Search results for "cointegration"
showing 10 items of 62 documents
Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions
2015
In this article we present evidence of the long-run effect of trade openness on income per worker for two regions that have followed different liberalization strategies, namely Asia and Latin America. A model that re-examines these questions is estimated for two panels of Asian and Latin American countries over the 1980-2008 period using a novel empirical approach that accounts for endogeneity as well as for the time series properties of the variables involved. From an econometric point of view, we apply recent panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for two additional elements usually neglected in previous empirical literature: cross-dependence and structural bre…
Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between goods and services inflation in the United States
2006
In this paper, we model the long-run relationship between goods and services inflation for the United States over the period 1968:1–2003:3. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between the two inflation series. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration would be rejected in favor of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. Consequently, we could expect a cointegrating relationship only when the divergence between services inflation and goods inflation is above the threshold point estimate.
Has 1997 Asian crisis increased information flows between international markets
2003
Abstract The Asian crisis started on July 2, 1997 and caused turmoil in developed as well as emerging international stock markets. The objective of this paper is to analyse the effects of the crisis on the relationships of the Southeast Asian stock markets with the stock markets of three geographical areas (Europe, North America, and Latin America). We use the Morgan Stanley national and international indexes (MSCI) for two homogeneous and nonoverlapping time intervals. The econometric techniques used in this paper include the cointegration test, vector autoregression analysis, forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), and impulse–response relationships. Our results show that: (i) there…
Equilibrium in Asset Prices: Evidence from Cryptocurrencies
2019
Employing daily data on ten cryptocurrencies that exhibit the highest market capitalization, we find one instance of cointegration equilibrium in the 2016 2018 period. Contrary to earlier studies that report cryptocurrency markets are developing toward market efficiency, our findings suggest that even the most liquid cryptocurrency markets are inefficient.
Estimating the substitutability between private and public consumption: the case of Spain, 1960–2003
2005
This paper examines the relationship between private and public consumption using Spanish data over the period 1960–2003, using a two-good permanent-income model. We extend previous analysis addressing the question of whether this relationship is stable over time, or exhibits a structural break allowing the instability to occur at an unknown point in time. Our empirical results indicated the existence of a long-run relationship between private and public consumption. We also detect a structural change of regime shift in the cointegration regression around the time of 1973–74. Finally, the estimated intratemporal and intertemporal elasticities of substitution between the two types of expendi…
Decoupling factors on the energy–output linkage: The Spanish case
2007
The recent increase of energy intensity in Spain and the ratification of the Kyoto protocol call for the implementation of energy policies in Spain. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Energy Consumption (EC) by taking into account several decoupling factors that can affect this linkage. Specifically, we have considered the temporal aggregation of data and its seasonal adjustments, the multivariate methodology, the substitution between EC and other inputs and the technological changes. Empirical tests reveal a long-run relationship between EC and GDP that can only be established in a complete way with a multivariate cointegration analysis.…
Is the Fisher effect non-linear? some evidence for Spain, 1963–2002
2005
In this paper the role of non-linearities in the relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, in order to shed some additional light on the mostly unfavourable evidence on the presence of a full Fisher effect. The analysis is applied to the case of Spain for the period 1963–2002, which allows previous results on the subject to be re-examined and extended. The empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration, so that cointegration between a pair of variables should be expected only once a certain threshold was reached.
Upstream Product Market Regulations, ICT, R&D and Productivity
2017
Our study aims to assess the actual importance of the two main channels via which upstream anti-competitive sector regulations are usually considered to impact productivity growth, i.e. by acting as a disincentive to business investments in R&D and in ICT. We estimate the specific impacts of these two channels and their shares in the total impact as opposed to alternative channels of investments in other forms of intangible capital that we cannot explicitly consider for lack of appropriate data such as improvements in skills, management and organization. To achieve this, we specify an extended production function explicitly relating productivity to R&D and ICT capital as well as to upstream…
The role of Institutions in explaining wage determination in the Euro Area: a panel cointegration approach
2016
Over the last 15 years, the evolution of labor costs has been very diverse across EMU countries. Since wages have important second-round effects on prices and competitiveness, and EMU countries do not have the tool of the nominal exchange rate to correct for such imbalances, understanding the determinants of the wage is a matter of increasing concern and debate. We estimate the equilibrium wage equation for the Euro Area over the period 1995-2011 using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross-section dependence and structural breaks. The results show that the equilibrium wage has a positive relation with productivity and negative relation with unemployment, as expected. We also i…
The euro impact on trade: long run evidence with structural breaks
2012
In this paper we present new evidence on the euro effect on trade. We use a data set containing all bilateral combinations in a panel of 26 OECD countries during the period 1967-2008. From a methodological point of view, we implement a new generation of tests that allow solving some of the problems derived from the non-stationary nature of the data. To this aim we apply panel tests that account for the presence of cross-section dependence as well as discontinuities in the non-stationary panel data. We test for cointegration between the variables using panel cointegration tests, especially the ones proposed by Banerjee and Carrióni- Silvestre (2010). We also efficiently estimate the long-run…