Search results for "jel:F3"

Integration of Capital Markets from Central and Eastern Europe: Implications for EU Investors

2014

Our paper investigates the extent of capital market co-movements between three emerging markets– Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – and three developed markets from the European Union - Austria, France and Germany. We test whether an increase in correlations between the six markets took place in recent years, as revealing higher integration of capital markets in the region. We find a statistically significant positive trend in cross-market correlations between 1999 and 2008, before the emergence of the global financial crisis. Movements in national stock markets are not fully synchronized, but increases in market volatilities lead to increases in cross-country correlations. There is a lon…

Assessing Non-Linear Structures in Real Exchange Rates Using Recurrence Plot Strategies

2002

Export market integration in the European Union

2004

This paper examines the degree and recent evolution (1988-2001) of export-price dispersion among European Union countries. It also explores the effect of exchange rates on exportprice dispersion by reviewing the experience of some European countries that participated in the exchange rate stability zone. The results indicate that export-price dispersion across European Union countries was usually lower than across OECD countries. Moreover, although there is little evidence of convergence, this is stronger across European Union countries. Finally, even though price dispersion was often lower across European Union countries where exchange rates have been relatively stable than across countries…

Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis

2009

Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.

The Global Side of the Investments-Savings Puzzle

2008

In this paper we re-examine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national savings and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of savings and investment. We also find that the global components in savings and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.

Exchange Rate Arrangements in Central and Eastern European Countries – Evolutions and Characteristics

2007

The process of choosing the exchange rate regime for the new EU member states has been influenced by other criteria than the traditional ones, which belong to macroeconomic criteria. This paper make a comparative analyze of the exchange rate arrangements in Central and Eastern European after 1990. These arrangements are dynamic on the one hand due to their permanent diversification and on the other hand because the values established this way are rapidly changing. In essence, they differ according to the degree of flexibility adopted when the exchange rate is established: from more rigid forms – currency board or pegging the currency to a foreign currency – to free floating.

The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered

2017

Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample period. Although the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model is not consistent with these results, we suggest an explanation of the results in terms of contemporary variants of the model that incorporate the terms of trade mechanism. Specifically we argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We undertake simulations of the modern versions of the Balassa-Samuelson model to show that…

El tipo de cambio real dólar-euro y el diferencial de intereses reales

2006

This paper investigates whether threshold effects exist in the relationship between dollar-euro real exchange rate and real interest differential, over the period January 1984 to December 2004. We specify a three-regime threshold model and the results provide evidence that there is no threshold effect in the short term, but the nonlinear behaviour of real exchange rate implies threshold effect in the long term. On the other hand, the nonlinearity into the behaviour of real exchange rates can be modelled by a Band-TAR which implies a symmetric response to the real interest differential outside the bank. Finally, into the threshold band the behaviour of real exchange rate is near to follow a …

Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation

2015

We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding sh…

Competitiveness, Economic Freedom and Real Exchange Rate. Evidence from Romania

2006

In the new context of European Integration, Romania has to improve some important macroeconomic indicators, such as: competitiveness, economic freedom and real exchange rate for a sustainable economic growth. Many authors emphasize that competitiveness and economic freedom affects economic growth through stimulating investment and business environment. The equilibrium exchange rate is crucial as it directly influences external competitiveness, especially through export prices. For Romania, the competitiveness can be improved through the economic freedom growth and the real exchange rate appreciation. But this appreciation must be accompanied by a rise in productivity and in the quality of t…