Search results for "inference"
showing 10 items of 478 documents
Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models
2011
Abstract This paper presents the Bayesian analysis of a general multivariate exponential smoothing model that allows us to forecast time series jointly, subject to correlated random disturbances. The general multivariate model, which can be formulated as a seemingly unrelated regression model, includes the previously studied homogeneous multivariate Holt-Winters’ model as a special case when all of the univariate series share a common structure. MCMC simulation techniques are required in order to approach the non-analytically tractable posterior distribution of the model parameters. The predictive distribution is then estimated using Monte Carlo integration. A Bayesian model selection crite…
How challenging RADseq data turned out to favor coalescent-based species tree inference. A case study in Aichryson (Crassulaceae)
2022
Analysing multiple genomic regions while incorporating detection and qualification of discordance among regions has become standard for understanding phylogenetic relationships. In plants, which usually have comparatively large genomes, this is feasible by the combination of reduced-representation library (RRL) methods and high-throughput sequencing enabling the cost effective acquisition of genomic data for thousands of loci from hundreds of samples. One popular RRL method is RADseq. A major disadvantage of established RADseq approaches is the rather short fragment and sequencing range, leading to loci of little individual phylogenetic information. This issue hampers the application of coa…
A sizing approach for stand-alone hybrid photovoltaic-wind-battery systems: A Sicilian case study
2018
Abstract Solar and wind energy are the two most available renewable energy resources in the world. In this paper, a high-resolution analysis that allows sizing a hybrid photovoltaic-wind turbine-battery banks has been carried out. The analysis aims to minimize the annualized cost of the systems satisfying two reliability constraints. The solution has been obtained numerically by means of an iterative technique. The decision variables are the photovoltaic area, wind turbine radius, and battery capacity. A high-resolution model, based on fuzzy logic inference system, has been developed to evaluate the number of active occupants and the domestic electricity consumption. In order to allow a mor…
Rejection odds and rejection ratios: A proposal for statistical practice in testing hypotheses
2016
Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations -- even the full Baye…
Bayesian Modelling of Confusability of Phoneme-Grapheme Connections
2007
Deficiencies in the ability to map letters to sounds are currently considered to be the most likely early signs of dyslexia. This has motivated the use of Literate, a computer game for training this skill, in several Finnish schools and households as a tool in the early prevention of reading disability. In this paper, we present a Bayesian model that uses a student's performance in a game like Literate to infer which phoneme-grapheme connections student currently confuses with each other. This information can be used to adapt the game to a particular student's skills as well as to provide information about the student's learning progress to their parents and teachers. We apply our model to …
''Forward to the past''
2012
Carlini, Alessandro | Actis-Grosso, Rossana | Stucchi, Natale | Pozzo, Thierry; International audience; ''Our daily experience shows that the CNS is a highly efficient machine to predict the effect of actions into the future; are we so efficient also in reconstructing the past of an action? Previous studies demonstrated we are more effective in extrapolating the final position of a stimulus moving according to biological kinematic laws. Here we address the complementary question: are we more effective in extrapolating the starting position (SP) of a motion following a biological velocity profile? We presented a dot moving upward and corresponding to vertical arm movements that were masked i…
Pleistocene allopatric differentiation followed by recent range expansion explains the distribution and molecular diversity of two congeneric crustac…
2021
AbstractPleistocene glaciations had a tremendous impact on the biota across the Palaearctic, resulting in strong phylogeographic signals of range contraction and rapid postglacial recolonization of the deglaciated areas. Here, we explore the diversity patterns and history of two sibling species of passively dispersing taxa typical of temporary ponds, fairy shrimps (Anostraca). We combine mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (ITS2 and 18S) markers to conduct a range-wide phylogeographic study including 56 populations of Branchinecta ferox and Branchinecta orientalis in the Palaearctic. Specifically, we investigate whether their largely overlapping ranges in Europe resulted from allopatric differe…
Effects of Grade Retention Policies: A Literature Review of Empirical Studies Applying Causal Inference
2021
The identification of the causal effects of grade retention policies is of enormous relevance for researchers and policymakers alike. Taking advantage of the availability of more detailed longitudinal datasets, researchers have been able to apply different identification strategies that address the classical problems of selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity that have plagued previous studies on the effect of retention. We present a systematic literature review of empirical studies aiming to unveil the causal effects of retention. This study underlines the need to consider and evaluate different kinds of grade retention polices as their effects vary depending on several dimensions (suc…
Los procesos inferenciales en lectores con síndrome de Down
2013
The aim of this work is to know if the source of the difficulty in making inferences, readers with Down syndrome, is in access to prior knowledge or constructing ideas from purely textual knowledge (based on Saldaña and Frith, 2002 for autism). Involved a sample of 20 students with Down syndrome and mild mental retardation (mean IQ = 60) and a control group of 20 children without cognitive deficits. They were matched as to their extent read metal age via Prueba de Evaluación del Retraso Lector (average 8 years). We created two experimental situations: a) subjects had to generate inferences based on physical knowledge, b) social inferences about knowledge. The ability to check and reaction t…
Bayesian Markov switching models for the early detection of influenza epidemics
2008
The early detection of outbreaks of diseases is one of the most challenging objectives of epidemiological surveillance systems. In this paper, a Markov switching model is introduced to determine the epidemic and non-epidemic periods from influenza surveillance data: the process of differenced incidence rates is modelled either with a first-order autoregressive process or with a Gaussian white-noise process depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or in a non-epidemic phase. The transition between phases of the disease is modelled as a Markovian process. Bayesian inference is carried out on the former model to detect influenza epidemics at the very moment of their onset. Moreover, t…