Search results for "error"
showing 10 items of 1643 documents
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL TOURISM: NEW EVIDENCE
2008
This paper analyses the impact of terrorist activity on international tourist flows. To this end, we have estimated a cross‐sectional gravity equation for tourism from the G‐7 countries to a sample of 134 destinations over the period 2001–2003. Within this framework, we evaluate the deviation from ‘normal’ tourist flows due to terrorist activity, which is considered as negative advertising for the affected country. The analysis suggests that both domestic victims and international attacks are relevant factors when foreign tourists make their choice. This result is robust under alternative specifications. Moreover, the impact of terrorism is more severe in developing countries. The author is…
Forecasting Errors of New Venture Survival
2014
This article studies entrepreneurs' forecast errors around market entry. Using data on nascent entrepreneurs in the U.S. and start-ups in Finland, we find that besides being overoptimistic on average in both countries, entrepreneurs' survival expectations can barely distinguish survival from exits. Moreover, about one fourth of the entrepreneurs do not provide an estimate for the survival of a typical venture. However, among those that do provide it, the estimates are less overoptimistic. We also compare the forecast accuracy of entrepreneurs to those of macroeconomic forecasters. Our findings provide guidance for the development of positive theories of entrepreneurial belief formation and …
El valor de la Fisiocracia en su propio tiempo: un análisis crítico
2009
The value of the physiocratic doctrine is examined with an historical-analytical approach that takes into account both the French reality of the mid 18th century and the internal consideration of the doctrine. Starting from the overwhelming opposition of the French contemporaries, the three areas of the phyisiocrats’ system are critically reviewed: the philosophical-political framework, the theoretical economic analysis and the main maxims of the economic government. We conclude that Physiocracy, together with presenting some analytical advances, diagnosed the French economy inadequately, incurred in outstanding economic errors and proposed, within the political framework of severe “legal d…
Wage leadership models: A country-by-country analysis of the EMU
2014
Abstract According to the theory of wage leadership, if there is free inter-sectoral labor mobility, changes in the level of the wage in the leading sector cause changes in the same direction in other sectors' wage. Moreover, since the traded sector (i.e. Industry) is affected by international competitive pressure, it should act as the leader, because this would be conducive to wage restraint. We apply a Vector Error Correction Model on four macro sectors (Industry, Services, Construction and the Public Sector) in ten EMU countries to test for wage leadership and wage adaptability. Our results show significant cross-country differences, with the Public Sector acting as the leader in Germany…
A Test of Covariance-Matrix Forecasting Methods
2015
Providing a more accurate covariance matrix forecast can substantially improve the performance of optimized portfolios. Using out-of-sample tests, in this article the author evaluates alternative covariance matrix-forecasting methods by looking at: (1) their forecast accuracy, (2) their ability to track the volatility of a minimum-variance portfolio, and (3) their ability to keep the volatility of a minimum-variance portfolio at a target level. The author finds large differences between the methods. The results suggest that shrinking the sample covariance matrix improves neither the forecast accuracy nor the performance of minimum-variance portfolios. In contrast, switching from the sample …
Educational attainment in the OECD, 1960-2010. Updated series and a comparison with other sources
2015
© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. This paper describes the construction of updated series on the educational attainment of the adult population for a sample of 22 OECD countries covering the period 1960-2010. These series are then compared with (the OECD subsample of) the latest available version of other cross-country data sets on average years of schooling that are commonly used in the literature. Finally, statistical measures of the information content of the different series are constructed using the procedure developed by Krueger and Lindhal (K&L, 2001) and de la Fuente and Doménech (D&D, 2006). The exercise shows that there are important differences in quality across data sets and suggests that su…
Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes
2022
Background Vaccination against the coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV-2) is understood to be the key way out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited evidence exists on the determinants of vaccine rollouts and their health effects at the country level. Objective Examine the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. Methods Ordinary least squares regressions with standard errors clustered at the country level for Cross-section and Panel daily data of vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for an unbalanced sample of about 200 countries during the period 16 December 2020 to 20 June 2021. Results…
On the property of diffusion in the spatial error model.
2005
International audience; The aim of this paper is to illustrate the property of global spillover effects in the first-order spatial autoregressive error model and the associated diffusion process of spatial shocks. An application is provided on a sample of 145 regions over 1989–1999 and highlights the most influential regions.
Introduction to Tourism Security
2020
The present essay review explores the problem of terrorism and security in tourism fields. Certainly, plans and policies provided by guide-books are not being followed in disaster-contests simply chaos and disorder are the nature of emergencies. Beyond any protocol, crises and security are not properly defined by scholars. In this essay-review, we will not pay attention to define what tourism security means, lest by the lens of three senior scholars, Sevil Somnez, Abraham Pizam and Peter Tarlow, who have accomplished this task. They have explored not only the roots of terrorism but security over 20 years. Despite the criticism, they deserve recognition for this legacy. Based on substantial …
Ocean acidification affects fish spawning but not paternity at CO2 seeps
2016
Fish exhibit impaired sensory function and altered behaviour at levels of ocean acidification expected to occur owing to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions during this century. We provide the first evidence of the effects of ocean acidification on reproductive behaviour of fish in the wild. Satellite and sneaker male ocellated wrasse (Symphodus ocellatus) compete to fertilize eggs guarded by dominant nesting males. Key mating behaviours such as dominant male courtship and nest defence did not differ between sites with ambient versus elevated CO2 concentrations. Dominant males did, however, experience significantly lower rates of pair spawning at elevated CO2 levels. Despite the higher r…