Search results for "causality"

Stock earnings and bond yields in the US 1871–2017 : The story of a changing relationship

2021

Abstract Using historical data spanning almost 150 years, we examine whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the stock's earnings and bond yields. The novelty of our econometric methodology consists in using a vector error correction model where we allow multiple structural breaks in the equilibrium relationship. The results of our analysis suggest the existence of an equilibrium relationship over 1871–1932 and 1958–2017. On the two historical segments, our analysis finds that the stock's earnings yield followed the bond yield in both the short run and long run, but not the other way around. Perhaps the most important and surprising finding of our empirical study is tha…

Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality

2017

Abstract This paper investigates the causal relationship between changes in the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the S&P 500 stock return in the United Sates with emphasis on time variation, stress factors and smooth regime transition. First, the time-varying Granger causality test proposed by Lu et al. (2014) is applied. Then a two-regime multifactor smooth transition regression model with a single transition variable representing a wide range of macroeconomic and financial variables is estimated in order to identify the key explanatory factors governing the causal relationship. The results show a significant bidirectional causal relationship over most of the study period, mainly due to the…

Variable selection in the analysis of energy consumption-growth nexus

2015

There is abundant empirical literature that focuses on whether energy consumption is a critical driver of economic growth. The evolution of this literature has largely consisted of attempts to solve the problems and answer the criticisms arising from earlier studies. One of the most common criticisms is that previous work concentrates on the bivariate relationship, energy consumption–economic growth. Many authors try to overcome this critique using control variables. However, the choice of these variables has been ad hoc, made according to the subjective economic rationale of the authors. Our contribution to this literature is to apply a robust probabilistic model to select the explanatory …

Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?

2017

This paper investigates the presence of time-varying causal linkages in mean and variance between oil price changes and stock returns for six major oil-importing countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US) in a multiscale framework that combines wavelet analysis and a modified version of the dynamic causality test of Lu, Hong, Wang, Lai, and Liu (2014). The results show significant bidirectional causal relations between oil and stock markets at the different time horizons for all countries. The causal links tend to be stronger at coarser scales and in periods of financial turmoil, mainly during the recent global financial and European sovereign debt crises. This evidence pr…

Cities, hinterlands and agglomeration shadows: Spatial developments in Finland during 1880–2004

2010

Abstract This paper analyzes long-term spatial developments in Finland by focusing on two predictions of the new economic geography (NEG) models: the increasing persistence of locational patterns and the rising dominance of growth centers. The empirical analysis is based on regional population data from 1880 to 2004. The results support the hypotheses. Evolutions in rank and rank-size distributions during the processes of industrialization and urbanization suggest increasing persistence of regional structures. The analysis of causal processes between population centers and their hinterlands shows that these regions grew hand-in-hand in the pre-war period, whereas agglomeration shadows start…

Excessive Focus on Risk? Non-performing Loans and Efficiency of Microfinance Institutions

2021

Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility

2019

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link. This paper investigates the causal linkages in volatility between crude oil prices and six major bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in the time-frequency space using high-frequency intraday data. Special attention is paid to the potential asymmetries in the causal effects between oil and forex markets. The wavelet-based Granger causality method proposed by Olayeni (2016) is applied to quantify the causal relations in the time and frequency domains simultaneously. Moreover, the realized semivariance approach of Barndoff-Nielsen et a…

Real wages-employment relationship in Finnish manufacturing: a VAR approach

1991

Granger's concept of causality and the vector autoregressive(VAR) technique is used to investigate the real wages-employment relationship in Finnish manufacturing. The stationarity of the time series is examined and a number of co-integration tests for the adequacy of a pure VAR specification performed. The results using a bivariate VAR model based on a lag structure determined by Akaike's information criterion suggests that real wages Granger-cause employment. The slight non-constancy of the model suggests, however, that the conclusion concerning the nature of the real wages-emploment relationship should be treated with causion.

Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations

2017

This article explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, t...

Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints

2016

Abstract We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. The mechanism at play is that during periods of high uncertainty, firms that are credit constrained switch the composition of investment by reducing productivity-enhancing investment—such as on ICT capital—which is more subject to liquidity risks (Aghion et al., 2010). The effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method—a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth of 25 industries from 18 advanced econo…