Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Cluster Monte Carlo algorithms
1990
Abstract The Swendsen-Wang and Wolff Monte Carlo algorithms are described in some detail, using the Potts model as an example. Various generalizations are then reviewed and some applications are discussed. Two complete Fortran programs for the algorithms are provided.
Statistics in Education
2015
During the last few decades, educational systems have attracted a great deal of interest because they are closely related to economic and social systems. For example, ‘higher education has been affected by a number of changes, including higher rates of participation, internationalization, the growing importance of knowledge-led economies and increased global completion’ (Bologna Process, 1999). There is a worldwide need to include in the educational language new words and concepts such as assessment, evaluation, accountability, student performance, mobility, competitiveness as part of a new governance system
Prokaryotic symbiotic consortia and the origin of nucleated cells: A critical review of Lynn Margulis hypothesis.
2021
The publication in the late 1960s of Lynn Margulis endosymbiotic proposal is a scientific milestone that brought to the fore of evolutionary discussions the issue of the origin of nucleated cells. Although it is true that the times were ripe, the timely publication of Lynn Margulis' original paper was the product of an intellectually bold 29-years old scientist, who based on the critical analysis of the available scientific information produced an all-encompassing, sophisticated narrative scheme on the origin of eukaryotic cells as a result of the evolution of prokaryotic consortia and, in bold intellectual stroke, put it all in the context of planetary evolution. A critical historical reas…
Comments on "Identifying inconsistency in network meta-analysis: Is the net heat plot a reliable method?"
2021
One of the biggest challenges for network meta‐analysis is inconsistency, which occurs when the direct and indirect evidence conflict. Inconsistency causes problems for the estimation and interpretation of treatment effects and treatment contrasts. Krahn and colleagues proposed the net heat approach as a graphical tool for identifying and locating inconsistency within a network of randomized controlled trials. For networks with a treatment loop, the net heat plot displays statistics calculated by temporarily removing each design one at a time, in turn, and assessing the contribution of each remaining design to the inconsistency. The net heat plot takes the form of a matrix which is displaye…
Modelling the Frequency of Interarrival Times and Rainfall Depths with the Poisson Hurwitz-Lerch Zeta Distribution
2022
The Poisson-stopped sum of the Hurwitz–Lerch zeta distribution is proposed as a model for interarrival times and rainfall depths. Theoretical properties and characterizations are investigated in comparison with other two models implemented to perform the same task: the Hurwitz–Lerch zeta distribution and the one inflated Hurwitz–Lerch zeta distribution. Within this framework, the capability of these three distributions to fit the main statistical features of rainfall time series was tested on a dataset never previously considered in the literature and chosen in order to represent very different climates from the rainfall characteristics point of view. The results address t…
Estimating aggregated nutrient fluxes in four Finnish rivers via Gaussian state space models
2013
Reliable estimates of the nutrient fluxes carried by rivers from land-based sources to the sea are needed for efficient abatement of marine eutrophication. Although nutrient concentrations in rivers generally display large temporal variation, sampling and analysis for nutrients, unlike flow measurements, are rarely performed on a daily basis. The infrequent data calls for ways to reliably estimate the nutrient concentrations of the missing days. Here, we use the Gaussian state space models with daily water flow as a predictor variable to predict missing nutrient concentrations for four agriculturally impacted Finnish rivers. Via simulation of Gaussian state space models, we are able to esti…
Importance sampling type estimators based on approximate marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo
2020
We consider importance sampling (IS) type weighted estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) targeting an approximate marginal of the target distribution. In the context of Bayesian latent variable models, the MCMC typically operates on the hyperparameters, and the subsequent weighting may be based on IS or sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), but allows for multilevel techniques as well. The IS approach provides a natural alternative to delayed acceptance (DA) pseudo-marginal/particle MCMC, and has many advantages over DA, including a straightforward parallelisation and additional flexibility in MCMC implementation. We detail minimal conditions which ensure strong consistency of the sug…
Bayesian assessment of times to diagnosis in breast cancer screening
2008
Breast cancer is one of the diseases with the most profound impact on health in developed countries and mammography is the most popular method for detecting breast cancer at a very early stage. This paper focuses on the waiting period from a positive mammogram until a confirmatory diagnosis is carried out in hospital. Generalized linear mixed models are used to perform the statistical analysis, always within the Bayesian reasoning. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are applied for estimation by simulating the posterior distribution of the parameters and hyperparameters of the model through the free software WinBUGS.
The smallest singular value of a shifted $d$-regular random square matrix
2017
We derive a lower bound on the smallest singular value of a random d-regular matrix, that is, the adjacency matrix of a random d-regular directed graph. Specifically, let $$C_1<d< c n/\log ^2 n$$ and let $$\mathcal {M}_{n,d}$$ be the set of all $$n\times n$$ square matrices with 0 / 1 entries, such that each row and each column of every matrix in $$\mathcal {M}_{n,d}$$ has exactly d ones. Let M be a random matrix uniformly distributed on $$\mathcal {M}_{n,d}$$ . Then the smallest singular value $$s_{n} (M)$$ of M is greater than $$n^{-6}$$ with probability at least $$1-C_2\log ^2 d/\sqrt{d}$$ , where c, $$C_1$$ , and $$C_2$$ are absolute positive constants independent of any other parameter…
Immune networks: multitasking capabilities near saturation
2013
Pattern-diluted associative networks were introduced recently as models for the immune system, with nodes representing T-lymphocytes and stored patterns representing signalling protocols between T- and B-lymphocytes. It was shown earlier that in the regime of extreme pattern dilution, a system with $N_T$ T-lymphocytes can manage a number $N_B!=!\order(N_T^\delta)$ of B-lymphocytes simultaneously, with $\delta!<!1$. Here we study this model in the extensive load regime $N_B!=!\alpha N_T$, with also a high degree of pattern dilution, in agreement with immunological findings. We use graph theory and statistical mechanical analysis based on replica methods to show that in the finite-connectivit…