Search results for "monetary"
showing 10 items of 502 documents
Determining the RMB Exchange Regime
2011
Although China has claimed since 2005 that it will move towards a more market-oriented system of managing its foreign exchange, it has remained, in part, a managed economic system. This chapter examines the relative importance of fundamentalist, chartist and currency arrangements in determining the RMB exchange regime using both traditional linear and non-linear artificial intelligence models. We find that the emphasis on the US dollar as a reference currency has declined. Fundamentalist forces are becoming strong determinants of the currency exchange. The genetic programming approach is among the best performing in minimizing forecasting error.
Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, U.S. house prices and the long shadow of banking deregulation
2015
We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding sh…
Capital Regulation with Heterogeneous Banks
2013
We provide a general equilibrium analysis of potential consequences from the introduction of a binding leverage ratio, as proposed in Basel III. If banks differ in their monitoring skills and their ability to successfully complete a risky investment project, a tighter leverage ratio does not only mitigate moral hazard arising from limited liability, but also carries an unintended consequence: Banks are not allowed to absorb the entire supply of debt if they cannot raise new equity, which induces agents with a lower monitoring skill to open a bank. This decreases the average ability of operating banks. We further show that rising heterogeneity in the banking sector increases this negative ef…
Does persistence in using R&D tax credits help to achieve product innovations?
2021
Despite the generosity of its tax system, Spain is far from EU countries in terms of R&D spending and innovation outcomes. A policy instrument commonly used to foster firms’ R&D investment are tax incentives. The use of this instrument is not generalized in firms spending on R&D, and only a fraction of firms are regular claimants. This paper investigates whether persistence in using tax credits is positively related to product innovations, beyond R&D investments. We consider that firms investing in qualified R&D and using tax credits regularly are likely to be firms aiming at innovating. By contrast, occasional tax credit users may be firms investing in R&D for different reasons, such as ex…
German bank lending to industrial and non-industrial countries: driven by fundamentals or different treatment?
2005
This paper shows that the substantial disparity in German bank lending towards industrial (IC) and non-industrial (Non-IC) countries is largely explained by differences in countries' endowments and only to a minor extent by German banks' different treatment of these country groups. This is demonstrated by applying a decomposition technique to an augmented gravity model that is estimated for German foreign lending using a new micro panel data-set on individual claims from the Deutsche Bundesbank covering the period from 1996 to 2002.
International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending
2019
This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S. cross-border bank lending towards the 45 recipient countries to exogenous domestic fiscal shocks (both measured by spending and revenue) between 1990Q1 and 2012Q4, we find that expansionary domestic fiscal shocks lead to a statistically significant increase in cross-border bank lending. The magnitude of the effect is also economically significant: the effect of 1 percent of GDP increase (decrease) in spending (revenue) is comparable to an exogenous decline in the federal funds ra…
Fiscal multipliers and job-protection regulation
2021
Abstract We study, both theoretically and empirically, how labor market regulation affects fiscal multipliers. We focus on the stringency of employment protection legislation, a prominent source of rigidity in European labor markets. First, using a small-open economy model that features labor-market search-and-matching frictions and nominal rigidities, we show that an increase in government spending has larger output effects when firing costs are lower. The importance of layoff costs for the public spending multiplier is larger in the absence of exchange rate adjustment and in a recession. Second, we confirm these findings empirically using a panel of 26 advanced countries over the period 1…
Asymmetrical Crisis in the European Union: The Example of Greece
2020
The article presents the current economic crisis from an historical perspective, analyzing the building of the monetary integration and the common currency. The process is explained pointing out its effects on the European integration and outlining the positive and negative consequences of the introduction of a common currency in the European Union. The investigation continues with a general outlook of the current situation of the countries more affected by the current crisis, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. All of them have in common the necessity of extra funding in a context of austerity, plus some national particularities. The author proposes an expansion in the public spend…
Threshold Effects in the US Budget Deficit
2003
We contribute to the debate on whether the large U.S. federal budget deficits are sustainable in the long run. We model the U.S. government deficit per capita as a threshold autoregressive process. We find evidence that the U.S. budget deficit is sustainable in the long run and that economic policymakers will intervene to reduce per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold.
Turning Poland Around The Polish Economy 1990 2009
2011
This article gives a description of the policy pursued by the Polish Government and the National Bank of Poland in the transformation of the Polish economy from a central planning economy to a market economy. There is special focus on the monetary economy, and most focus is laid on the first years of the transformation process.The article also gives a presentation of the development of the main macroeconomic figures for the whole period since the introduction of the new economic system in Poland.