Search results for "seasonal"
showing 10 items of 484 documents
A critical view on temperature modelling for application in weather derivatives markets
2012
In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature. The model contains seasonality, a low-order autoregressive component and a variance describing the heteroskedastic residuals. The model is estimated on daily average temperature records from Stockholm (Sweden). By comparing the proposed model with the popular model of Campbell and Diebold (2005), we point out some important issues to be addressed when modelling the temperature for application in weather derivatives market.
Biometric analysis of Brachionus plicatilis ecotypes from Spanish lagoons
1983
Univariate comparisons and several multivariate statistical analyses have been performed to study the morphometric variability of B. plicatilis. Both laboratory clones kept under constant conditions and natural populations from different Spanish lagoons and different times of the year have been compared. The results show that not only size, but also allometric coefficients are influenced by environmental factors. However, an important genetic component in the variation of shape and size has been visualized. A clear North-South ordination of the populations of the different lagoons and an important dispersion between their summer populations as well as great differences due to seasonal varia…
The predictability of international terrorism: A time‐series analysis
1988
Abstract The study examines the predictability of international terrorism in terms of the existence of trends, seasonality, and periodicity of terrorist events. The data base used was the RAND Corporation's Chronology of International Terrorism. It contains the attributes of every case of international terrorism from 1968 to 1986 (n = 5,589). The authors applied Box‐Jenkins models for a time‐series analysis of the occurrence of terrorist events as well as their victimization rates. The analysis revealed that occurrence of terrorist events is far from being random: There is a clear trend and an almost constant periodicity of one month that can be best described by a first‐order moving averag…
PM2.5-bound oxygenated PAHs, nitro-PAHs and parent-PAHs from the atmosphere of a Chinese megacity: Seasonal variation, sources and cancer risk assess…
2014
Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in air particulate matter contribute considerably to the health risk of air pollution. The objectives of this study were to assess the occurrence and variation in concentrations and sources of PM2.5 bound PACs [Oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) nitro PAHs and parent PAHs] sampled from the atmosphere of a typical Chinese megacity (Xi'an) to study the influence of meteorological conditions on PACs and to estimate the lifetime excess cancer risk to the residents of Xi'an (from inhalation of PM2.5 bound PACs). To achieve these objectives we sampled 24 h PM2.5 aerosols (once in every 6days from 5 July 2008 to 8 August 2009) from the atmosphere of Xi'an and measured the…
Seasonal response of vegetation on pollutants removal in constructed wetland system treating dairy wastewater
2022
Constructed wetland systems provide the ideal solution for small and medium dairy farms as they can be built close to the farm and are easy to manage and use. However, their perfomance is significantly affected by vegetation activity during the year. The aims of the present study were to assess the treatment of dairy wastewater (DWW) by a horizontal subsurface flow system (HSSFs) and the effect of plants in the removal efficiency (RE) of BOD5, COD, total N (TN) and total P (TP), in Sicily (Italy). The HSSFs treated 6/7 m3 per day of wastewater produced by a small dairy farm subsequent to biological treatment. The system included two units which were separately planted with Arundo donax L. a…
Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast
2013
Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in industry and business. Their usual formulation, however, does not allow covariates to be used for introducing extra information into the forecasting process. In this paper, we analyse an extension of the exponential smoothing formulation that allows the use of covariates and the joint estimation of all the unknowns in the model, which improves the forecasting results. The whole procedure is detailed with a real example on forecasting the daily demand for electricity in Spain. The time series of daily electricity demand contains two seasonal patterns: here the within-week seasonal cycle is modelled as usual in exponen…
Synchronization protocols in Spanish Merino sheep Reduction in time to estrus by the addition of eCG to a progesterone-based estrus synchronization p…
2015
Abstract An appropriate management of reproduction allows ewes to breed at a more intensive rhythm, more compatible with economic efficiency of farms. Hence, the objectives of the present work were to evaluate a traditional estrus synchronization protocol (based on medroxyprogesterone acetate-impregnated intravaginal sponges combined or not with equine chorionic gonadotropin) on a Merino sheep herd during the breeding season, in order to determine the best working protocol for this breed. A total of 277 sheep, blocked by age (200 ewes and 77 ewe lambs) were randomly allocated to four groups, two of ewes (E and Ee) and two of ewe lambs (L and Le). All females received 60 mg MAP (medroxyproge…
The predatory role of white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus) in seasonal declines of subtidal macrobenthos
2009
The overall purpose of this study was to develop a quantitative model to assess the influence of L. setiferus predation on subtidal macrobenthic abundance cycles in an estuarine creek system. Subtidal macrobenthic populations in temperate marine soft-bottom environments are known to undergo seasonal abundance cycles. Although the factors responsible for driving these seasonal shifts in abundance are difficult to identify, both environmental and biological factors have received credit. Juvenile white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus) are seasonally abundant epibenthic predators in the North Inlet estuary that have significant influence upon estuarine macrobenthic densities. Data generated from …
Eupelmus spermophilus Silvestri (Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea), an Indigenous Olive Seed Wasp Potentially Harmful to Olive Growing in the Western Cape, …
2021
The objectives of this study were the specific taxonomic confirmation of the main olive seed wasp (OSW) attacking commercial olives in the Western Cape, to investigate monitoring methods and seasonal occurrence of OSW, to determine the potential economic damage of infestations, and to ascertain the geographic distribution of OSW in the regions where olives are cultivated in the Western Cape. Morphological and molecular methods were used to identify all the species obtained from cultivated olives at two trial sites near Stellenbosch and Agter-Paarl. Eupelmus spermophilus Silvestri (Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea) was by far the most frequent and widespread olive seed wasp. Monitoring with yellow …
Measuring tourism seasonality across European countries
2018
Abstract This paper will propose a general approach for the analysis and measurement of seasonality in tourism, based on an analysis of the pattern of seasonal swing, as a preliminary step for the assessment of seasonal amplitude. The seasonality of tourism demand across European countries will be analyzed and clusters of countries identified, which are based on a similarity of their seasonal pattern. After discussing the limitations of the most frequently used indices employed in the tourism literature, a new index for measuring seasonality in tourism will be suggested in order to measure seasonal amplitude. The latter takes into account the ordinal and cyclical structures of seasonal vari…