Search results for "markov chain"
showing 10 items of 288 documents
Pairwise Markov properties for regression graphs
2016
With a sequence of regressions, one may generate joint probability distributions. One starts with a joint, marginal distribution of context variables having possibly a concentration graph structure and continues with an ordered sequence of conditional distributions, named regressions in joint responses. The involved random variables may be discrete, continuous or of both types. Such a generating process specifies for each response a conditioning set that contains just its regressor variables, and it leads to at least one valid ordering of all nodes in the corresponding regression graph that has three types of edge: one for undirected dependences among context variables, another for undirect…
MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions
2006
Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.
Bayesian Mapping of Lichens Growing on Trees
2001
Suitability of trees as hosts for epiphytic lichens are studied in a forest stand of size 25 ha. Suitability is measured as occupation probabilites which are modelled using hierarchical Bayesian approach. These probabilities are useful for an ecologist. They give smoothed spatial distribution map of suitability for each of the species and can be used in detecting high- and low-probability areas. In addition, suitability is explained by tree-level covariates. Spatial dependence, which is due to unobserved spatially structured covariates, is modelled through an unobserved Markov random field. Markov chain Monte Carlo method has been applied in Bayesian computation. The extensive spatial data …
Componentwise adaptation for high dimensional MCMC
2005
We introduce a new adaptive MCMC algorithm, based on the traditional single component Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and on our earlier adaptive Metropolis algorithm (AM). In the new algorithm the adaption is performed component by component. The chain is no more Markovian, but it remains ergodic. The algorithm is demonstrated to work well in varying test cases up to 1000 dimensions.
Adaptive Metropolis algorithm using variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter
2013
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are powerful computational tools for analysis of complex statistical problems. However, their computational efficiency is highly dependent on the chosen proposal distribution, which is generally difficult to find. One way to solve this problem is to use adaptive MCMC algorithms which automatically tune the statistics of a proposal distribution during the MCMC run. A new adaptive MCMC algorithm, called the variational Bayesian adaptive Metropolis (VBAM) algorithm, is developed. The VBAM algorithm updates the proposal covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter (VB-AKF). A strong law of large numbers for the VBAM algorithm is…
Bayesian Smoothing in the Estimation of the Pair Potential Function of Gibbs Point Processes
1999
A flexible Bayesian method is suggested for the pair potential estimation with a high-dimensional parameter space. The method is based on a Bayesian smoothing technique, commonly applied in statistical image analysis. For the calculation of the posterior mode estimator a new Monte Carlo algorithm is developed. The method is illustrated through examples with both real and simulated data, and its extension into truly nonparametric pair potential estimation is discussed.
Uniform ergodicity of the iterated conditional SMC and geometric ergodicity of particle Gibbs samplers
2018
We establish quantitative bounds for rates of convergence and asymptotic variances for iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-cSMC) Markov chains and associated particle Gibbs samplers. Our main findings are that the essential boundedness of potential functions associated with the i-cSMC algorithm provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform ergodicity of the i-cSMC Markov chain, as well as quantitative bounds on its (uniformly geometric) rate of convergence. Furthermore, we show that the i-cSMC Markov chain cannot even be geometrically ergodic if this essential boundedness does not hold in many applications of interest. Our sufficiency and quantitative bounds rely on…
Some links between conditional and coregionalized multivariate Gaussian Markov random fields
2020
Abstract Multivariate disease mapping models are attracting considerable attention. Many modeling proposals have been made in this area, which could be grouped into three large sets: coregionalization, multivariate conditional and univariate conditional models. In this work we establish some links between these three groups of proposals. Specifically, we explore the equivalence between the two conditional approaches and show that an important class of coregionalization models can be seen as a large subclass of the conditional approaches. Additionally, we propose an extension to the current set of coregionalization models with some new unexplored proposals. This extension is able to reproduc…
Statistical relationship between hardness of drinking water and cerebrovascular mortality in Valencia: a comparison of spatiotemporal models
2003
The statistical detection of environmental risk factors in public health studies is usually difficult due to the weakness of their effects and their confounding with other covariates. Small area geographical data bring the opportunity of observing health response in a wide variety of exposure values. Temporal sequences of these geographical datasets are crucial to gaining statistical power in detecting factors. The spatiotemporal models required to perform the statistical analysis have to allow for spatial and temporal correlations, which are more easily modelled via hierarchical structures of hidden random factors. These models have produced important research activity during the last deca…
Variable Length Memory Chains: Characterization of stationary probability measures
2021
Variable Length Memory Chains (VLMC), which are generalizations of finite order Markov chains, turn out to be an essential tool to modelize random sequences in many domains, as well as an interesting object in contemporary probability theory. The question of the existence of stationary probability measures leads us to introduce a key combinatorial structure for words produced by a VLMC: the Longest Internal Suffix. This notion allows us to state a necessary and sufficient condition for a general VLMC to admit a unique invariant probability measure. This condition turns out to get a much simpler form for a subclass of VLMC: the stable VLMC. This natural subclass, unlike the general case, enj…