Search results for "probability"

S36.4: Control of false discovery rate in adaptive designs

2004

Rare events and scaling properties in field-induced anomalous dynamics

2012

We show that, in a broad class of continuous time random walks (CTRW), a small external field can turn diffusion from standard into anomalous. We illustrate our findings in a CTRW with trapping, a prototype of subdiffusion in disordered and glassy materials, and in the L\'evy walk process, which describes superdiffusion within inhomogeneous media. For both models, in the presence of an external field, rare events induce a singular behavior in the originally Gaussian displacements distribution, giving rise to power-law tails. Remarkably, in the subdiffusive CTRW, the combined effect of highly fluctuating waiting times and of a drift yields a non-Gaussian distribution characterized by long sp…

Applications of statistical mechanics to finance

1999

Abstract We discuss some apparently “universal” aspects observed in the empirical analysis of stock price dynamics in financial markets. Specifically we consider (i) the empirical behavior of the return probability density function and (ii) the content of economic information in financial time series.

The Heisenberg picture in the analysis of stock markets and in other sociological contexts

2007

We review some recent results concerning some toy models of stock markets. Our models are suggested by the discrete nature of the number of shares and of the cash which are exchanged in a real market, and by the existence of conserved quantities, like the total number of shares or some linear combination of the cash and the shares. This suggests to use the same tools used in quantum mechanics and, in particular, the Heisenberg picture to describe the time behavior of the portfolio of each trader. We finally propose the use of this same framework in other sociological contexts.

Quantum averaging for driven systems with resonances

2000

Abstract We discuss the effects of resonances in driven quantum systems within the context of quantum averaging techniques in the Floquet representation. We consider in particular iterative methods of KAM type and the extensions needed to take into account resonances. The approach consists in separating the coupling terms into resonant and nonresonant components at a given scale of time and intensity. The nonresonant part can be treated with perturbative techniques, which we formulate in terms of KAM-type unitary transformations that are close to the identity. These can be interpreted as averaging procedures with respect to the dynamics defined by effective uncoupled Hamiltonians. The reson…

Cross-diffusion-induced subharmonic spatial resonances in a predator-prey system.

2018

In this paper we investigate the complex dynamics originated by a cross-diffusion-induced subharmonic destabilization of the fundamental subcritical Turing mode in a predator-prey reaction-diffusion system. The model we consider consists of a two-species Lotka-Volterra system with linear diffusion and a nonlinear cross-diffusion term in the predator equation. The taxis term in the search strategy of the predator is responsible for the onset of complex dynamics. In fact, our model does not exhibit any Hopf or wave instability, and on the basis of the linear analysis one should only expect stationary patterns; nevertheless, the presence of the nonlinear cross-diffusion term is able to induce …

A topological phase transition between small-worlds and fractal scaling in urban railway transportation networks?

2009

Abstract Fractal and small-worlds scaling laws are applied to study the growth of urban railway transportation networks using total length and total population as observational parameters. In spite of the variety of populations and urban structures, the variation of the total length of the railway network with the total population of conurbations follows similar patterns for large and middle metropolis. Diachronous analysis of data for urban transportation networks suggests that there is second-order phase transition from small-worlds behaviour to fractal scaling during their early stages of development.

Rough linear PDE's with discontinuous coefficients - existence of solutions via regularization by fractional Brownian motion

2020

We consider two related linear PDE's perturbed by a fractional Brownian motion. We allow the drift to be discontinuous, in which case the corresponding deterministic equation is ill-posed. However, the noise will be shown to have a regularizing effect on the equations in the sense that we can prove existence of solutions for almost all paths of the fractional Brownian motion.

Probabilistic characterization of nonlinear systems under α-stable white noise via complex fractional moments

2015

Abstract The probability density function of the response of a nonlinear system under external α -stable Levy white noise is ruled by the so called Fractional Fokker–Planck equation. In such equation the diffusive term is the Riesz fractional derivative of the probability density function of the response. The paper deals with the solution of such equation by using the complex fractional moments. The analysis is performed in terms of probability density for a linear and a non-linear half oscillator forced by Levy white noise with different stability indexes α . Numerical results are reported for a wide range of non-linearity of the mechanical system and stability index of the Levy white nois…

Assessing uncertainty of voter transitions estimated from aggregated data. Application to the 2017 French presidential election

2020

[EN] Inferring electoral individual behaviour from aggregated data is a very active research area, with ramifications in sociology and political science. A new approach based on linear programming is proposed to estimate voter transitions among parties (or candidates) between two elections. Compared to other linear and quadratic programming models previously published, our approach presents two important innovations. Firstly, it explicitly deals with new entries and exits in the election census without assuming unrealistic hypotheses, enabling a reasonable estimation of vote behaviour of young electors voting for the first time. Secondly, by exploiting the information contained in the model…