content; meanwhile, the quantity engagement value is useful for quantifying communication-based platform use. If the claim that higher engagement leads to accelerated growth holds true for online health forums (OHFs), then engagement tracking should be…
Comparison of body mass index (BMI) with the CUN-BAE body adiposity estimator in the prediction of hypertension and type 2 diabetes
2016
BACKGROUND: Obesity is a world-wide epidemic whose prevalence is underestimated by BMI measurements, but CUN-BAE (Clínica Universidad de Navarra - Body Adiposity Estimator) estimates the percentage of body fat (BF) while incorporating information on sex and age, thus giving a better match. Our aim is to compare the BMI and CUN-BAE in determining the population attributable fraction (AFp) for obesity as a cause of chronic diseases. METHODS: We calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between BMI and CUN-BAE, the Kappa index and the internal validity of the BMI. The risks of arterial hypertension (AHT) and diabetes mellitus (DM) and the AFp for obesity were assessed using both the BMI a…