Search results for "forecasting"
showing 10 items of 329 documents
Electricity load forecasting for Urban area using weather forecast information
2016
The global demand for energy is increasing daily with the expansion of energy infrastructure and the addition of new appliances. Efficient Energy Management System (EMS) is the need of the day. All residential and commercial buildings can achieve better energy efficiency and consumption with the use of EMS. Load forecasting is one of the methods to enable EMS to work efficiently. The accuracy of load forecast depends on many factors. The load forecast model must consider the weather forecast for the region in developing an accurate forecast. This paper develops Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Bagged Regression Trees to generate and predicted load forecast in Urban area using Meteorologi…
Urban drainage and sustainable cities: how to achieve flood resilient societies?
2012
This paper tries to describe the main developments of urban flood forecasting and modelling. Currently, several new technologies are available for flood monitoring, modelling and mitigation and several paradigms suggest the adoption of greener approaches to urban storm water management. These tools and new approaches can be easily adaptable to new developments where the entire urban drainage system can be suited to follow a more sustainable way to drain storm water. The challenge for the future is instead aimed to apply this new philosophy to existing urban areas where the application of new tools and technologies requires high costs and such approaches have to be prepared by constructing a…
G-CLASS: geosynchronous radar for water cycle science – orbit selection and system design
2019
The mission geosynchronous – continental land atmosphere sensing system (G-CLASS) is designed to study thediurnal water cycle, using geosynchronous radar. Although the water cycle is vital to human society, processes on timescalesless than a day are very poorly observed from space. G-CLASS, using C-band geosynchronous radar, could transform this. Itsscience objectives address intense storms and high resolution weather prediction, and significant diurnal processes such assnow melt and soil moisture change, with societal impacts including agriculture, water resource management, flooding, andlandslides. Secondary objectives relate to ground motion observations for earthquake, volcano, and subs…
Coupled seismogenic geohazards in Alpine regions
2012
COupled seismogenic GEohazards in Alpine Regions (COGEAR) is an interdisciplinary natural hazard project investigating the hazard chain induced by earthquakes. It addresses tectonic processes and the related variability of seismicity in space and time, earthquake forecasting and short-term precursors, and strong ground motion as a result of source and complex path effects. We study non-linear wave propagation phenomena, liquefaction and triggering of landslides in soil and rock, as well as earthquake-induced snow avalanches. The Valais, and in particular parts of the Rhone, Visper, and Matter valleys have been selected as study areas. Tasks include detailed field investigations, development…
Potential of historical meteorological and hydrological data for the reconstruction of historical flood events – the example of the 1882 flood in sou…
2009
Abstract. This paper presents a hydrometeorological reconstruction of the flood triggering meteorological situation and the simulation of discharges of the flood event of December 1882 in the Neckar catchment in Baden-Württemberg (southwest Germany). The course of the 1882 flood event in the Neckar catchment in southwest Germany and the weather conditions which led to this flood were reconstructed by evaluating the information from various historical sources. From these historical data, daily input data sets were derived for run-off modeling. For the determination of the precipitation pattern at the end of December 1882, the sparse historical data were modified by using a similar modern day…
Species distributions models may predict accurately future distributions but poorly how distributions change: A critical perspective on model validat…
2023
Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to make predictions on how species distributions may change as a response to climatic change. To assess the reliability of those predictions, they need to be critically validated with respect to what they are used for. While ecologists are typically interested in how and where distributions will change, we argue that SDMs have seldom been evaluated in terms of their capacity to predict such change. Instead, typical retrospective validation methods estimate model's ability to predict to only one static time in future. Here, we apply two validation methods, one that predicts and evaluates a static pattern, while the other measures change…
Prediction and interpolation of time series by state space models
2015
Artikkeliväitöskirja. Sisältää yhteenveto-osan ja neljä artikkelia. Article dissertation. Contains an introduction part and four articles. A large amount of data collected today is in the form of a time series. In order to make realistic inferences based on time series forecasts, in addition to point predictions, prediction intervals or other measures of uncertainty should be presented. Multiple sources of uncertainty are often ignored due to the complexities involved in accounting them correctly. In this dissertation, some of these problems are reviewed and some new solutions are presented. A state space approach is also advocated for an e cient and exible framework for time series forecas…
Analysis of Relationship between Net Wage and Consumer Price Index
2013
Abstract In the present paper is presented an econometric analysis of the relationship between net salary and consumer price index. After a brief historical overview will be review the calculating statistics for selected variables and coefficients and will be presented the obtained values. We will study the relationship between variables. It will be realized the cloud of points and will be applied Fisher test. The intensity of selected variables will be study too and some forms of relationship between the two chose variables will be done. Student test is applied. It will be performed the parameter estimation for regression functions and Akaike's criterion will be applied. The homoscedastici…
The impact of psychopharmacology on contemporary clinical psychiatry.
2014
Clinical psychiatric evaluations of patients have changed dramatically in recent decades. Both initial assessments and follow-up visits have become brief and superficial, focused on searching for categorical diagnostic criteria from checklists, with limited inquiry into patient-reported symptomatic status and tolerability of treatments. The virtually exclusive therapeutic task has become selecting a plausible psychotropic, usually based on expert consensus guidelines. These guidelines and practice patterns rest mainly on published monotherapy trials that may or may not be applicable to particular patients but are having a profound impact, not only on modern psychiatric practice but also on…
Role of Nitrates for the Therapy of Coronary Artery Disease Patients in the Years beyond 2000
1999
Vasodilator therapy with nitrates has been used for almost a century to bring relief to patients suffering from angina. The acute anti-ischemic effects of nitro-vasodilators for the treatment and prevention of anginal attacks is unquestioned. In addition, nitrates are administered in order to reduce symptomatic and silent ischemic episodes, in patients with proven coronary heart disease who exert ST segment alterations on Holter monitoring. The reduction in total ischemic burden may result in an improved prognosis with regard to infarct prevention and possible prevention of deterioration of left ventricular function due to repetitive episodes of myocardial ischemia. In patients with unstabl…