Search results for "interval"
showing 10 items of 1703 documents
Holt–Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data
2007
Abstract This paper provides a formulation for the additive Holt–Winters forecasting procedure that simplifies both obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of all unknowns, smoothing parameters and initial conditions, and the computation of point forecasts and reliable predictive intervals. The stochastic component of the model is introduced by means of additive, uncorrelated, homoscedastic and Normal errors, and then the joint distribution of the data vector, a multivariate Normal distribution, is obtained. In the case where a data transformation was used to improve the fit of the model, cumulative forecasts are obtained here using a Monte-Carlo approximation. This paper describes the metho…
Intrinsic credible regions: An objective Bayesian approach to interval estimation
2005
This paper definesintrinsic credible regions, a method to produce objective Bayesian credible regions which only depends on the assumed model and the available data.Lowest posterior loss (LPL) regions are defined as Bayesian credible regions which contain values of minimum posterior expected loss: they depend both on the loss function and on the prior specification. An invariant, information-theory based loss function, theintrinsic discrepancy is argued to be appropriate for scientific communication. Intrinsic credible regions are the lowest posterior loss regions with respect to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the appropriate reference prior. The proposed procedure is completely general…
A geostatistical approach for dynamic life tables: The effect of mortality on remaining lifetime and annuities
2010
Dynamic life tables arise as an alternative to the standard (static) life table, with the aim of incorporating the evolution of mortality over time. The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for projected mortality rates in the US is one of the most outstanding and has been used a great deal since then. Different versions of the model have been developed but all of them, together with other parametric models, consider the observed mortality rates as independent observations. This is a difficult hypothesis to justify when looking at the graph of the residuals obtained with any of these methods. Methods of adjustment and prediction based on geostatistical techniques which expl…
Testing equality of reliability and stability with simple linear constraints in multi-wave, multi-variable models
1998
Data from a longitudinal study on school achievement were used to develop new methods for analysing reliability of measurements and stability of behaviour over a long time interval. The proposed method of analysis makes it possible to test hypotheses about equality constraints on reliability and stability. It is known that the use of negative variances for imaginary latent variables with equality constraints between structural parameters produces standardized variances for endogenous latent variables and quality constraints for coefficients of stability. Reparameterization of random errors in measurement models allows equality constraints to be set for coefficients of cross-sectional and of…
Comprehensive estimation of input signals and dynamics in biochemical reaction networks
2012
Abstract Motivation: Cellular information processing can be described mathematically using differential equations. Often, external stimulation of cells by compounds such as drugs or hormones leading to activation has to be considered. Mathematically, the stimulus is represented by a time-dependent input function. Parameters such as rate constants of the molecular interactions are often unknown and need to be estimated from experimental data, e.g. by maximum likelihood estimation. For this purpose, the input function has to be defined for all times of the integration interval. This is usually achieved by approximating the input by interpolation or smoothing of the measured data. This procedu…
Thermalization of Random Motion in Weakly Confining Potentials
2010
We show that in weakly confining conservative force fields, a subclass of diffusion-type (Smoluchowski) processes, admits a family of "heavy-tailed" non-Gaussian equilibrium probability density functions (pdfs), with none or a finite number of moments. These pdfs, in the standard Gibbs-Boltzmann form, can be also inferred directly from an extremum principle, set for Shannon entropy under a constraint that the mean value of the force potential has been a priori prescribed. That enforces the corresponding Lagrange multiplier to play the role of inverse temperature. Weak confining properties of the potentials are manifested in a thermodynamical peculiarity that thermal equilibria can be approa…
Duality and spatial inhomogeneity
2001
Within the framework on non-extensive thermostatistics we revisit the recently advanced q-duality concept. We focus our attention here on a modified q-entropic measure of the spatial inhomogeneity for binary patterns. At a fixed length-scale this measure exhibits a generalised duality that links appropriate pairs of q and q' values. The simplest q q' invariant function, without any free parameters, is deduced here. Within an adequate interval q < qo < q', in which the function reaches its maximum value at qo, this invariant function accurately approximates the investigated q-measure, nitidly evidencing the duality phenomenon. In the close vicinity of qo, the approximate meaningful rel…
Test and power considerations for multiple endpoint analyses using sequentially rejective graphical procedures
2009
A variety of powerful test procedures are available for the analysis of clinical trials addressing multiple objectives, such as comparing several treatments with a control, assessing the benefit of a new drug for more than one endpoint, etc. However, some of these procedures have reached a level of complexity that makes it difficult to communicate the underlying test strategies to clinical teams. Graphical approaches have been proposed instead that facilitate the derivation and communication of Bonferroni-based closed test procedures. In this paper we give a coherent description of the methodology and illustrate it with a real clinical trial example. We further discuss suitable power measur…
A Bayesian SIRS model for the analysis of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia, Spain
2014
We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model in discrete time to understand respiratory syncytial virus dynamics in the region of Valencia, Spain. A SIRS model based on ordinary differential equations has also been proposed to describe RSV dynamics in the region of Valencia. However, this continuous-time deterministic model is not suitable when the initial number of infected individuals is small. Stochastic epidemic models based on a probability of disease transmission provide a more natural description of the spread of infectious diseases. In addition, by allowing the transmission rate to vary stochastically over time, the proposed model provides…
Resuming Shapes with Applications
2004
Many image processing tasks need some kind of average of different shapes. Frequently, different shapes obtained from several images have to be summarized. If these shapes can be considered as different realizations of a given random compact set, then the natural summaries are the different mean sets proposed in the literature. In this paper, new mean sets are defined by using the basic transformations of Mathematical Morphology (dilation, erosion, opening and closing). These new definitions can be considered, under some additional assumptions, as particular cases of the distance average of Baddeley and Molchanov. The use of the former and new mean sets as summary descriptors of shapes is i…