Search results for "hypothesis testing"

Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

2005

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a pre-factor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both a two-state and a three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model …

Investigation of the orientation of galaxies in clusters: the importance, methods and results of research

2018

Various models of structure formation can account for various aspects of the galaxy formation process on different scales, as well as for various observational features of structures. Thus, the investigation of galaxies orientation constitute a standard test of galaxies formation scenarios since observed variations in angular momentum represent fundamental constraints for any model of galaxy formation. We have improved the method of analysis of the alignment of galaxies in clusters. Now, the method allowed analysis both position angles of galaxy major axes and two angles describing the spatial orientation of galaxies. The distributions of analyzed angles were tested for isotropy by applying…

REMARKS ON THE METHODS OF INVESTIGATIONS OF ALIGNMENT OF GALAXIES

2011

In the 1975 Hawley and Peebles gave the proposal to use three statistical tests for investigations of the galaxies orientation in the large structures. Nowadays, it has been considered as the standard method of searching for galactic alignments. In the present paper we analyzed the tests in details and proposed a few improvements. Basing on the improvements, the new method of analysis of the alignment of galaxies in clusters is proposed. The power of this method is demonstrated on the sample of 247 Abell clusters with at least 100 objects in each. The distributions of the position angles for galaxies in each cluster are analyzed using statistical tests: $\chi^2$, Fourier, autocorrelation an…

Spline Histogram Method for Reconstruction of Probability Density Functions of Clusters of Galaxies

2003

We describe the spline histogram algorithm which is useful for visualization of the probability density function setting up a statistical hypothesis for a test. The spline histogram is constructed from discrete data measurements using tensioned cubic spline interpolation of the cumulative distribution function which is then differentiated and smoothed using the Savitzky-Golay filter. The optimal width of the filter is determined by minimization of the Integrated Square Error function. The current distribution of the TCSplin algorithm written in f77 with IDL and Gnuplot visualization scripts is available from this http URL

Predicting the Significance of Necessity

2019

With Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), a necessity effect is estimated by calculating the amount of empty space in the upper-left corner in a plot with a predictor X and an outcome Y, and recently a method for testing the statistical significance of the necessity effect through permutation has been proposed. In the present simulation study, this method was found to give significant results already with a very weak true population necessity effect, i.e., exhibit high power, unless the sample size is very small. However, in some situations the significance of the necessity effect tends to increase with increased degree of sufficiency, which is paradoxical for a method whose objective is to …

Commentary: Psychological Science's Aversion to the Null

2017

Tests of Independence Based on Sign and Rank Covariances

2003

In this paper three different concepts of bivariate sign and rank, namely marginal sign and rank, spatial sign and rank and affine equivariant sign and rank, are considered. The aim is to see whether these different sign and rank covariances can be used to construct tests for the hypothesis of independence. In some cases (spatial sign, affine equivariant sign and rank) an additional assumption on the symmetry of marginal distribution is needed. Limiting distributions of test statistics under the null hypothesis as well as under interesting sequences of contiguous alternatives are derived. Asymptotic relative efficiencies with respect to the regular correlation test are calculated and compar…

Neoclassical Convergence Versus Technological Catch-Up : A Contribution for Reaching a Consensus.

2004

http://www.businessperspectives.org/files/ppm/PPM_EN_2004_03pp15_42.pdf; International audience; New macro empirical evidence is provided to assess the relative importance of object andidea gaps in explaining the world income distribution dynamics over a benchmark period of 1960-1985. Results are then extended through 1995. Formal statistical hypothesis tests allow us to discriminatebetween two competing growth models: (i) the standard neoclassical growth model similarto that employed by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992), and (ii) an endogenous growth modelclosely related to the Nelson and Phelps' approach (1966) that emphasizes the importance of technologytransfer in addition to factor accumu…

An adaptive multimeme algorithm for designing HIV multidrug therapies.

2007

This paper proposes a period representation for modeling the multidrug HIV therapies and an Adaptive Multimeme Algorithm (AMmA) for designing the optimal therapy. The period representation offers benefits in terms of flexibility and reduction in dimensionality compared to the binary representation. The AMmA is a memetic algorithm which employs a list of three local searchers adaptively activated by an evolutionary framework. These local searchers, having different features according to the exploration logic and the pivot rule, have the role of exploring the decision space from different and complementary perspectives and, thus, assisting the standard evolutionary operators in the optimizati…

Sequentially Forecasting Economic Indices Using Mixture Linear Combinations of EP Distributions

2021

This article displays an application of the statistical method moti- vated by Bruno de Finetti's operational subjective theory of probability. We use exchangeable forecasting distributions based on mixtures of linear com- binations of exponential power (EP) distributions to forecast the sequence of daily rates of return from the Dow-Jones index of stock prices over a 20 year period. The operational subjective statistical method for comparing distributions is quite different from that commonly used in data analysis, because it rejects the basic tenets underlying the practice of hypothesis test- ing. In its place, proper scoring rules for forecast distributions are used to assess the values o…