Search results for "forecast"
showing 10 items of 417 documents
Where do we go from here? Membrane protein research beyond the structure-function horizon.
2018
Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics
2015
The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semantic and statistical methods. Here we show that the aggregation of web users' behavior can be elicited to overcome this problem in a hard to predict complex system, namely the financial market. Specifically, our in-sample analysis shows that the combined use of sentiment analysis of news and browsing activity of users of Yahoo! Finance greatly helps forecasting intra-day and dai…
Towards development of a statistical framework to evaluate myotonic dystrophy type 1 mRNA biomarkers in the context of a clinical trial
2020
AbstractMyotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is a rare genetic disorder, characterised by muscular dystrophy, myotonia, and other symptoms. DM1 is caused by the expansion of a CTG repeat in the 3’-untranslated region of DMPK. Longer CTG expansions are associated with greater symptom severity and earlier age at onset. The primary mechanism of pathogenesis is thought to be mediated by a gain of function of the CUG-containing RNA, that leads to trans-dysregulation of RNA metabolism of many other genes. Specifically, the alternative splicing (AS) and alternative polyadenylation (APA) of many genes is known to be disrupted. In the context of clinical trials of emerging DM1 treatments, it is important…
Innovations in assisted reproductive technologies: impact on contemporary donor egg practice and future advances.
2018
Innovations in assisted reproductive technologies (ART) have driven progress in the donor egg field since the birth of the first baby derived from a donor egg in 1983. Over time, donor oocytes have become an increasingly used option for patients unable to conceive with autologous oocytes. In donor egg, the unique separation of the oocyte source and recipient uterus has created a model that has propelled advances in ART. Progressive ART innovations that have optimized the oocyte donor and resulting embryo include the following: evaluation of ovarian reserve, controlled ovarian hyperstimulation regimens that reduce the risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome, blastocyst culture, oocyte cryo…
Stock Volatility Predictability in Bull and Bear Markets
2020
Recent literature on stock return predictability suggests that it varies substantially across economic states being strongest during bad economic times. In line with this evidence, we document that stock volatility predictability is also state dependent. In particular, using a large data set of high-frequency data on individual stocks and a few popular time-series volatility models, in this paper we comprehensively examine how volatility forecastability varies across bull and bear states of the stock market. We find that the volatility forecast horizon is substantially longer when the market is in a bear state than when it is in a bull state. In addition, the volatility forecast accuracy is…
A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index
2018
[EN] This paper presents a new human happiness index built through five dimensions: development, freedom, solidarity, justice and peace. These five dimensions are evaluated through quantitative variables obtained from the Human Development Reports, World Data Bank and Eurostat. The new happiness index has been built following the guidelines set by the Human Development Reports of the UN for the construction of quality indices, and it has been compared on a set of 13 EU countries with the Overall Life Satisfaction Index, which is used by the UN. Moreover, the new index has been included in a dynamic mathematical model through the demographic rates to study the evolution of the population. Th…
Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa
2015
16 pages; International audience; The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments w…
COVID-19 Infection Process in Italy and Spain: Are the Data Talking?
2020
Background: COVID-19 has spread successfully worldwide in a matter of weeks. After the example of China, all the affected countries are taking hard-confinement measures to control the infection and to gain some time to diminish the big amount of cases that arrive to hospital. Although the measures in China reduced the percentages of new cases, this is not seen in other countries that have taken similar measures, such as Italy and Spain. Now we are in the middle of a battle trying to prevent the healthcare system from collapsing while it effectively responds to the needs of patients who are infected and require hospitalization. Methods: Using China as a mirror of what could happen in our cou…
Buccal drug delivery: what's new and what does the future hold?
2014
The buccal mucosa is the stratified squamous epithelial tissue inside lining of the cheeks. It is a favorable site of drug absorption since the tissue is non-keratinized, relatively immobile and strongly supplied with blood by a dense capillary-vessel network; moreover, it is highly tolerant to allergens, resistant to potentially harmful agents and has a relatively low enzymatic activity. The tissue consents quick onset of effect, offers an easily accessible and generally well-accepted site for drug delivery, is a useful route of administration in patients in an unconscious state (e.g., when swallowing is impaired), and is suitable for retentive dosage forms of administration. Buccal mucosa…
Deducibilidad de los intereses de demora en el Impuesto sobre Sociedades : comentario de la STS de España núm. 150/2021, de 8 de febrero
2021
This study analyzes STS 150/2021, of February 8, which has declared the deductibility of late payment interest in Corporation Tax. To do this, a review is made of the nature of the moratory interest, the forecast of the tax on the calculation of the taxable base in said tax and the framing of these interests within the deductible expense.