Search results for "crisis"
showing 10 items of 860 documents
Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets
2007
Abstract This paper uses seemingly unrelated probit techniques to separate the transmission of a crisis due to broadly defined macroeconomic interdependence from contagion due to herding, avoiding some of the caveats of the more traditional cross-correlation approach. We find that pure contagion occurred in a limited number of country pairs generally belonging to the same region. A reduction in speculative pressure can also be identified between countries in different regional blocks. This seems to suggest that after an initial crisis episode, investors tend to discriminate on the basis of location and common macroeconomic weakness or perceived similarity.
A Study of Seasonality on the SAFEX Wheat Market
2015
This paper examines seasonality in returns and volatilities in the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) wheat futures contract in order to seek market inefficiencies that can be exploited for financial gain. Non-parametric and parametric-based techniques are used to study sample regimes before and after the peak in wheat prices that occurred during the global economic crisis in 2008. Findings of the study indicate that wheat returns on Mondays and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) holidays are significant and positive while Tuesday returns are negative and significant. These seasonal patterns occur largely in the second sample of the wheat dataset. Furthermore, it is observed that volatil…
Asymmetric decentralisation, economic cycle, regional and local government’s borrowing in Spain
2014
This paper investigates the evolution of sub-central government borrowing in Spain over the period 1996–2011. The arguments and figures provided show that the intense process of political and fiscal decentralisation that took place over the 1990s and 2000s did not lead to higher debt ratios in terms of GDP at these tiers of government until 2007. Although a kind of overspending bias was in effect until the late 2000s, the paper shows that the evolution of GDP and tax revenues provided regional and local governments with enough resources to vigorously pursue their devolved public policy responsibilities and still keep their debt ratios under control. However, since 2008, when the world finan…
Budget burden and benefit visibility of European central level governments
2001
Central levels of government in European Union member countries are different regarding their basic institutions, powers, fiscal systems, accountability, public performance management, financial control bodies, and the like. In spite of this, the economic operation of such levels of government should be analyzed, evaluated, and compared from an efficiency viewpoint. This paper presents general indicators to systematically assess the burden and benefit visibility of public budgets of the International Monetary Fund member countries and specific estimates for the central subsystems of public revenue and expenditure now in force in such European countries. An important policy implication of th…
DETERMINANTS OF PROFITABILITY IN SPANISH FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS. COMPARING AIDED AND NON-AIDED ENTITIES
2015
The last financial crisis has led to the greatest contribution of public funds ever made to Spanish banks. This paper studies why the need for support has been asymmetric, with not all of the institutions requiring aid. Based on profitability of assets (ROA), we determine using panel data econometric and logit response models the components of profit and loss accounts that generated profitability as well as the factors leading to some entities to ask for aid. The analyses show that before the beginning of the crisis there were significant differences between entities that needed aid and those that did not. The most profitable banks grounded their success in the traditional revenue component…
Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity
2005
Abstract This paper examines whether a monetary policy tightening (i.e., an increase in the domestic interest rate) was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculative pressures during the Asian financial crisis. We estimate a bivariate VECM for four Asian countries, and improve upon existing studies in two important ways. First, by using a long data span we are able to compare the effects of an interest rate rise on the nominal exchange rate during tranquil and turbulent periods. Second, we take into account the endogeneity of interest rates and identify the system by exploiting the heteroscedasticity properties of the relevant time series, following Rigobon [Identification thro…
Two Great Banking Crises and Their Economic Impact Compared: Spain 1976/1977 and 2008
2017
The 1976/1977 crisis was the most severe in Spanish history, but the losses associated with the 2008 crisis are huge. This paper compares these two great banking crises and identifies the main parallels and differences between them. Is the current crisis as severe as that of 1976? What is the impact on the banking and financial sectors? We show that the 1976 crisis is being surpassed by the 2008 crisis in terms of the decline in GDP, industrial production and unemployment, and that these two events have had at least a similar impact in terms of output gap and output loss. Finally, the financial impact measured by different financial indicators confirms the greater severity of the 2008 crisi…
Política monetaria en tiempos de pandemia: evaluación y propuesta del Helicóptero Monetario
2020
La pandemia del Covid-19 ha provocado una de las crisis más importantes desde la Gran Depresión. Ante esto, es necesaria una mayor coordinación entre la política monetaria y las políticas fiscales. En este artículo, se ha analizado el Helicóptero Monetario como posible respuesta a la crisis y como complemento a las medidas adoptadas. Tras presentar evidencia histórica de los efectos del Helicóptero Monetario, examinar los distintos ejemplos propuestos en la literatura, y evaluar sus fortalezas y debilidades, se ha articulado una propuesta para la eurozona a través del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) en coordinación con el grupo del Banco Europeo de Inversiones (BEI)
Financial crises in Spain: lessons from the last 150 years
2012
Financial crises are not unique to current financial systems. Are crises alike? Have they become more frequent, longer lasting and more severe since the 20th century? What does history tell us? The objective of this paper is to study the financial crises that have occurred in Spain over the last 150 years. We consider different types of crises (banking, currency and stock market crises), together with all their possible combinations, estimate their frequency by period and measure their length and depth. The main conclusion we obtain is that Spanish crises have been more frequent than in the rest of the world and have been more severe and more complex since 1973, as the 2007 crisis is confir…
How do Banking Crises Impact on Income Inequality?
2012
We show that banking crises have an important effect on income distribution: inequality increases before banking crisis episodes and sharply declines afterwards. We also find that, while a large government size does not per se seem to reduce inequality, a rise in financial depth (i.e. better access to credit provided by the banking sector) contributes to a more equal distribution of income.