Search results for "elections"
showing 10 items of 120 documents
When does Regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes
2018
We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non‐experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias‐corrected RDD estimates that apply robust inference are, however, in line with the experimental estimate. Therefore, state‐of‐the‐art implementation of RDD can meet the re…
Identity, Instrumental Self-Interest and Institutional Evaluations: Explaining Public Opinion on Common European Policies in Foreign Affairs and Defe…
2008
This paper addresses public opinion on common European policies in foreign affairs and defence. It proposes three models of support for common policies in these fields. Drawing on Eurobarometer data, the analysis shows that instrumental self-interest and territorial identities contribute considerably to explaining support for common foreign affairs and defence policies. Moreover, support for common policies is strongly driven by domain-specific evaluations of the European Union's performance. These findings suggest that popular support for common European policies in foreign affairs and defence has an experiential base. Thus, elites have an incentive to respond to public opinion when makin…
Correcting Maura: Incidence and Amendment of Article 29 in the Province of Valencia during the Thirties
2019
El artículo 29 de la Ley electoral de 1907 establecía que no habría elección en caso de que hubiera tantos candidatos como puestos a cubrir en unos comicios. Y seguía vigente el 12 de abril de 1931, cuando se celebraron las elecciones municipales que dieron vida a la Segunda República. Sus consecuencias –la existencia de concejales y ayuntamientos no electos, siguieron presentes hasta las elecciones municipales parciales de abril de 1933. El propósito del presente artículo es mostrar la incidencia y la corrección del artículo 29 en la provincia de Valencia. Un segundo objetivo consiste en comparar, desde una nueva perspectiva, su incidencia en las provincias que albergaban los grandes núcle…
La voix des outsiders ? Internet dans les partis politiques américains
2011
Chapitre 6.; International audience; Les superlatifs abondent quand on évoque les modifications électorales liées à internet aux États-Unis. Dick Morris, un ancien conseiller de Bill Clinton, parle ainsi d’un « cinquième pouvoir », celui des réseaux en ligne. Le fait est que, depuis le milieu des années 2000, les candidats se sont emparés de toutes les possibilités offertes par internet : financement de l’effort de campagne, commentaire...
The assignment of powers in an open-ended European Union
2003
Presented at CESIFO Conference “A Constitution for the EU”, February 2003; International audience; A major characteristic of the European Union is its transitional or evolving nature, in particular with regard to the assignment of powers between the two main levels of government. More precisely, under current constitutional arrangements, this evolving nature takes the form of an integration process which tends to be monotonous, that is, which can only with great difficulty be reversed. The paper is mainly devoted to the explanation of how this comes about and what effects this has on other features of the process. As a concluding remark, however, it suggests that an additional criterion for…
Horizontal competition in multilevel governmental settings
2013
28 pages; Governments situated on the same level of a multi-level governmental system compete with each other as well as with governments placed higher or lower. This paper is concerned with horizontal competition only. It discusses both competition based on the mobility of agents and competition based on comparisons of performance across jurisdictions - i.e., yardstick competition. With regard to the first kind, the focus is on the capacity of governments and voters to decide policies in spite of the mobility of agents. Some attention is also given to non-standard mechanisms in which mobility is manipulated so as to change the structure of the electorate. The paper considers two forms of h…
How significant is yardstick competition among governments? Three reasons to dig deeper
2013
22 pages; The significance of yardstick competition among governments is now confirmed with regard to fiscal variables. This is an important result but the significance of the mechanism must also be sought in a context broader than that of fiscal federalism and without limitation to relations and processes fully observable. Three points are made. Even in the case of governments trying to mimic each other over a single variable, additional variables are involved in an important way. Yardstick competition can be latent without being ineffective. Its major effect, then, is to set bounds to the choices that office-holders could think of making. Finally, the mechanism is a hidden albeit essentia…
Sag, wie hältst Du's mit Grün-Rot? Die grün-rote Landesregierung im Urteil der Wähler 2011 bis 2015
2016
In unserem Beitrag analysieren wir, wie die Burgerinnen und Burger den Regierungswechsel und die Ubernahme der Regierungsgeschafte durch die neue grun-rote Regierung wahrgenommen, wie sich die Regierungs- und Parteienzufriedenheit (ausgedruckt durch die hypothetische Wahlentscheidung) im Zeitverlauf entwickelt haben und was die Determinanten der Zufriedenheit sind. Unsere Analysen basieren dabei auf insgesamt sechs reprasentativen telefonischen Befragungen im Zeitraum von November 2011 bis Oktober 2015. Wir konnen zeigen, dass im Laufe der Legislaturperiode die vor der Wahl stattgefundenen Ereignisse mehr und mehr an Bedeutung fur die Bewertung der Regierungsleistung verlieren. Die Landesre…
Single-Target Implicit Association Tests (ST-IAT) Predict Voting Behavior of Decided and Undecided Voters in Swiss Referendums
2016
Undecided voters represent a major challenge to political pollsters. Recently, political psychologists have proposed the use of implicit association tests (IAT) to measure implicit attitudes toward political parties and candidates and predict voting behavior of undecided voters. A number of studies have shown that both implicit and explicit (i.e., self-reported) attitudes contribute to the prediction of voting behavior. More importantly, recent research suggests that implicit attitudes may be more useful for predicting the vote of undecided voters in the case of specific political issues rather than elections. Due to its direct-democratic political system, Switzerland represents an ideal pl…
Quantitative Analysis of Gender Stereotypes and Information Aggregation in a National Election
2013
By analyzing a database of a questionnaire answered by a large majority of candidates and elected in a parliamentary election, we quantitatively verify that (i) female candidates on average present political profiles which are more compassionate and more concerned with social welfare issues than male candidates and (ii) the voting procedure acts as a process of information aggregation. Our results show that information aggregation proceeds with at least two distinct paths. In the first case candidates characterize themselves with a political profile aiming to describe the profile of the majority of voters. This is typically the case of candidates of political parties which are competing for…