Search results for "probability"

Partially revocable commitments in a negotiation with a deadline

2004

Abstract [Fershtman, C., Seidmann, D., 1993. Deadline effects and inefficient delay in bargaining with endogenous commitment. Journal of Economic Theory 60, 306–321] showed that the presence of an irrevocable endogenous commitment with a fixed deadline results in the so called deadline effect. In this paper we analyse the effects of partially revocable endogenous commitments of a seller in an infinite horizon negotiation in which a deadline can arise with positive probability. We obtain that when the commitment possesses a sufficiently large revocable part not only the inefficient delays disappear and an immediate agreement is reached but also the commitment has a value. On the other hand, …

Coordination of Wage Bargaining, Exchange Rate Stability and External Adjustment

2016

The literature on the determinants of the rate of current account reversion has been limited to examining the role of exchange rate regimes. We propose that the degree of coordination of wage bargaining affects the speed of current account adjustment. Our point estimates are economically and statistically significant, suggesting that fragmented firm-level wage bargaining facilitates external adjustment. We also find a strong negative interaction between the effects of coordination of wage bargaining and exchange rate stability on the rate of current account reversion.

Correction to: The Many Faces of Human Sociality: Uncovering the Distribution and Stability of Social Preferences

2019

A Bayesian direction-of-arrival model for an undetermined number of sources using a two-microphone array.

2014

Sound source localization using a two-microphone array is an active area of research, with considerable potential for use with video conferencing, mobile devices, and robotics. Based on the observed time-differences of arrival between sound signals, a probability distribution of the location of the sources is considered to estimate the actual source positions. However, these algorithms assume a given number of sound sources. This paper describes an updated research account on the solution presented in Escolano et al. [J. Acoust. Am. Soc. 132(3), 1257-1260 (2012)], where nested sampling is used to explore a probability distribution of the source position using a Laplacian mixture model, whic…

2021

Fluctuation–dissipation relations or “theorems” (FDTs) are fundamental for statistical physics and can be rigorously derived for equilibrium systems. Their applicability to non-equilibrium systems is, however, debated. Here, we simulate an active microrheology experiment, in which a spherical colloid is pulled with a constant external force through a fluid, creating near-equilibrium and far-from-equilibrium systems. We characterize the structural and dynamical properties of these systems, and reconstruct an effective generalized Langevin equation (GLE) for the colloid dynamics. Specifically, we test the validity of two FDTs: The first FDT relates the non-equilibrium response of a system to …

The migrant crisis in the Mediterranean Sea: Empirical evidence on policy interventions

2021

Abstract This paper presents a novel set of empirical evidence to explore several hypotheses regarding the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean Sea. The political instability in transit countries, such as Libya, that made pre-existent repatriation policies ineffective, called for several search-and-rescue operations in the Mediterranean, which in turn have been wrongly accused of fostering illegal immigration and increasing deaths at sea. The empirical results show that the main determinants of the departures are several root causes at the departing African countries, underlining the importance of fighting human smuggling networks. The paper suggests a change in migration studies’ perspectiv…

Traditional endodontic surgery versus modern technique: a 5-year controlled clinical trial.

2014

In this study, we compared outcomes of traditional apicoectomy versus modern apicoectomy, by means of a controlled clinical trial with a 5-year follow-up. The study investigated 938 teeth in 843 patients. On the basis of the procedure performed, the teeth were grouped in 3 groups. Differences between the groups were the method of osteotomy (type of instruments used), type of preparation of retrograde cavity (different apicoectomy angles and instruments used for root-end preparation), and root-end filling material used (gray mineral trioxide aggregate or silver amalgam). Outcome (tooth healing) was estimated after 1 and 5 years, postoperatively. Clinical success rates after 1 year were 67% (…

Graph Topology Learning and Signal Recovery Via Bayesian Inference

2019

The estimation of a meaningful affinity graph has become a crucial task for representation of data, since the underlying structure is not readily available in many applications. In this paper, a topology inference framework, called Bayesian Topology Learning, is proposed to estimate the underlying graph topology from a given set of noisy measurements of signals. It is assumed that the graph signals are generated from Gaussian Markov Random Field processes. First, using a factor analysis model, the noisy measured data is represented in a latent space and its posterior probability density function is found. Thereafter, by utilizing the minimum mean square error estimator and the Expectation M…

Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small basins

2014

Flow duration curve (FDC) represents a comprehensive signature of temporal runoff variability often used to synthesize catchment rainfall-runoff responses. A new model, the ModABa (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small BAsins), is here introduced. It can be thought as a wide mosaic whose tesserae are frameworks, models or conceptual schemes separately developed in different studies and harmoniously interconnected with the final aim of reproducing the annual FDC in intermittent small catchments. Two separated seasons within the hydrological year are distinguished: a dry season, characterized by absence of streamflow, and a non-zero season. Streamflow is disaggre…

Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Average Least Squares: Equivariance, Stability, and Numerical Issues

2011

This article is concerned with the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and the Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) estimator developed by Magnus et al. (2010). Unlike standard pretest estimators which are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Special emphasis is given to a number pra…