Search results for "scenarios"
showing 10 items of 54 documents
Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change
2012
Summary This paper assesses the future variability of water resources in the short, medium and long terms over a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment in West Africa. Flow simulations were performed with a daily conceptual model. A period of nearly 50 years (1952–2000) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability. Calibration and validation were performed on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit indices. The climate models HadCM3 and MPI-M under SRES-A2 were used to provide future climate scenarios over the catchment. Outputs from these models were used to generate daily rainfall and temperature series for the 21st century according to:…
Current and Future Influence of Environmental Factors on Small Pelagic Fish Distributions in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea
2020
Managing for the Future: Understanding the Relative Roles of Climate and Fishing on Structure and Dynamics of Marine Ecosystems.-- 20 pages, 15 figures, supplementary material https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00622/full#supplementary-material
Moving Toward a Strategy for Addressing Climate Displacement of Marine Resources: A Proof-of-Concept
2020
Realistic predictions of climate change effects on natural resources are central to adaptation policies that try to reduce these impacts. However, most current forecasting approaches do not incorporate species-specific, process-based biological information, which limits their ability to inform actionable strategies. Mechanistic approaches, incorporating quantitative information on functional traits, can potentially predict species- and population-specific responses that result from the cumulative impacts of small-scale processes acting at the organismal level, and can be used to infer population-level dynamics and inform natural resources management. Here we present a proof-of-concept study…
Distribution of sea urchins living near shallow water CO2 vents is dependent upon species acid-base and ion-regulatory abilities.
2013
To reduce the negative effect of climate change on Biodiversity, the use of geological CO2 sequestration has been proposed; however leakage from underwater storages may represent a risk to marine life. As extracellular homeostasis is important in determining species' ability to cope with elevated CO2, we investigated the acid-base and ion regulatory responses, as well as the density, of sea urchins living around CO2 vents at Vulcano, Italy. We conducted in situ transplantation and field-based laboratory exposures to different pCO2/pH regimes. Our results confirm that sea urchins have some ability to regulate their extracellular fluid under elevated pCO2. Furthermore, we show that even in cl…
Modelling landscape constraints on farmland bird species range shifts under climate change
2018
Several studies estimating the effects of global environmental change on biodiversity are focused on climate change. Yet, non-climatic factors such as changes in land cover can also be of paramount importance. This may be particularly important for habitat specialists associated with human-dominated landscapes, where land cover and climate changes may be largely decoupled. Here, we tested this idea by modelling the influence of climate, landscape composition and pattern, on the predicted future (2021–2050) distributions of 21 farmland bird species in the Iberian Peninsula, using boosted regression trees and 10-km resolution presence/absence data. We also evaluated whether habitat specialist…
A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems
2020
[EN] A system methodology for modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) to test strategies and scenarios and (2) to optimize with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008-2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013-2025 period is obtained using the two methods.
Time trends and short term projections of cancer prevalence in France
2018
IF 2.888 (2017); International audience; BackgroundThis study analyzes time trends in cancer prevalence in France and provides short-term projections up to the year 2017. The 15-year prevalence for 24 cancers was estimated from the French cancer registries network (FRANCIM) incidence and survival data.MethodWe estimated prevalence using the P = I × S relationship, with flexible modeling of incidence and survival. Based on observations of the incidence and survival up to 2010, different scenarios for evolution up to 2017 were studied, combining stable and dynamic incidence and survival. The determinants of variations in prevalence (incidence, survival and demography) were quantified.ResultsA…
Impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on the economic development of Ukraine and Latvia
2021
The COVID-19 pandemic that has swept the world has created a number of diverse threats to the development of the countries’ economies, including Ukraine and Latvia. An adequate assessment of these threats is very difficult and, moreover, often has a probabilistic character due to their singularity and novelty. The COVID-19 crisis mainly affected the tertiary sector, in particular companies involved in tourism, international passenger transport, accommodation, catering, entertainment, and cultural events, where demand fell sharply, and jobs fell. They were also followed by a contraction in demand in the manufacturing and transport sectors, which were mainly oriented towards external demand a…
Erratum to “Time trends and short term projections of cancer prevalence in France” [Cancer Epidemiol. 56 (2018) 97–105]
2018
IF 2.888 (2017); International audience
Constraint Cellular Automata for Urban Development Simulation: An Application to the Strasbourg-Kehl Cross-Border Area
2017
AcknowledgementsThe research presented in this chapter is part of the Smart. Boundary project supported by the Fonds National de la Recherche in Luxembourg and CNRS in France (ref. INTER/CNRS/12/02). The authors would like also to thank the Grasp Program of LISER for allowing cross-collaboration between the two teams based in Luxembourg and France.; International audience; Urban sprawl and space consumption have become key issues in sustainable territorial development. Traditional planning approaches are often insufficient to anticipate their complex spatial consequences, especially in cross-border areas. Such complexity requires the use of dynamic spatial simulations and the development of…