The euro impact on trade. Long run evidence with structural breaks

In this paper we present new evidence on the euro effect on trade. We use a data set containing all bilateral combinations in a panel of 26 OECD countries during the period 1967-2008. From a methodological point of view, we implement a new generation of tests that allow solving some of the problems derived from the non-stationary nature of the data. To this aim we apply panel tests that account for the presence of cross-section dependence as well as discontinuities in the non-stationary panel data. We test for cointegration between the variables using panel cointegration tests, especially the ones proposed by Banerjee and Carrióni- Silvestre (2010). We also efficiently estimate the long-run…

Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries

Abstract The paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries. We apply a sequential procedure based in two multivariate augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF)-type panel unit root tests in a SURE framework. We strongly reject the joint null of hysteresis and find that only seven countries present evidence of hysteresis.

Growth in a time of external imbalances

Abstract Globalization and financial integration have increased in the last three decades giving rise to cumulated large external imbalances. The question we address in this paper is whether economic growth can be affected by these external imbalances. We estimate an augmented growth equation with the external stock position of the countries measured by the net foreign asset position. Unlike previous literature, we use non-parametric methods that capture non-linearities and heterogeneity, and apply them to a sample that includes 106 developed and developing countries for the period 1983-2011. Contrary to the neoclassical theory, we find that improvements in the external position foster grow…

Monetary union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries

Abstract This paper investigates cross-country productivity convergence among Mercosur members plus associates (Chile and Bolivia) and Peru, during the period 1960–1999. The testing strategy is based on the definitions of time series convergence by Bernard and Durlauf (1995) [Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Interpreting tests of convergence hypothesis. Journal of Econometrics , 71 , 161–173] and applies sequentially the multivariate unit root tests proposed by Sarno and Taylor (1998) [Sarno, L., & Taylor, M. (1998). Real exchange rates under the recent float: Unequivocal evidence of mean reversion. Economics Letters , 60 , 131–137], Flores et al. (1995) [Flores, R., Preumont, P.Y.,…

Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for Spain? Fresh evidence from old data

Abstract The information content of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is subject to change over time and all the empirical modeling work that does not take into account the possible variations and instabilities may fail to explain the variations in the per-capita CO2 and per-capita income relationship. In this paper we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a better empirical description of the Spanish EKC during the period 1857–2007. Our methodology is based on instability tests recently proposed in Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) as well as on cointegration tests developed in Arai and Kurozumi (2007) and Kej…

Instituciones y determinación de los salarios en la zona del euro. Evaluación con técnicas de cointegración de panel

Se estima aqui la ecuacion del salario de equilibrio para la zona del euro en 1995-2011 con tecnicas de cointegracion de panel que permiten dependencia transversal y rupturas estructurales. Como se esperaba, los salarios presentan una relacion positiva con la productividad y negativa con el desempleo. Las variables institucionales incluidas muestran correlacion entre flexibilidad y moderacion salarial. Ademas, desde 2004, la mayor competencia internacional reforzo la relacion entre salarios y productividad, y la apreciacion del tipo de cambio provoco una caida salarial. Los resultados indican tambien que la intervencion gubernamental y la concertacion social tienden a moderar los salarios.

Sovereign debt spreads in EMU: The time-varying role of fundamentals and market distrust

Abstract This paper provides further analysis on the determinants of sovereign debt spreads for peripheral Eurozone countries since the start of EMU, paying special attention to episodes that characterized the global financial crisis aftermath starting in 2007. More specifically, the purpose of our research is to disentangle the role of fundamental variables and market perception about variations on risk in order to explain the evolution of sovereign spreads in EMU during the recent crisis. Our results, in line with previous literature, show the importance of three groups of observable variables, namely, changes in risk-aversion of creditors, fiscal indebtedness and liquidity variables. In …

50 years of capital mobility in the eurozone: breaking the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle

AbstractThis paper assesses capital mobility for the Eurozone countries by studying the long-run relationship between domestic investment and savings for the period 1970-2019. Our main goal is to analyze the impact of economic events on capital mobility during this period. We apply the cointegration methodology in a setting that allows us to identify endogenous breaks in the long-run saving-investment relationship. Precisely, the breaks coincide with relevant economic events. We find a downward trend in the saving-investment retention since the 70s for the so-called “core countries”, whereas this trend is not so evident in the peripheral, where the financial and sovereign crises have had a …

Testing for external sustainability under a monetary integration process. Does the Lawson doctrine apply to Europe?

Monetary integration, and more specifically, the creation of a monetary union in Europe, raises new economic questions concerning its functioning and governance. In particular, we focus on the implications of high and persistent current account deficits for the economic performance of monetary union members in the medium term. Recent literature has argued that conventional measures of external sustainability are misleading because they omit the effects of capital variations on net foreign asset positions due to, among others, stock or debt market crises. In this paper we revisit external sustainability making use of the database developed by Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007) that includes the…

Wage leadership models: A country-by-country analysis of the EMU

Abstract According to the theory of wage leadership, if there is free inter-sectoral labor mobility, changes in the level of the wage in the leading sector cause changes in the same direction in other sectors' wage. Moreover, since the traded sector (i.e. Industry) is affected by international competitive pressure, it should act as the leader, because this would be conducive to wage restraint. We apply a Vector Error Correction Model on four macro sectors (Industry, Services, Construction and the Public Sector) in ten EMU countries to test for wage leadership and wage adaptability. Our results show significant cross-country differences, with the Public Sector acting as the leader in Germany…

The role of Institutions in explaining wage determination in the Euro Area: a panel cointegration approach

Over the last 15 years, the evolution of labor costs has been very diverse across EMU countries. Since wages have important second-round effects on prices and competitiveness, and EMU countries do not have the tool of the nominal exchange rate to correct for such imbalances, understanding the determinants of the wage is a matter of increasing concern and debate. We estimate the equilibrium wage equation for the Euro Area over the period 1995-2011 using panel cointegration techniques that allow for cross-section dependence and structural breaks. The results show that the equilibrium wage has a positive relation with productivity and negative relation with unemployment, as expected. We also i…

Instability tests in cointegration relationships. An application to the term structure of interest rates

Abstract This paper tries to review, from a practitioner's point of view, the recent strand of literature on cointegration tests allowing for structural changes or parameter instability. Thus, we apply several tests using as an example the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. The results are consistent with the existence of cointegration between the long and the short run Spanish interest rates, with a vector (1,−1), as predicted by the theory. However, there is also evidence of structural instability, mainly at the beginning of 1994, that can be attributed to the financial changes that occurred in Spain as a result of its external commitments in the process of the Eu…

Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging

En este artículo analizamos los determinantes del stock de FDI saliente de Japón para el período 1996–2017. Este período es especialmente relevante ya que abarca un proceso de creciente globalización económica y dos crisis financieras. Para ello, consideramos un amplio conjunto de variables candidatas basadas en la teoría, así como en análisis empíricos previos. Nuestra muestra incluye un total de 27 países anfitriones. Seleccionamos las covariables utilizando una metodología basada en datos, el análisis Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Además, también analizamos si estos determinantes cambian según el grado de desarrollo (emergentes vs desarrollados) o las áreas geográficas (UE vs Asia Orie…

Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between CO2 and income: The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain, 1857–2007

abstract Article history:Received 9 March 2011Received in revised form 24 February 2012Accepted 2 March 2012Available online 14 March 2012JEL classification:C2Q4Keywords:Environmental Kuznets CurveCO 2 emissionsNonlinear relationshipThreshold cointegration Inthispaper wemodelthe long-run relationship between per capita CO 2 and per capita income for the Spanisheconomy over the period 1857–2007. According to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (ECK) the relationshipbetween the two variables has an inverted-U shape. However, previous studies for the Spanish economy onlyconsidered the existence of linear relationships. Such an approach may lack flexibility to detect the trueshape of the relationship…

Price convergence of peripheral European countries on the way to the EMU: A time series approach

This paper examines price and inflation convergence between three European countries (Italy, Spain and the U.K.) and a European average and, alternatively, between them and Germany from the beginning of the 80's.

Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks

The authors test hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis in unemployment using panel data for transition countries covering the period 1991:1–2003:11.The advantages of the stationarity tests applied is that they exploit the cross-section variations of the series and, additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. They do not impose independence on the panel members, so that the critical values are simulated based on their specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and give support to the shifting natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for all the countries…

Short-term modified Phillips curves for the accession countries

This study uses NAIRU short-term measures obtained using univariate methods as a basis to analyse inflation developments in the eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union in 2004 during the transition process. The results point to the role of short-term NAIRU as an attractor and support a shifting natural rate hypothesis for unemployment in these countries.

Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?

Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the sustainability of public finances in the Eurozone particularly after the 2007 financial crisis. This paper goes beyond the standard analysis of the univariate properties of the fiscal variables through the estimation of a time-varying fiscal reaction function on a 11-country panel for a period spanning from 1970 to 2014. Even if panel unit root or stationary tests may provide a rough first insight on the sustainability of the public finances, they fail to highlight the adjustment mechanisms to debt overhang in recent years. The main advantage of our empirical approach is that it clearly captures the government’s dynamic response to debt accumul…

Are the determinants of CO2 emissions converging among OECD countries?

This paper studies convergence in CO2emission intensity (CO2 emissions over GDP) among OECD countries over the period 1960-2008 based on its determinants, namely, energy intensity (energy consumption over GDP) and the so-called carbonisation index (CO2 emissions over energy consumption). We apply the Phillips and Sul (2007) methodology, which tests for the existence of convergence clubs. Our results highlight that differences in emission intensity convergence are more determined by differences in convergence of the carbonisation index rather than by differences in the dynamic convergence of energy intensity.

External imbalances from a GVAR perspective

In this paper we study the drivers governing external disequilibria through a Global VAR (GVAR) analysis applied to a group of 24 countries during the period 1972-2017. The GVAR methodology is particularly well suited for our research question. First, it permits to measure the effects of both, domestic and foreign country-specific shocks. Second, it allows to analyze not only the long-run relationships, but also the dynamics through generalized impulse-response functions. Third, it enables to test many hypotheses from a macroeconomic perspective and the existence of spillovers. Our results show evidence of international financial integration in terms of the fulfillment of the real interest …

Effects of external imbalances on GDP recovery patterns

Abstract A decade after the beginning of the Great Recession, flow external imbalances, measured by the current account (CA) have narrowed markedly. However, stock or net foreign assets (NFA) imbalances have kept increasing and have created challenges for future macroeconomic and financial stability. To date, early warning systems (scoreboards) have focused more on flow than on stock variables. To approach this problem, in this paper we analyze expansions using two complementary sets of indicators proposed by Harding and Pagan (2002) and Gadea et al. (2017) for the period 1950–2016. After controlling for a large set of explanatory variables, we find that the effect of CA imbalances is limit…

A rationale for macroeconomic policy coordination: Evidence based on the Spanish peseta

Abstract In the present paper two types of monetary model for the determination of the peseta/DM exchange rate have been specified for the period 1980–1989. One includes the fundamental variables corresponding to the two countries concerned (Germany and Spain) and the other is an aggregate model, where the explanatory variables are the ratios between the fundamentals from the countries inside the ERM of the EMS, and the Spanish fundamentals. The empirical results show that the aggregate model has greater explanatory power, supporting (indirectly) further monetary policy coordination.

Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach

Abstract In this paper we test for hysteresis effects versus the natural rate hypothesis on unemployment rates of new members in the European Union (EU) using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. In addition, we estimate the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) from a univariate perspective. The precision of these NAIRU are investigated by studying two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the estimation of the break points, and the estimation of the autoregressive parameters. The results indicate up to four structural breaks in the NAIRU of transition countries that can be associated with institutional changes from implementing market-oriented …

The relationship between debt level and fiscal sustainability in organization for economic cooperation and development countries

In this article we unify the traditional approaches to testing for fiscal sustainability considering the stock-flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach encompasses previous ways of testing for sustainability. The results obtained for a group of 17 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries point to weak fiscal sustainability, as well as to the existence of cointegration between deficit and debt, confirming the relevance of the stock-flow approach. Allowing for structural breaks and multicointegration turns out to be of critical importance to assess whether the fiscal authorities apply their policies looking for sustainability and whether, simulta…

Explaining German outward FDI in the EU: a reassessment using Bayesian model averaging and GLM estimators

The last decades have seen an increasing interest in FDI and the process of production fragmentation. This has been particularly important for Germany as the core of the European Union (EU) production hub. This paper attempts to provide a deeper under standing of the drivers of German outward FDI in the EU for the period 1996–2012 by tackling the two main challenges faced in the modelization of FDI, namely the variable selection problem and the choice of the estimation method. For that purpose, we first extend previous BMA analysis developed by Camarero et al. (Econ Model 83:326–345, 2019) by including country-pair-fixed effects to select the appropriate set of variables. Second, we compare…

EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations

In this paper, we present evidence of the long-run effect of the euro on trade for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967–2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of trade flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU members vis-a-vis the other eleven partners. We apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross-dependence and structural breaks. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra-European trade, by isolating the individual countries, we assess which of th…

The euro impact on trade: long run evidence with structural breaks

In this paper we present new evidence on the euro effect on trade. We use a data set containing all bilateral combinations in a panel of 26 OECD countries during the period 1967-2008. From a methodological point of view, we implement a new generation of tests that allow solving some of the problems derived from the non-stationary nature of the data. To this aim we apply panel tests that account for the presence of cross-section dependence as well as discontinuities in the non-stationary panel data. We test for cointegration between the variables using panel cointegration tests, especially the ones proposed by Banerjee and Carrióni- Silvestre (2010). We also efficiently estimate the long-run…

Is the ‘euro effect’ on trade so small after all? New evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques

In this paper we present new evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on trade using data for 26 OECD countries for the period 1967–2008. We strive to fill the gaps present in the previous literature through a second-generation panel cointegration tests and estimators that account for both cross-section dependence in the data and discontinuities in the deterministic and the cointegrating vector in the time dimension. This approach allows us to put the adoption of the euro by EMU members in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU is best interpreted as a progression of policy changes. Once we control for all of them the euro effect decreases considerably but is stil…

A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate

Abstract In this paper we estimate different specifications of a model for the determination of the bilateral real exchange rate of the peseta relative to nine European Union members. The model is based on Meese and Rogoff (The Journal of Finance 43 (1988) 933) monetary approach as extended by MacDonald (Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 8 (1998) 117). The applied econometric techniques are the recent panel cointegration tests developed by Kao (Journal of Econometrics 90 (1999) 1), McCoskey and Kao (A Monte Carlo comparison of tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Propagations in Probability and Statistics 1 (2001) 165) and Pedroni (Oxford Bullet…

The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: Is it Fundamental?

In this paper we have applied two approaches to the study of the dollar real exchange rate in relation with the Euro-area currencies. First, using dynamic panel techniques, we estimate an error correction model for the dollar real exchange rate versus seven developed countries, four of them Euro-area members. Second, we aggregate the European variables and estimate a model for the Euro-dollar real exchange rate using time series techniques. After identification and model selection, the same specification can be adopted in the two cases, in an eclectic model including real interest rate and productivity differentials, together with relative fiscal policy and net foreign asset positions. This…

An Analysis of the Time-Varying Behavior of the Equilibrium Velocity of Money in the Euro Area

Recent developments in inflation and M3 velocity in the euro area have raised serious doubts about the reliability of M3 growth as a pillar of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. We develop a very flexible and comprehensive state-space framework for modeling the velocity of circulation. Our specification allows for the estimation of different autoregressive alternatives and includes control instruments, whose coefficients can be set up either common or idiosyncratic. This is particularly useful to detect asymmetries in the reaction among countries to common shocks. Our findings first suggest that the downward trend of M3 velocity is mainly explained by the evolution of permanent income, pro…

Understanding german fdi in latin america and asia: a comparison of glm estimators

The growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in developing countries over the last decade has attracted an intense academic and policy-oriented interest for its determinants. Despite the gravity model being considered a useful tool to approximate bilateral FDI flows, the literature has seen a growing debate in relation to its econometric specification, so that which is the best estimator for the gravity equation is far from conclusive. This paper examines the determinants of German outward FDI in Latin America and Asia for the period 1996-2012 by evaluating the performance of alternative Generalized Linear Model (GLM) estimators. Our findings indicate that Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum …

New Evidence of the Real Interest Rate Parity for OECD Countries Using Panel Unit Root Tests with Breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

DOES REAL INTEREST RATE PARITY HOLD FOR OECD COUNTRIES? NEW EVIDENCE USING PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS WITH CROSS-SECTION DEPENDENCE AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS

This paper tests for real interest rate parity (RIRP) among the 17 major Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries over the period 1978:Q1–2006:Q1. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of panel data tests that are valid under cross-section dependence and the presence of multiple structural breaks. This feature is important because the misspecification errors due to not accounting for structural breaks and/or cross-section dependence can lead to misleading conclusions. Our results support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for short-term interest rate differentials once dependence and structural breaks are considered.

Differences in wage determination in the Eurozone: A challenge to the resilience of the common currency

Abstract Different developments in wages and unit labor costs across countries can reduce the synchronization of business cycles within a currency area and therefore be a potential source of asymmetric shocks and/or asymmetric response to a common shock. In this paper, we use novel econometric methods to identify differences and similarities in wage determination across Eurozone countries. Results show that wages have different determinants across euro area countries, among which two relatively distinct groups can be identified. In particular, wages in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Finland behave more similarly, are less sticky and respond more to macroeconomic …

The Euro and the Dollar in a Globalized Economy - Edited by J. Roy and P. Gomis-Porqueras

Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach

Abstract This paper analyzes the external solvency of a group of 23 OECD countries for the period 1970–2012. The empirical strategy adopted underlines the increasing importance of the financial channel for the external adjustment as proposed in Gourinchas and Rey (2007) . We unify the traditional approaches to testing for external sustainability considering the stock-flow system created by the variables representing the external relationships of an open economy. External sustainability is tested using several types of cointegration and multicointegration tests. The results obtained point to weak sustainability in the flows analysis, whereas some degree of strong sustainability is found for …

What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques

Abstract Despite the importance of Germany as an issuer of foreign direct investment (FDI), the studies analyzing its determinants are far from conclusive. This research contributes to filling this gap providing new evidence for the period 1996–2012. In order to reduce model uncertainty, we adopt a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach. We find that determinants associated with horizontal FDI appear to be dominant for explaining FDI in developed countries while for the group of developing countries covariates associated with vertical FDI motives play a larger role. Within Europe, while the majority of FDI is horizontally driven in “core” countries, in the “periphery” vertical motivations …

Is the environmental performance of industrialized countries converging? A ‘SURE’ approach to testing for convergence

In this paper, we test for convergence in the environmental performance of a sample of OECD countries, with data ranging from 1971 to 2002. First, we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to compute two environmental performance indicators (EPIs) in the production theory framework. Second, we propose the use of a sequential multivariate approach to test for convergence in environmental performance. These tests allow us to reconcile the time series literature with the cross-sectional dimension, which is basic when testing for convergence in regional blocs. The SURE technique is used, which allows for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean revers…

Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks†

This paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1956–2001. The tests exploit the cross-sectional variations of the series, and additionally, allow for a different number of endogenous breakpoints in the unemployment series. The critical values are simulated based on our specific panel sizes and time periods. The findings stress the importance of accounting for exogenous shocks in the series and support the natural-rate hypothesis of unemployment for the majority of the countries analysed.

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the Euro area

This paper tries to ascertain whether the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates was fulfilled for the EMU countries in the period previous to its launching. To this end, we employ individual country data for the Euro area. Using pooled and panel cointegration techniques we conclude that there is an equilibrium relationship linking the long and the short-run interest rates for both the individual countries and the panel as a whole. Due to the homogeneity found in the short-long term interest rates relationship across countries, the fears raised about the use of area-wide aggregates by the ECB if not discarded need to be, at least, qualified

Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC

The aim of this paper is to find some empirical evidence on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) in the Spanish case vis a vis the European Community for the period 1980–89. The main contribution of the paper is the aggregation of the variables corresponding to the countries that participate in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. The results support the importance of the interest differential as an explanatory variable for the short-term adjustment to the PPP. The results follow from powerful estimation techniques, applied in the framework of a multivariate error-correction model using the maximum-likelihood procedure as developed by Joh…

Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions

In this article we present evidence of the long-run effect of trade openness on income per worker for two regions that have followed different liberalization strategies, namely Asia and Latin America. A model that re-examines these questions is estimated for two panels of Asian and Latin American countries over the 1980-2008 period using a novel empirical approach that accounts for endogeneity as well as for the time series properties of the variables involved. From an econometric point of view, we apply recent panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for two additional elements usually neglected in previous empirical literature: cross-dependence and structural bre…

TESTING FOR REAL INTEREST RATE PARITY USING PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS WITH DEPENDENCE: A NOTE*

In this paper we test for real interest parity (RIRP) among the 19 major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q1–2006:Q1 using both short- and long-run definitions of interest rates. Once the independence hypothesis is rejected among these series, we test for RIRP using panel data unit root and stationarity tests based on common factor models that allow for pervasive forms of dependence. Our results indicate that there is no evidence in favor of the weak version of the RIRP since one of the common factors that have been estimated is non-stationary.

Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness

Abstract This paper tries to find, using panel cointegration techniques, the factors explaining the real exchange rate of the Spanish peseta following the monetary approach to exchange rate determination developed in Meese and Rogoff (1988). In addition to the real interest rate differential, the real oil price (adjusted accounting for the relative oil dependence of the countries considered) is included as one of the main long-run determinants. The results are favorable to this simple model, stressing the role played by both, demand and supply factors, to explain the behavior of the peseta real exchange rate. However, the results are not homogeneous in the case of the real oil prices: this …