Search results for "regime shift"
showing 7 items of 17 documents
A comment on mortgage procylicality
2012
This paper comments on mortgage procyclicality. A framework for credit constraints along the lines of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) is applied to illustrate a potential regime shift in the credit risk assessments of mortgagees. Depending on the relationship between house price growth and the alternative rate of return the weight given to collateral and debt-servicing ability may vary according to the house price cycle as mortgagees engage in search-for-yield. The regime shifts induced by increased global liquidity and expectations of continued housing appreciation might stimulate owner-occupation and LTV-ratios and induce mortgage procyclicality.
Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity
2020
AbstractRegime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary, and many detection methods are subjective. Here, we employ an operationally objective means of identifying regime shifts, using a Bayesian online change-point detection algorithm able to simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and(or) variance of time series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59-154 years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70% decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance; fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or climate-relate…
Separatrix reconstruction to identify tipping points in an eco-epidemiological model
2018
Many ecological systems exhibit tipping points such that they suddenly shift from one state to another. These shifts can be devastating from an ecological point of view, and additionally have severe implications for the socio-economic system. They can be caused by overcritical perturbations of the state variables such as external shocks, disease emergence, or species removal. It is therefore important to be able to quantify the tipping points. Here we present a study of the tipping points by considering the basins of attraction of the stable equilibrium points. We address the question of finding the tipping points that lie on the separatrix surface, which partitions the space of system traj…
The influence of ENSO on winter rainfall in South Africa
2011
Whereas the impact of ENSO on the African summer rainfall regions is largely documented and still regularly investigated, little is known about its impact on the winter rainfall regions located at the southwestern and northwestern tips of Africa. Yet, these regions are densely inhabited and are net exporters of high-quality agricultural products. Here we analyze the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South Africa austral winter rainfall using a 682 raingauges daily rainfall database documenting the period 1950–1999. The May, June and July (MJJ) seasonal rainfall amount shows a positive correlation with the Nino3.4 index that becomes significant since the so-called …
Coralline algal growth-increment widths archive North Atlantic climate variability
2011
Over the past decade coralline algae have increasingly been used as archives of paleoclimate information. Encrusting coralline algae, which deposit annual growth increments in a high Mg-calcite skeleton, are amongst the longest-lived shallow marine organisms. In fact, a live-collected plant has recently been shown to have lived for at least 850 years based on radiometric dating. While a number of investigations have successfully used geochemical information of coralline algal skeletons to reconstruct sea surface temperatures, less attention has been paid to employ growth increment widths as a temperature proxy. Here we explore the relationship between growth and environmental parameters in …
Evidence for a link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and annual asthma mortality rates in the US
2019
AbstractAn association between climatic conditions and asthma mortality has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether climatic variations have a fingerprint on asthma dynamics over long time intervals. The aim of this study is to detect a possible correlation between climatic indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and asthma mortality rates over the period from 1950 to 2015 in the contiguous US. To this aim, an analysis of non-stationary and non-linear signals was performed on time series of US annual asthma mortality rates, AMO and PDO indices to search for characteristic periodicities. Results revealed that asthma death rates evalu…
Évolution du stress gélif et idéotypes de pois d'hiver dans le contexte de changement climatique, à une échelle régionale.
2017
11 pages; International audience; Pea (Pisum sativum L.) is an important crop in temperate regions for its high seed protein concentration that is particularly sensitive to abiotic stresses. The abrupt temperature increase known as the “1987/1988 temperature regime shift” that occurs over Europe is questioning how winter pea will perform in the changing climate. This study assessed the winter frost damage evolution along from 1961 to 2015 in Burgundy-Franche-Comté by using: (1) daily observed and gridded regional temperature data and (2) a validated crop winter frost stress model calibrated for pea. This study shows a global decrease of the frost stress nevertheless resulting from a subtle …