Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Temporal aggregation in chain graph models
2005
The dependence structure of an observed process induced by temporal aggregation of a time evolving hidden spatial phenomenon is addressed. Data are described by means of chain graph models and an algorithm to compute the chain graph resulting from the temporal aggregation of a directed acyclic graph is provided. This chain graph is the best graph which covers the independencies of the resulting process within the chain graph class. A sufficient condition that produces a memory loss of the observed process with respect to its hidden origin is analyzed. Some examples are used for illustrating algorithms and results.
Time-dependent weak rate of convergence for functions of generalized bounded variation
2016
Let $W$ denote the Brownian motion. For any exponentially bounded Borel function $g$ the function $u$ defined by $u(t,x)= \mathbb{E}[g(x{+}\sigma W_{T-t})]$ is the stochastic solution of the backward heat equation with terminal condition $g$. Let $u^n(t,x)$ denote the corresponding approximation generated by a simple symmetric random walk with time steps $2T/n$ and space steps $\pm \sigma \sqrt{T/n}$ where $\sigma > 0$. For quite irregular terminal conditions $g$ (bounded variation on compact intervals, locally H\"older continuous) the rate of convergence of $u^n(t,x)$ to $u(t,x)$ is considered, and also the behavior of the error $u^n(t,x)-u(t,x)$ as $t$ tends to $T$
Weather Derivatives and Stochastic Modelling of Temperature
2011
We propose a continuous-time autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics with volatility being the product of a seasonal function and a stochastic process. We use the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model for the stochastic volatility. The proposed temperature dynamics is flexible enough to model temperature data accurately, and at the same time being analytically tractable. Futures prices for commonly traded contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on indices like cooling- and heating-degree days and cumulative average temperatures are computed, as well as option prices on them.
A Monte Carlo study comparing PIV, ULS and DWLS in the estimation of dichotomous confirmatory factor analysis
2012
We conducted a Monte Carlo study to investigate the performance of the polychoric instrumental variable estimator (PIV) in comparison to unweighted least squares (ULS) and diagonally weighted least squares (DWLS) in the estimation of a confirmatory factor analysis model with dichotomous indicators. The simulation involved 144 conditions (1,000 replications per condition) that were defined by a combination of (a) two types of latent factor models, (b) four sample sizes (100, 250, 500, 1,000), (c) three factor loadings (low, moderate, strong), (d) three levels of non-normality (normal, moderately, and extremely non-normal), and (e) whether the factor model was correctly specified or misspecif…
A penalized approach for the bivariate ordered logistic model with applications to social and medical data
2018
Bivariate ordered logistic models (BOLMs) are appealing to jointly model the marginal distribution of two ordered responses and their association, given a set of covariates. When the number of categories of the responses increases, the number of global odds ratios to be estimated also increases, and estimation gets problematic. In this work we propose a non-parametric approach for the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of a BOLM, wherein penalties to the differences between adjacent row and column effects are applied. Our proposal is then compared to the Goodman and Dale models. Some simulation results as well as analyses of two real data sets are presented and discussed.
Expert-based versus citation-based ranking of scholarly and scientific publication channels
2016
Abstract The Finnish publication channel quality ranking system was established in 2010. The system is expert-based, where separate panels decide and update the rankings of a set of publications channels allocated to them. The aggregated rankings have a notable role in the allocation of public resources into universities. The purpose of this article is to analyze this national ranking system. The analysis is mainly based on two publicly available databases containing the publication source information and the actual national publication activity information. Using citation-based indicators and other available information with association rule mining, decision trees, and confusion matrices, …
Versatile entropic measure of grey level inhomogeneity
2009
The entropic measure for analysis of grey level inhomogeneity (GLI) is proposed as a function of length scale. It allows us to quantify the statistical dissimilarity of the actual macrostate and the maximizing entropy of the reference one. The maximums (minimums) of the measure indicate those scales at which higher (lower) average grey level inhomogeneity appears compared to neighbour scales. Even a deeply hidden statistical grey level periodicity can be detected by the equally distant minimums of the measure. The striking effect of multiple intersecting curves (MIC) of the measure has been revealed for pairs of simulated patterns, which differ in shades of grey or symmetry properties, only…
Asymptotic optimality of myopic information-based strategies for Bayesian adaptive estimation
2016
This paper presents a general asymptotic theory of sequential Bayesian estimation giving results for the strongest, almost sure convergence. We show that under certain smoothness conditions on the probability model, the greedy information gain maximization algorithm for adaptive Bayesian estimation is asymptotically optimal in the sense that the determinant of the posterior covariance in a certain neighborhood of the true parameter value is asymptotically minimal. Using this result, we also obtain an asymptotic expression for the posterior entropy based on a novel definition of almost sure convergence on "most trials" (meaning that the convergence holds on a fraction of trials that converge…
On Independent Component Analysis with Stochastic Volatility Models
2017
Consider a multivariate time series where each component series is assumed to be a linear mixture of latent mutually independent stationary time series. Classical independent component analysis (ICA) tools, such as fastICA, are often used to extract latent series, but they don't utilize any information on temporal dependence. Also financial time series often have periods of low and high volatility. In such settings second order source separation methods, such as SOBI, fail. We review here some classical methods used for time series with stochastic volatility, and suggest modifications of them by proposing a family of vSOBI estimators. These estimators use different nonlinearity functions to…
Tests against stationary and explosive alternatives in vector autoregressive models
2008
. The article proposes new tests for the number of unit roots in vector autoregressive models based on the eigenvalues of the companion matrix. Both stationary and explosive alternatives are considered. The limiting distributions of test statistics depend only on the number of unit roots. Size and power are investigated, and it is found that the new test against some stationary alternatives compares favourably with the widely used likelihood ratio test for the cointegrating rank. The powers are prominently higher against explosive than against stationary alternatives. Some empirical examples are provided to show how to use the new tests with real data.