6533b86dfe1ef96bd12c9c6a

RESEARCH PRODUCT

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the Euro area

subject

description

This paper tries to ascertain whether the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates was fulfilled for the EMU countries in the period previous to its launching. To this end, we employ individual country data for the Euro area. Using pooled and panel cointegration techniques we conclude that there is an equilibrium relationship linking the long and the short-run interest rates for both the individual countries and the panel as a whole. Due to the homogeneity found in the short-long term interest rates relationship across countries, the fears raised about the use of area-wide aggregates by the ECB if not discarded need to be, at least, qualified