Search results for "election"
showing 10 items of 2159 documents
Model selection in linear mixed-effect models
2019
Linear mixed-effects models are a class of models widely used for analyzing different types of data: longitudinal, clustered and panel data. Many fields, in which a statistical methodology is required, involve the employment of linear mixed models, such as biology, chemistry, medicine, finance and so forth. One of the most important processes, in a statistical analysis, is given by model selection. Hence, since there are a large number of linear mixed model selection procedures available in the literature, a pressing issue is how to identify the best approach to adopt in a specific case. We outline mainly all approaches focusing on the part of the model subject to selection (fixed and/or ra…
Comparison between splines and fractional polynomials for multivariable model building with continuous covariates: a simulation study with continuous…
2012
In observational studies, many continuous or categorical covariates may be related to an outcome. Various spline-based procedures or the multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) procedure can be used to identify important variables and functional forms for continuous covariates. This is the main aim of an explanatory model, as opposed to a model only for prediction. The type of analysis often guides the complexity of the final model. Spline-based procedures and MFP have tuning parameters for choosing the required complexity. To compare model selection approaches, we perform a simulation study in the linear regression context based on a data structure intended to reflect realistic biomedica…
On stability issues in deriving multivariable regression models
2014
In many areas of science where empirical data are analyzed, a task is often to identify important variables with influence on an outcome. Most often this is done by using a variable selection strategy in the context of a multivariable regression model. Using a study on ozone effects in children (n = 496, 24 covariates), we will discuss aspects relevant for deriving a suitable model. With an emphasis on model stability, we will explore and illustrate differences between predictive models and explanatory models, the key role of stopping criteria, and the value of bootstrap resampling (with and without replacement). Bootstrap resampling will be used to assess variable selection stability, to d…
Measure differential inclusions: existence results and minimum problems
2020
AbstractWe focus on a very general problem in the theory of dynamic systems, namely that of studying measure differential inclusions with varying measures. The multifunction on the right hand side has compact non-necessarily convex values in a real Euclidean space and satisfies bounded variation hypotheses with respect to the Pompeiu excess (and not to the Hausdorff-Pompeiu distance, as usually in literature). This is possible due to the use of interesting selection principles for excess bounded variation set-valued mappings. Conditions for the minimization of a generic functional with respect to a family of measures generated by equiregulated left-continuous, nondecreasing functions and to…
Designing and pricing guarantee options in defined contribution pension plans
2015
Abstract The shift from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) is pervasive among pension funds, due to demographic changes and macroeconomic pressures. In DB all risks are borne by the provider, while in plain vanilla DC all risks are borne by the beneficiary. However, for DC to provide income security some kind of guarantee is required. A minimum guarantee clause can be modeled as a put option written on some underlying reference portfolio and we develop a discrete model that selects the reference portfolio to minimize the cost of a guarantee. While the relation DB–DC is typically viewed as a binary one, the model shows how to price a wide range of guarantees creating a continu…
Ancestral processes in population genetics-the coalescent.
2000
A special stochastic process, called the coalescent, is of fundamental interest in population genetics. For a large class of population models this process is the appropriate tool to analyse the ancestral structure of a sample of n individuals or genes, if the total number of individuals in the population is sufficiently large. A corresponding convergence theorem was first proved by Kingman in 1982 for the Wright-Fisher model and the Moran model. Generalizations to a large class of exchangeable population models and to models with overlying mutation processes followed shortly later. One speaks of the "robustness of the coalescent, as this process appears in many models as the total populati…
On the usage of joint diagonalization in multivariate statistics
2022
Scatter matrices generalize the covariance matrix and are useful in many multivariate data analysis methods, including well-known principal component analysis (PCA), which is based on the diagonalization of the covariance matrix. The simultaneous diagonalization of two or more scatter matrices goes beyond PCA and is used more and more often. In this paper, we offer an overview of many methods that are based on a joint diagonalization. These methods range from the unsupervised context with invariant coordinate selection and blind source separation, which includes independent component analysis, to the supervised context with discriminant analysis and sliced inverse regression. They also enco…
A decision support system methodology for forecasting of time series based on soft computing
2006
Exponential procedures are widely used as forecasting techniques for inventory control and business planning. A number of modifications to the generalized exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) approach to forecasting univariate time series is presented, which have been adapted into a tool for decision support systems. This methodology unifies the phases of estimation and model selection into just one optimization framework which permits the identification of robust solutions. This procedure may provide forecasts from different versions of exponential smoothing by fitting the updated formulas of Holt-Winters and selects the best method using a fuzzy multicriteria approach. The elements of the…
The Induced Smoothed lasso: A practical framework for hypothesis testing in high dimensional regression.
2020
This paper focuses on hypothesis testing in lasso regression, when one is interested in judging statistical significance for the regression coefficients in the regression equation involving a lot of covariates. To get reliable p-values, we propose a new lasso-type estimator relying on the idea of induced smoothing which allows to obtain appropriate covariance matrix and Wald statistic relatively easily. Some simulation experiments reveal that our approach exhibits good performance when contrasted with the recent inferential tools in the lasso framework. Two real data analyses are presented to illustrate the proposed framework in practice.
Selecting the tuning parameter in penalized Gaussian graphical models
2019
Penalized inference of Gaussian graphical models is a way to assess the conditional independence structure in multivariate problems. In this setting, the conditional independence structure, corresponding to a graph, is related to the choice of the tuning parameter, which determines the model complexity or degrees of freedom. There has been little research on the degrees of freedom for penalized Gaussian graphical models. In this paper, we propose an estimator of the degrees of freedom in $$\ell _1$$ -penalized Gaussian graphical models. Specifically, we derive an estimator inspired by the generalized information criterion and propose to use this estimator as the bias term for two informatio…