Search results for "jel:F4"
showing 10 items of 20 documents
The Global Side of the Investments-Savings Puzzle
2008
In this paper we re-examine the long standing and puzzling correlation between national savings and investment in industrial countries. We apply an econometric methodology that allows us to separate idiosyncratic correlation at the country level from correlation at the global level. In a major break with the existing literature, we find no evidence of a long run relationship in the idiosyncratic components of savings and investment. We also find that the global components in savings and investments commove, indicating that they react to shocks of a global nature.
The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered
2017
Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample period. Although the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model is not consistent with these results, we suggest an explanation of the results in terms of contemporary variants of the model that incorporate the terms of trade mechanism. Specifically we argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We undertake simulations of the modern versions of the Balassa-Samuelson model to show that…
El tipo de cambio real dólar-euro y el diferencial de intereses reales
2006
This paper investigates whether threshold effects exist in the relationship between dollar-euro real exchange rate and real interest differential, over the period January 1984 to December 2004. We specify a three-regime threshold model and the results provide evidence that there is no threshold effect in the short term, but the nonlinear behaviour of real exchange rate implies threshold effect in the long term. On the other hand, the nonlinearity into the behaviour of real exchange rates can be modelled by a Band-TAR which implies a symmetric response to the real interest differential outside the bank. Finally, into the threshold band the behaviour of real exchange rate is near to follow a …
THE NEW ECONOMY - A 360 DEGREE VIEW
2012
This paper is a review of the literature` mainstream on economic development, political views and the way new economic policies and measures are implemented through formal and informal channels, including here the North American lobby` system. As a solution resulted from this paper there are some forecasted directory views that could lead to a future linear development of the global economy and to a tempered glow in the global account, or between commercial trades of some countries.
Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation
2015
We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding sh…
The Taxation of Financial Capital Under Asymmetric Information and the Tax-Competition Paradox
2003
Information sharing between governments is examined in an optimal-taxation framework. We introduce a taxonomy of alternative systems of international capital-income taxation and characterize the choice of tax rates and information exchange. The model reproduces the conclusion found in earlier literature that integration of international caopital markets may lead to the under-provision of publicly provided goods. However, in contrast to previous results in the literature, under-provision occurs due to inefficiently coordinated expectations. We show that there exists a second equilibrium with an efficient level of public-good provision as well as complete and voluntary information exchange be…
Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour
2007
In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in eleven industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.
Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union
2009
This paper analyses sectoral business cycle synchronization in an enlarged European Union using annual data for the period 1980-2005. In particular, we try to identify which sector for each country is driving the aggregate output business cycle synchronization. Overall, the sectors that provide the most relevant contribution are Industry, Building and Construction, and Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry. In contrast, the Services sector, the largest one in terms of valued added share, shows a relative low business cycle synchronization and volatility, implying that it contributes only marginally to the aggregate output business cycle synchronization.
TESTING FOR CONTAGION: A CONDITIONAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS
2005
Abstract In this paper, we test for contagion within the East Asian region, contagion being defined as a significant increase in the degree of comovement between stock returns in different countries. For this purpose, we use a parameter stability test, and, following [Rigobon, R., 2003a. On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?, Journal of International Economics], we control for three types of bias, resulting from heteroscedasticity, endogeneity and omitted variable, respectively. The null of interdependence against the alternative of contagion is then tested as an overidentifying restriction. Unlike other studies, our approach is based on …
ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLES CONVERGENCE IN A SWITCHING REGIME VIEW
2012
In this paper I analyzed the convergence between Romanian and Euro Zone`s business cycles using a Switching approach. Considering the evolution of final consumption expenditure as proxy for the business cycles, the underlying study is calibrated on the second key feature of Burns and Mitchell`s (1946) definition about business cycles, namely the cycles are divided and also treated differently for cases of expansionary and downward regimes. Therefore a cyclical convergence between Romanian and Euro Zone`s business cycles is characterized by synchronization in the occurrence of different regimes (states) and also in the time for which these regimes are standing up. For this purpose, I called …