Search results for "mallit"
showing 10 items of 395 documents
Driving through floodwater: Exploring driver decisions through the lived experience
2019
Abstract More than half of unintentional flood-related drowning deaths in Australia are due to driving through floodwater, despite on-going public campaigns. Currently, there is a knowledge gap in understanding why individuals choose to drive through floodwater and the decisions that may lead to such actions. We propose that a more complete understanding of individuals’ decisions to drive through floodwater needs to be considered in the context of the lived experience. Australian drivers (N = 20) who had intentionally driven through floodwater participated in semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using a thematic analysis based in an interpretivist approach. Past experience, indivi…
Environmentally‐induced noise dampens and reddens with increasing trophic level in a complex food web
2019
Stochastic variability of key abiotic factors including temperature, precipitation and the availability of light and nutrients greatly influences species’ ecological function and evolutionary fate. Despite such influence, ecologists have typically ignored the effect of abiotic stochasticity on the structure and dynamics of ecological networks. Here we help to fill that gap by advancing the theory of how abiotic stochasticity, in the form of environmental noise, affects the population dynamics of species within food webs. We do this by analysing an allometric trophic network model of Lake Constance subjected to positive (red), negative (blue), and non‐autocorrelated (white) abiotic temporal …
Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis
2020
Abstract Background Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country. Methods The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indic…
Calibrating Expert Assessments Using Hierarchical Gaussian Process Models
2020
Expert assessments are routinely used to inform management and other decision making. However, often these assessments contain considerable biases and uncertainties for which reason they should be calibrated if possible. Moreover, coherently combining multiple expert assessments into one estimate poses a long-standing problem in statistics since modeling expert knowledge is often difficult. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian model for expert calibration in a task of estimating a continuous univariate parameter. The model allows experts' biases to vary as a function of the true value of the parameter and according to the expert's background. We follow the fully Bayesian approach (the s…
Precision, Applicability, and Economic Implications: A Comparison of Alternative Biodiversity Offset Indexes
2021
AbstractThe rates of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss are alarming and current conservation efforts are not sufficient to stop them. The need for new tools is urgent. One approach is biodiversity offsetting: a developer causing habitat degradation provides an improvement in biodiversity so that the lost ecological value is compensated for. Accurate and ecologically meaningful measurement of losses and estimation of gains are essential in reaching the no net loss goal or any other desired outcome of biodiversity offsetting. The chosen calculation method strongly influences biodiversity outcomes. We compare a multiplicative method, which is based on a habitat condition index develo…
Efficient estimation of generalized linear latent variable models.
2019
Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVM) are popular tools for modeling multivariate, correlated responses. Such data are often encountered, for instance, in ecological studies, where presence-absences, counts, or biomass of interacting species are collected from a set of sites. Until very recently, the main challenge in fitting GLLVMs has been the lack of computationally efficient estimation methods. For likelihood based estimation, several closed form approximations for the marginal likelihood of GLLVMs have been proposed, but their efficient implementations have been lacking in the literature. To fill this gap, we show in this paper how to obtain computationally convenient estim…
Forecasting the volatility of biofuel feedstock prices: the US evidence
2019
Given that, nowadays, 40% of the US corn crop is used for biofuel production, there is a growing concern that the rise in biofuel production might lead to an increase in food prices. However, it is also obvious that significant growth in biofuel use has minimized the demand for fossil fuel and has hence reduced the volume of carbon emissions. It is therefore crucial to model corn market volatility precisely because such an estimate could play a vital role in stabilizing food and biofuel market prices. For this purpose, we consider using the information content of the corn implied volatility (CIV) index to predict the corn futures market return volatility. Using symmetric and asymmetric GARC…
Hierarchical log Gaussian Cox process for regeneration in uneven-aged forests
2021
We propose a hierarchical log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) for point patterns, where a set of points x affects another set of points y but not vice versa. We use the model to investigate the effect of large trees to the locations of seedlings. In the model, every point in x has a parametric influence kernel or signal, which together form an influence field. Conditionally on the parameters, the influence field acts as a spatial covariate in the intensity of the model, and the intensity itself is a non-linear function of the parameters. Points outside the observation window may affect the influence field inside the window. We propose an edge correction to account for this missing data. The par…
The effect of fish life-history structures on the topologies of aquatic food webs
2021
Biological organisms can vastly change their ecological functionality due to changes in body size and diet across their life. Consequently, it has been increasingly recognized that to attain sufficient biological realism, food webs may need to include life-history structures. The objective of the work is to study theoretically whether and how the inclusion of life-history structures affects the food web topology. Topological research was done by applying network theory metrics for three different food web types with two different sizes that were generated by using the niche-model. The dynamical modeling was performed by using an allometric trophic network modeling approach. The different ty…
Interactive effects of aging and aerobic capacity on energy metabolism-related metabolites of serum, skeletal muscle, and white adipose tissue
2021
ABSTRACTAerobic capacity is a strong predictor of longevity. With aging, aerobic capacity decreases concomitantly with changes in whole body metabolism leading to increased disease risk. To address the role of aerobic capacity, aging and their interaction on metabolism, we utilized rat models of low and high intrinsic aerobic capacity (LCRs/HCRs) and assessed the metabolomics of serum, muscle, and white adipose tissue (WAT). We compared LCRs and HCRs at two time points: Young rats were sacrificed at 9 months, and old rats were sacrificed at 21 months. Targeted and semi-quantitative metabolomics analysis was performed on ultra-pressure Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry (UPLC-MS)…