Search results for "jel:C22"
showing 9 items of 9 documents
A Skewed GARCH-in-Mean Model: An Application to U.S. Stock Returns
2004
In this paper we consider a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model based on the so-called z distribution. This distribution is capable of modeling moderate skewness and kurtosis typically encountered in financial return series, and the need to allow for skewness can be readily tested. We apply the new GARCH-M model to study the relationship between risk and return in monthly postwar U.S. stock market data. Our results indicate the presence of conditional skewness in U.S. stock returns, and, in contrast to the previous literature, we show that a positive and significant relationship between return and risk can be uncovered, once an appropriate probability distribution is employed to allow for conditi…
Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads.
2010
Abstract In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads for real-time and revised data regarding employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest that the best results come from using only a few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. In particular, for employment and at short-run horizons, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks. Moreover, forecast results based on revised data …
No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35
2013
This paper analyzes the behavior of Ibex35 from January 1999 to December 2001, in order to check if it follows a different process from random walk so its return is not a white noise and it can be predictable, against the efficient market hypothesis. For that, a nonlinear generating process of return will be considered and a STAR-APARCH model will be specified. This model allows a nonlinear behavior in the conditional mean and in the conditional variance. The empirical results show that the Ibex35 follows a nonlinear and asymmetric process, both in the conditional mean as in the conditional variance, so the weak-version of efficient market hypothesis is rejected. El trabajo analiza el compo…
Technological differences and convergence in the OECD
2000
Abstract. In this paper we test the homogeneity of the technological parameters among OECD countries, which is the maintained hypothesis in most of the empirical growth literature. We first identify differences in the constant term of the convergence equation estimated for the OECD 1960/1990 sample using a fixed- effects estimator. Then we provide a formal test of the homogeneity of technological parameters across groups of countries. We identify at least two different groups within the OECD, with significantly different technologies. Convergence within each group is fast, supporting the notion of club convergence. Nevertheless, the implausible parameter values obtained for the leading tech…
Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions
2015
In this article we present evidence of the long-run effect of trade openness on income per worker for two regions that have followed different liberalization strategies, namely Asia and Latin America. A model that re-examines these questions is estimated for two panels of Asian and Latin American countries over the 1980-2008 period using a novel empirical approach that accounts for endogeneity as well as for the time series properties of the variables involved. From an econometric point of view, we apply recent panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for two additional elements usually neglected in previous empirical literature: cross-dependence and structural bre…
Price convergence of peripheral European countries on the way to the EMU: A time series approach
2000
This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.
Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks†
2006
This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1956–2001. The tests exploit the cross-sectional variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and support the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analysed.
An Examination of Tourist Arrivals Dynamics Using Short-Term Time Series Data: A Space—Time Cluster Approach
2013
The purpose of this study is to examine the development of Italian tourist areas ( circoscrizioni turistiche) through a cluster analysis of short time series. The technique is an adaptation of the functional data analysis approach developed by Abraham et al (2003), which combines spline interpolation with k-means clustering. The findings indicate the presence of two patterns (increasing and stable) averagely characterizing groups of territories. Moreover, tests of spatial contiguity suggest the presence of ‘space–time clusters’; that is, areas in the same ‘time cluster’ are also spatially contiguous. These findings appear to be more robust in particular for those series characterized by an…
STATE AID POLICY BETWEEN COMPETITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE IMPACT OF STATE AID TO R&D ON GDP IN THE EU MEMBER STATES
2012
The paper focuses on the analysis of the relationship between state aid to R&D and economic growth, measured by GDP level, providing empirical evidence of a correlation between these variables. Using a methodology which combines the regression technique and Granger causality, we found that GDP represents a significant causal determinant of state aid, while the correlation the variables considered is positive and statistically significant, suggesting that, in spite of disparities between Member States, government support through state aid to R&D has evolved from maintaining undistorted competition to the possibility to act as an incentive for the economic growth in the EU.