Search results for "forecast"

Sea breeze thunderstorms in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. Neighborhood verification of HIRLAM and HARMONIE precipitation forecasts

2014

In this study we investigated sea breeze thunderstorms with intense convective activity (i.e., heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds) that occurred over the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Spain) and were missed by the operational HIRLAM model. We used two grid-spacing setups (5.0. km and 2.5. km) of the hydrostatic HIRLAM model, and the non-hydrostatic spectral HARMONIE suite (2.5. km), to simulate isolated convection associated with sea breezes. The overall aim is to estimate the ability of these three experimental setups, in particular the HARMONIE model as the forthcoming operational numerical weather prediction in most European Weather Services, to correctly simulate convective precipitation…

Multi-model simulations of a convective situation in low-mountain terrain in central Europe

2008

The goal of the present study is to investigate the variability of simulated convective precipitation by three convection-resolving models using different set-ups and initial and boundary conditions. The COSMO, MM5 and WRF models have been used to simulate the atmospheric situation on 12 July 2006, when local convection occurred in central Europe under weak synoptic forcing. The focus of this investigation is on the convective precipitation in the northern Black Forest in South-West Germany. The precipitation fields from the nine model simulations differ considerably. Six simulations capture the convective character of the event. However, they differ considerably in the location and timing …

Classification of precipitation events with a convective response timescale and their forecasting characteristics

2011

[1] The convective timescale τc, which is mainly determined by the ratio of CAPE and precipitation rate, provides a physically-based measure to distinguish equilibrium and non-equilibrium convection. A statistical analysis of this timescale, based upon observational data from radiosonde ascents, rain gauges, and radar for seven warm seasons in Germany, reveals that the equilibrium and non-equilibrium regimes can be regarded as extremes of a continuous distribution. The two regimes characterize very different interactions between the large-scale flow and convection. The quality of precipitation forecasts from a non-hydrostatic regional weather prediction model with parameterized convection d…

The future of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) in biology and medicine.

2000

Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy

2021

Travel restrictions and social distancing imposed to curb the spread of the new coronavirus have been strongly hitting tourism since March 2020. Tourism forecasting literature addressed the effects of shocks in contexts characterized by a predictable route to recovery. COVID-19 is without precedents. In this article, monthly overnight stays for the period January 2010 to December 2020 are used to estimate the impact of the pandemic in Lombardy, Italy’s most affected region. A model-based approach is implemented, and the number of overnight stays up to December 2023 is forecasted. Four models are compared. Estimation results from an augmented SARIMA model suggest that, provided a new lockdo…

L-Band vegetation optical depth for crop phenology monitoring and crop yield assessment

2018

Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD) at L-band is highly sensitive to the water content and above-ground biomass of vegetation. Hence, it has great potential for monitoring crop phenology and for providing crop yield forecasts. Recently, the Multi-Temporal Dual Channel Algorithm (MT -DCA) has been proposed to retrieve L-band VOD from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) measurements. In previous research, SMAP VOD has been compared to crop phenology and has been used to derive crop yield estimates. Here, we review and expand these initial research studies. In particular, we quantify the capability of VOD to detect different crop stages, and test different VOD metrics (i.e., maximum, range and inte…

Inclusive education in Finland: present and future perspectives.

1994

The movement to integrate special education students into normal school classes started to develop in Finland in the 1960s. At the same time, the number of students labeled “special” in the Finnish comprehensive school system exploded from 2% to 17% of all school children. Presently, 84% of all special education placements are part-time placements. Special schools and special classes comprise 15% of all special education placements, while full inclusion is only 1% of all special education placements. Some factors affecting the current integration of special students and the development of integration are discussed.

Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast

2019

This study analyzes forecasts of Bitcoin price using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models. Employing the static forecast approach, we forecast next-day Bitcoin price both with and without re-estimation of the forecast model for each step. For cross-validation of forecast results, we consider two different training and test samples. In the first training-sample, NNAR performs better than ARIMA, while ARIMA outperforms NNAR in the second training-sample. Additionally, ARIMA with model re-estimation at each step outperforms NNAR in the two test-sample forecast periods. The Diebold Mariano test confirms the superiority of forecast …

#EEGManyLabs

2021

There is growing awareness across the neuroscience community that the replicability of findings about the relationship between brain activity and cognitive phenomena can be improved by conducting studies with high statistical power that adhere to well-defined and standardised analysis pipelines. Inspired by recent efforts from the psychological sciences, and with the desire to examine some of the foundational findings using electroencephalog-raphy (EEG), we have launched #EEGManyLabs, a large-scale international collaborative replication effort. Since its discovery in the early 20th century, EEG has had a profound in-fluence on our understanding of human cognition, but there is limited evid…

IMI – Oral biopharmaceutics tools project – Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 4: Prediction accuracy and software comparisons with…

2020

Oral drug absorption is a complex process depending on many factors, including the physicochemical properties of the drug, formulation characteristics and their interplay with gastrointestinal physiology and biology. Physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models integrate all available information on gastro-intestinal system with drug and formulation data to predict oral drug absorption. The latter together with in vitro-in vivo extrapolation and other preclinical data on drug disposition can be used to predict plasma concentration-time profiles in silico. Despite recent successes of PBPK in many areas of drug development, an improvement in their utility for evaluating oral absorption i…