Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
An approximation to maximum likelihood estimates in reduced models
1990
SUMMARY An approximation to the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in a model can be obtained from the corresponding estimates and information matrices in an extended model, i.e. a model with additional parameters. The approximation is close provided that the data are consistent with the first model. Applications are described to log linear models for discrete data, to models for multivariate normal distributions with special covariance matrices and to mixed discrete-continuous models.
Value-at-Risk and Tsallis statistics: risk analysis of the aerospace sector
2004
In this study, we analyze the aerospace stocks prices in order to characterize the sector behavior. The data analyzed cover the period from January 1987 to April 1999. We present a new index for the aerospace sector and we investigate the statistical characteristics of this index. Our results show that this index is well described by Tsallis distribution. We explore this result and modify the standard Value-at-Risk (VaR), financial risk assessment methodology in order to reflect an asset which obeys Tsallis non-extensive statistics.
Probabilistic small area risk assessment using GIS-based data: a case study on Finnish childhood diabetes
2000
A Bayesian hierarchical spatial model is constructed to describe the regional incidence of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) among the under 15-year-olds in Finland. The model exploits aggregated pixel-wise locations for both the cases and the population at risk. Typically such data arise from combining geographic information systems (GIS) with large databases. The dates of diagnosis and locations of the cases are observed from 1987 to 1996. The population at risk counts are available for every second year during the same period. A hierarchical model is suggested for the pixel wise case counts, including a population model to account for the uncertainty of the population at risk ov…
Rough nonlocal diffusions
2019
We consider a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation driven by a deterministic rough path which describes the conditional probability of a McKean-Vlasov diffusion with "common" noise. To study the equation we build a self-contained framework of non-linear rough integration theory which we use to study McKean-Vlasov equations perturbed by rough paths. We construct an appropriate notion of solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation and prove well-posedness.
On a rough perturbation of the Navier-Stokes system and its vorticity formulation
2019
We introduce a rough perturbation of the Navier-Stokes system and justify its physical relevance from balance of momentum and conservation of circulation in the inviscid limit. We present a framework for a well-posedness analysis of the system. In particular, we define an intrinsic notion of solution based on ideas from the rough path theory and study the system in an equivalent vorticity formulation. In two space dimensions, we prove that well-posedness and enstrophy balance holds. Moreover, we derive rough path continuity of the equation, which yields a Wong-Zakai result for Brownian driving paths, and show that for a large class of driving signals, the system generates a continuous rando…
Structural multilevel models for longitudinal mediation analysis: a definition variable approach
2022
Mediation analysis is used to assess the direct effect of an exposure on an outcome, and the indirect effect transmitted by a third intermediate variable. Longitudinal data are the most suited to address mediation, since they allow mediational effects to manifest over time. There exist several approaches to deal with longitudinal mediation analysis, and one of the most widely spread, especially in social and behavioural sciences, consists of using multilevel models. However, when applied to mediational settings, these models present some limitations that can be overcome moving to a structural perspective. In this paper we propose a new formalisation of multilevel models within a structural …
Using R via PHP for Teaching Purposes: R-php
2006
This paper deals with the R-php statistical software, that is an environment for statistical analysis, freely accessible and attainable through the World Wide Web, based on R. Indeed, this software uses, as "engine" for statistical analyses, R via PHP and its design has been inspired by a paper of de Leeuw (1997). R-php is based on two modules: a base module and a point-and-click module. R-php base allows the simple editing of R code in a form. R-php point-and-click allows some statistical analyses by means of a graphical user interface (GUI): then, to use this module it is not necessary for the user to know the R environment, but all the allowed analyses can be performed by using the compu…
Iterative Cluster Analysis of Protein Interaction Data
2004
Abstract Motivation: Generation of fast tools of hierarchical clustering to be applied when distances among elements of a set are constrained, causing frequent distance ties, as happens in protein interaction data. Results: We present in this work the program UVCLUSTER, that iteratively explores distance datasets using hierarchical clustering. Once the user selects a group of proteins, UVCLUSTER converts the set of primary distances among them (i.e. the minimum number of steps, or interactions, required to connect two proteins) into secondary distances that measure the strength of the connection between each pair of proteins when the interactions for all the proteins in the group are consid…
On the usage of joint diagonalization in multivariate statistics
2022
Scatter matrices generalize the covariance matrix and are useful in many multivariate data analysis methods, including well-known principal component analysis (PCA), which is based on the diagonalization of the covariance matrix. The simultaneous diagonalization of two or more scatter matrices goes beyond PCA and is used more and more often. In this paper, we offer an overview of many methods that are based on a joint diagonalization. These methods range from the unsupervised context with invariant coordinate selection and blind source separation, which includes independent component analysis, to the supervised context with discriminant analysis and sliced inverse regression. They also enco…
An Adaptive Parallel Tempering Algorithm
2013
Parallel tempering is a generic Markov chainMonteCarlo samplingmethod which allows good mixing with multimodal target distributions, where conventionalMetropolis- Hastings algorithms often fail. The mixing properties of the sampler depend strongly on the choice of tuning parameters, such as the temperature schedule and the proposal distribution used for local exploration. We propose an adaptive algorithm with fixed number of temperatures which tunes both the temperature schedule and the parameters of the random-walk Metropolis kernel automatically. We prove the convergence of the adaptation and a strong law of large numbers for the algorithm under general conditions. We also prove as a side…