Search results for "crisis"
showing 10 items of 860 documents
Impact of the subprime crisis on bank ratings: The effect of the hardening of rating policies and worsening of solvency
2014
Abstract This paper studies the impact of the subprime crisis on the ratings issued by the rating agencies in evaluating the solvency of banks. After ascertaining a significant worsening of ratings after the crisis, the paper hypothesises the possibility that this worsening is due not exclusively to a deterioration in the banks’ credit quality, but also to a change in the behaviour of the rating agencies. The study designs a methodology to separate the observed change in ratings into two multiplicative components: one associated with the deterioration of the banks’ solvency itself and another associated with the change in the agencies’ valuation criteria. The methodology is applied to the S…
Network-Based Computational Techniques to Determine the Risk Drivers of Bank Failures During a Systemic Banking Crisis
2018
This paper employs a computational model of solvency and liquidity contagion assessing the vulnerability of banks to systemic risk. We find that the main risk drivers relate to the financial connections a bank has and the market concentration, apart from the size of the bank triggering the contagion, while balance sheets play only a minor role. We also find that market concentration might facilitate banks to withstand liquidity shocks better while exposing them to larger solvency chocks. Our results are validated through an out-of-sample forecasting that shows that both type I and type II prediction errors are reduced if we include network characteristics in our prediction model.
4D paleoenvironmental evolution of the Early Triassic Sonoma Foreland Basin (western USA)
2017
In the wake of the Mesozoic, the Early Triassic (~251.95 Ma) corresponds to the aftermath of the most severe mass extinction of the Phanerozoic: the end-Permian crisis, when life was nearly obliterated (e.g., 90% of marine species disappeared). Consequences of this mass extinction are thought to have prevailed for several millions of years, implying a delayed recovery lasting the whole Early Triassic, if not more. Several paradigms have been established and associated to a delayed biotic recovery scenario expected to have resulted from harsh and deleterious paleoenvironments. These paradigms include a global anoxia in the marine realm, a “Lilliput” effect, and the presence of “disaster” tax…
Migration in southern Europe: The peripheral incorporation in crisis
2016
En este trabajo se analizan los resultados principales de una investigación comparativa sobre la migración, la integración social de los migrantes y las políticas públicas hacia los inmigrantes en Campania (Italia) y Extremadura (España). Nuestra perspectiva se basa en el concepto de incorporación periférica de los inmigrantes en la sociedad local. Nuestro punto de partida, por lo tanto, fue la idea de que, en estas regiones poco desarrolladas del sur de Europa, la sociedad local incluye a los inmigrantes en la medida en que ayudan en hacer frente a la globalización económica y la reducción de las políticas sociales. La investigación, realizada en 2014 principalmente a través de una encuest…
Risk management optimization for sovereign debt restructuring
2015
Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio are used to define a tail risk measure, termed "conditional Debt-at-Risk". A multi-period stochastic programming model minimizes the expected cost of debt financing subject to risk limits. It provides an operational model to handle significant aspects of debt restructuring: it collects all debt issues in a common framework, and can include contingent claims, multiple…
A Need for a Paradigm Shift in the Spanish Banking Sector? The Evolution from Regional to Multinational Banks in Spain.
2014
Since the approval of Spain¿s 2012 National Budget on March 30, 2012, some doubts and controversies have added up to many fears in the private sector regarding the measures and stimuli that the Spanish government was going to undertake. At the same time, this situation was in some measure aggravated by the financial backlog of many small and medium companies, which are and will continue, in the following years to be completely unable to comply with their financial requirements. In line with Boronat Ombuena¿s (2009a, 2009b, 2010, 2012) requirements in his new approach to finance and private sector liaisons, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the recent years of the credit …
Interactions between financial stress and economic activity for the U.S.: A time- and frequency-varying analysis using wavelets
2018
Abstract This paper examines the interactions between the main U.S. financial stress indices and several measures of economic activity in the time–frequency domain using a number of continuous cross-wavelet tools, including the usual wavelet squared coherence and phase difference as well as two new summary wavelet-based measures. The empirical results show that the relationship between financial stress and the U.S. real economy varies considerably over time and depending on the time horizon considered. A significant adverse effect of financial stress on U.S. economic activity is observed since the onset of the subprime mortgage crisis in the summer of 2007, indicating that the impact of fin…
The geography of Spanish bank branches
2014
This article analyzes the determinants of bank branch location in Spain taking the role of geography explicitly into account. After a long period of intense territorial expansion, especially by savings banks, many of these firms are now involved in merger processes triggered off by the financial crisis, most of which entail the closing of many branches. However, given the contributions of this type of banks to limit financial exclusion, this process might exacerbate the consequences of the crisis for some disadvantaged social groups. Related problems such as new banking regulation initiatives (Basel III), or the current excess capacity in the sector add further relevance to this problem. We…
Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system
2007
In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne and Masson (J Int Econ 50:327–350, 2000) regarding the evaluation of currency crisis. We contribute to the existing literature proposing the use of Markov regime-switching with time-varying transition probability model. Our empirical results suggest that the currency crises of the EMS were not due only to market expectations driven by external uncertainty, or ‘sunspots’, but also to fundamental variabl…
THE KEY ROLE OF LIQUIDITY FLUCTUATIONS IN DETERMINING LARGE PRICE CHANGES
2005
Recent empirical analyses have shown that liquidity fluctuations are important for understanding large price changes of financial assets. These liquidity fluctuations are quantified by gaps in the order book, corresponding to blocks of adjacent price levels containing no quotes. Here we study the statistical properties of the state of the limit order book for 16 stocks traded at the London Stock Exchange (LSE). We show that the time series of the first three gaps are characterized by fat tails in the probability distribution and are described by long memory processes.