Search results for "jel:C3"
showing 10 items of 34 documents
Euro Area Structural Convergence? A Multi-Criterion Cluster Analysis
2015
Abstract This paper proposes a classification of the old member countries of the euro area in a structural data rich environment and run a convergence analysis using the same framework. First, we use a clustering approach and identify two structurally distinct clusters of countries that are not modified between 1999 and 2012: the South Countries Group (SCG) – composed of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – and the Other Countries Group (OCG). Second, we propose a convergence metrics and reach three key findings: (i) increase over time of the between-clusters׳ dispersion; (ii) diverging demographics and innovation performance into the OCG, and (iii) an unfortunate convergence towards high la…
New Evidence of the Real Interest Rate Parity for OECD Countries Using Panel Unit Root Tests with Breaks
2006
This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.
Model Based Monte Carlo Pricing of Energy and Temperature Quanto Options
2010
Weather derivatives have become very popular tools in weather risk management in recent years. One of the elements supporting their diffusion has been the increase in volatility observed on many energy markets. Among the several available contracts, Quanto options are now becoming very popular for a simple reason: they take into account the strong correlation between energy consumption and certain weather conditions, so enabling price and weather risk to be controlled at the same time. These products are more efficient and, in many cases, significantly cheaper than simpler plain vanilla options. Unfortunately, the specific features of energy and weather time series do not enable the use of …
Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis
2009
Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.
Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity
2005
Abstract This paper examines whether a monetary policy tightening (i.e., an increase in the domestic interest rate) was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculative pressures during the Asian financial crisis. We estimate a bivariate VECM for four Asian countries, and improve upon existing studies in two important ways. First, by using a long data span we are able to compare the effects of an interest rate rise on the nominal exchange rate during tranquil and turbulent periods. Second, we take into account the endogeneity of interest rates and identify the system by exploiting the heteroscedasticity properties of the relevant time series, following Rigobon [Identification thro…
A Stochastic Variance Factor Model for Large Datasets and an Application to S&P Data
2008
The aim of this paper is to consider multivariate stochastic volatility models for large dimensional datasets. We suggest the use of the principal component methodology of Stock and Watson [Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 2002. Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indices. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 147–162] for the stochastic volatility factor model discussed by Harvey, Ruiz, and Shephard [Harvey, A.C., Ruiz, E., Shephard, N., 1994. Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models. Review of Economic Studies, 61, 247–264]. We provide theoretical and Monte Carlo results on this method and apply it to S&P data.
Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation
2004
According to several empirical studies, US inflation and nominal interest rates, as well as the real interest rate, can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is not consistent with the theoretical models. In this paper we introduce a nonlinear bivariate mixture autoregressive model that seems to fit quarterly US data (1952 Q1 – 2000 Q2) reasonably well. It is found that the three-month treasury bill rate and inflation share a common nonlinear component that explains a large part of their persistence. The real interest rate is devoid of this component, indicating one-for-one m…
Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks
2009
The objective of this study is to analyze volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the effects of the September 11, March 11 and July 7 financial crises. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the crises themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the crisis effect. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impact that terrorist attacks had on both markets. El objetivo d…
The expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the Euro area
2008
This paper tries to ascertain whether the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates was fulfilled for the EMU countries in the period previous to its launching. To this end, we employ individual country data for the Euro area. Using pooled and panel cointegration techniques we conclude that there is an equilibrium relationship linking the long and the short-run interest rates for both the individual countries and the panel as a whole. Due to the homogeneity found in the short-long term interest rates relationship across countries, the fears raised about the use of area-wide aggregates by the ECB if not discarded need to be, at least, qualified
Pecking Order Versus Trade-off: An Empirical Approach to the Small and Medium Enterprise Capital Structure
2003
In this paper, we explore two of the most relevant theories that explain financial policy in small and medium enterprises (SMEs): pecking order theory and trade-off theory. Panel data methodology is used to test the empirical hypotheses over a sample of 6482 Spanish SMEs during the five-year period 1994?1998. The results suggest that both theoretical approaches contribute to explain capital structure in SMEs. However, while we find evidence that SMEs attempt to achieve a target or optimum leverage (trade-off model), there is less support for the view that SMEs adjust their leverage level to their financing requirements (pecking order model). En este trabajo, exploramos dos de las teorías má…