Search results for "fiscal"

showing 10 items of 448 documents

Fiscal adjustments and income inequality: a first assessment

2012

Using a statistical approach to identify fiscal adjustments, we find that fiscal consolidation appears to shorten the income gap. Fiscal austerity plans that succeed in bringing public debt to a sustainable path seem to be more likely to reduce inequality. Expansionary fiscal adjustments are particularly important to promote changes in the income distribution.

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsInequalitymedia_common.quotation_subjectSocial SciencesOpennessKuznets curveEconomic inequalityIncome distributionDebt0502 economics and businessEconomics050207 economicsKuznets curve10. No inequalityInequality fiscal consolidation Kuznets curve opennessmedia_common050208 finance05 social sciences1. No povertySettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaFiscal unionAusterityIncome inequality metricsInequalityFiscal consolidation8. Economic growth
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Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability

2016

Using data for a large panel of countries, this paper investigates the role played by income inequality and fiscal stimuli episodes in shaping the likelihood of political stability. By means of Tobit estimations, we show that a rise in inequality increases the probability of government crises. However, such adverse distributional effect is reduced when expansionary or increasingly expansionary fiscal stimuli episodes or successful fiscal stimuli programs are put in place.

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsInequalitymedia_common.quotation_subjecthealth care facilities manpower and servicesPolitical environmentStability (learning theory)Social SciencesInstitutional qualityPoliticsExpansionary policieEconomic inequalityIncome distributionAccounting0502 economics and business050602 political science & public administrationEconomicsTobit model050207 economicshealth care economics and organizationsmedia_commonTobit regressionGovernment05 social sciencesCiências Sociais::Economia e GestãoSettore SECS-P/02 Politica Economicasocial sciences0506 political scienceFiscal stimuliExpansionary policies PoliticalExpansionary policiesIncome distribution:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]FinancePublic finance
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The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies

2015

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting ou…

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsInvestment strategymedia_common.quotation_subjectGross private domestic investmentPublic policyMonetary economicsForeign direct investmentGrowthDebtSupply and demandDebtReturn on investment0502 economics and businessEconomics050207 economicsOpen-ended investment companyInvestment performancePublic investmentGeneral Environmental Sciencemedia_common050208 finance05 social sciencesEconometric models;Developed countries;Public investment;Infrastructure;OECD;Fiscal policy;Time series;Growth Debt investment private investment capital Demand and Supply Energy and the Macroeconomy Government Policy Debt.Investment (macroeconomics)Fiscal policyEconometric modelUnemploymentGeneral Earth and Planetary SciencesUmbrella fundPublic financeFiscal policy
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FISCAL READJUSTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES: A NONLINEAR TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

2009

We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance of nonlinear models. We find evidence that fiscal authorities intervene to reduce real per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold and that fiscal adjustment takes place primarily by cutting government expenditure. The results of out-of-sample density forecast and probability forecasts suggest that a shift from a univariate autoregressive model to a multivariate model improves fore…

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsMultivariate statisticsUnivariateRegression analysisGeneral Business Management and AccountingNonlinear time series analysisAutoregressive modelnon line time series; forecasting; government solvencyValue (economics)Per capitaEconomicsEconometricsFiscal adjustmentThreshold Cointegration Forecasting Deficit Sustainability
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The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD countries

2012

The aim of this paper is to assess the short term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1% of social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage point, which, given the share of social spending to GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to the one of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending in Health and Unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consump…

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsPrivate consumptionmedia_common.quotation_subjectConsumer spendingjel:E60Settore SECS-P/02 Politica Economicajel:H30Oecd countriesFiscal policysocial spendingReal gross domestic productAccountingUnemploymentEconomicsFiscal Policy; Social Spending; Economic Activity.Demographic economicsEmpirical evidenceFinancemedia_common
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Stabilization effects of social spending: Empirical evidence from a panel of OECD countries

2010

Abstract The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of social spending to smooth output shocks and to provide stabilization. The results show that overall social spending is able to smooth about 15 percent of a shock to GDP. Among its sub-categories, social spending devoted to Old Age, Health and Unemployment are those that contribute more to provide smoothing. Moreover, the stabilization effects of social spending are significantly larger in those countries where the size of social spending is higher, and in countries in which social spending is less volatile. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsShock (economics)media_common.quotation_subjectUnemploymentEconomicsDemographic economicsOecd countriesEmpirical evidenceSoical spendingFinanceFiscal policymedia_commonThe North American Journal of Economics and Finance
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FISCAL POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY AND FINITE HORIZONS

2003

In this paper we analyse the stabilisation properties of distortionary taxes in a New Keynesian model with overlapping generations of finitely-lived consumers. In this framework, government debt is part of net wealth and this adds a number of interesting channels through which fiscal policy could affect output and inflation. Output volatility, in presence of technology shocks, is not substantially affected by the operation of automatic stabilisers but we find interesting composition effects. While the presence of finitely-lived households strengthens the stabilisation performance of distortionary taxes through the reduction of the volatility of consumption, it does so at the cost of more vo…

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsSociology and Political Sciencemedia_common.quotation_subjectGovernment debtjel:E21jel:E32jel:E63Overlapping generations modelFiscal policyNew Keynesian economicsEconomicsNational wealthVolatility (finance)Welfaremedia_commonScottish Journal of Political Economy
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A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability

2015

Abstract In this paper, we reassess the relationship between primary deficit and lagged debt to GDP ratio (Bohn, 1998), to test for US debt sustainability over the period 1795–2012. Our analysis is rooted in the wavelet domain enabling the detection of interesting patterns and otherwise hidden information. We find evidence of long term fiscal sustainability but only up until 1995 and also we show that governments tend to respond more vigorously to budget deficits when the level of debt is high rather than low.

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsWavelet coherencemedia_common.quotation_subjecteducationDebt-to-GDP ratioPrimary deficitSettore SECS-P/05 - EconometriahumanitiesTerm (time)WaveletDebtSustainabilityEconomicsWavelet coherence Public debt sustainability Time–frequency decompositionFiscal sustainabilityhealth care economics and organizationsmedia_common
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Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices

2013

This paper tests for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the US fiscal policy. By modeling government spending and taxes as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS), we find that taxes significantly adjust in a nonlinear fashion to asset prices. In particular, taxes respond to housing and (to a smaller extent) to stock price changes during normal times. However, at periods characterized by high financial volatility, government taxation only counteracts stock market developments (and not the dynamics of the housing sector). As for government spending, it is neutral vis-a-vis the asset market cycles. We conclude that, correcting the fiscal balance and, notably, the rev…

MacroeconomicsEconomics and Econometricsasset pricesprobabilitySocial SciencesMarkov process[SHS]Humanities and Social Sciencessymbols.namesakeMarkov0502 economics and businessEconomicsRevenueMarkov processprocessAsset (economics)050207 economics050205 econometrics Time-varying transition probabilityGovernment spendingGovernmentMarkov chain05 social sciencesTime-varying transition probability Markov processSettore SECS-P/02 Politica Economicatransition[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and FinanceAsset pricesFiscal policyTime-varyingAsset pricesymbolsStock marketFiscal policy
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Assessing long-term fiscal developments : a new approach

2011

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue – responsiveness and persistence–, a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers, we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Drawing on quarterly data, we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method for eight European Union countries plus the US. The results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance (including those related to the current crisis) are reflected in the estimates of persistence …

MacroeconomicsEconomics and Econometricsjel:E62Fiscal deterioration Fiscal SustainabilitySocial SciencesFinanzpolitikFiscal SustainabilityFiscal deteriorationFiscal DeteriorationÖffentlicher HaushaltPolitischer Konjunkturzyklus0502 economics and businessFiscal Deterioration fiscal sustainabilityddc:330EconomicsRevenuemedia_common.cataloged_instance050207 economicsEuropean unionH50Dezentralisierung050205 econometrics media_commonGovernment spendingFiscalFiscal Deterioration Fiscal Sustainability.05 social sciencesSettore SECS-P/02 Politica Economicajel:H50Fiscal sustainabilityTerm (time)Government revenuePanelEU-StaatenFiscal sustainabilityE62Öffentliche AusgabenFinance
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