Search results for "ennusteet"
showing 10 items of 64 documents
Aikasarjamallit apuna Suomen talouden seurannassa
2019
Viimeisten vuosikymmenien aikana kansainvälisessä ekonometrisessa tutkimuskirjallisuudessa on esitetty useita makrotaloudellista tilaa kuvaavien muuttujien informaatiota yhdistäviä lyhyen aikavälin mallinnus- ja ennustemenetelmiä. Näitä ns. nowcasting-menetelmiä on myös onnistuneesti hyödynnetty ja sovellettu Suomen talouden seurantaan. Tässä artikkelissa esittelemme katsauksen monella taholla tehtyyn kehitystyöhön ja näiden hankkeiden yhteydessä saatuihin tuloksiin Suomen aineiston tapauksessa. Suomen taloutta koskevien suhdanneindeksien hyödyntämisen myötä suhdanteiden käännepisteiden määrittäminen on tarkempaa ja käännepisteiden tuottamia taantumajaksoja voidaan vastaavasti ennustaa binä…
Kassavirtamallin ja lisäarvomallin toimivuus Mandatum osaketutkimuksen vuoden 2000 analyyseissä
2001
Predicting the age at natural menopause in middle-aged women
2021
Objective To predict the age at natural menopause (ANM). Methods Cox models with time-dependent covariates were utilized for ANM prediction using longitudinal data from 47 to 55-year-old women (n = 279) participating in the Estrogenic Regulation of Muscle Apoptosis study. The ANM was assessed retrospectively for 105 women using bleeding diaries. The predictors were chosen from the set of 32 covariates by using the lasso regression (model 1). Another easy-to-access model (model 2) was created by using a subset of 16 self-reported covariates. The predictive performance was quantified with c-indices and by studying the means and standard deviations of absolute errors (MAE ± SD) between the pre…
Medicine of the future: How and who is going to treat us?
2023
Medicine’s ability to quickly respond to challenges raises questions from researchers, practitioners, and society as a whole. Our task in this study was to identify key and atypical current factors influencing the development of medicine and to predict the development of medicine in the short, medium, and long term. To implement our study, we selected 22 medical experts and applied the three-level Delphi method. The current trends caused by COVID-19 have a short-term impact, but they will launch other drivers that will transform the healthcare industry. Well-being technologies, data-informed personalization, and climate change will become key drivers for the development of medicine over the…
Is there support for the sticky information models in the Michigan inflation expectation data?
2007
Time-delay control for stabilization of the Shapovalov mid-size firm model
2020
Control and stabilization of irregular and unstable behavior of dynamic systems (including chaotic processes) are interdisciplinary problems of interest to a variety of scientific fields and applications. Using the control methods allows improvements in forecasting the dynamics of unstable economic processes and offers opportunities for governments, central banks, and other policy makers to modify the behaviour of the economic system to achieve its best performance. One effective method for control of chaos and computation of unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) is the unstable delay feedback control (UDFC) approach, suggested by K. Pyragas. This paper proposes the application of the Pyragas' me…
The prognostic role of tumor budding and tumor-stroma ratio in pulmonary metastasis of colorectal carcinoma
2023
Objective To evaluate the prognostic value of tumor budding and tumor-stroma ratio (TSR) in resected pulmonary metastases of colorectal carcinoma (CRC). Methods In total, 106 pulmonary metastasectomies were performed to 74 patients in two study hospitals during 2000–2020. All relevant clinical data were retrospectively collected. Tumor budding based on the International Tumor Budding Consensus Conference recommendations and TSR in the first resected pulmonary metastases and primary tumors were evaluated from diagnostic hematoxylin-eosin-stained histopathological slides. Results 60 patients (85.7%) had low tumor budding (≤5 buds/field) and 10 patients (14.3%) had high tumor budding (>5 buds/…
Cognitive predictors of counting skills
2018
Rote counting skills have found to be a strong predictor of later arithmetic and reading fluency. However, knowledge of the underlying cognitive factors influencing counting skill is very limited. Present study examined to what extent language skills (phonology, vocabulary, and morphology), nonverbal reasoning skills, and memory at the age of five could explain counting skill at the beginning of first grade. Gender, parents’ education level and child’s persistence were included as control variables. The question was examined in a longitudinal sample (N = 101) with a structural equation model. Results showed that language skills together with memory, nonverbal reasoning skills and parent’s e…
Channel Increment Strategy-Based 1D Convolutional Neural Networks for Seizure Prediction Using Intracranial EEG
2022
The application of intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) to predict seizures remains challenging. Although channel selection has been utilized in seizure prediction and detection studies, most of them focus on the combination with conventional machine learning methods. Thus, channel selection combined with deep learning methods can be further analyzed in the field of seizure prediction. Given this, in this work, a novel iEEG-based deep learning method of One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D-CNN) combined with channel increment strategy was proposed for the effective seizure prediction. First, we used 4-sec sliding windows without overlap to segment iEEG signals. Then, 4-sec …
Eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen sovellus alkoholikuolleisuuden ennustamiseksi
2018
Eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmillä voidaan ennustaa tulevia havaintoja. Yksinkertaisen eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmällä ennustetaan tulevien havaintojen tasoa, kun taas Holtin lokaalin lineaarisen trendin menetelmä mahdollistaa myös aikasarjan trendin ennustamisen. Näiden menetelmien tarvitsemat tasoitusparametrit saatiin uskottavuusfunktioita optimoimalla. Esiteltyjä menetelmiä sovellettiin vertailemalla suomalaisten miesten ja naisten alkoholikuolleisuutta eri 5-vuotisluokissa vuosina 1969-2016. Havaintojen oletettiin tässä olevan Poisson-jakautuneita, joten tasoitusparametrit saatiin optimoimalla Poisson-jakauman uskottavuusfunktiota. Nämä optimoimalla saadut tasoituspa…