Search results for "sensitivity analysis."

Urban runoff modelling uncertainty: Comparison among Bayesian and pseudo-Bayesian methods

2009

Urban stormwater quality modelling plays a central role in evaluation of the quality of the receiving water body. However, the complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results. This study was conducted to assess modelling uncertainty associated with catchment surface pollution evaluation. Eight models were compared based on the results of a case study in which there was limited data available for calibration. Uncertainty analysis was then conducted using three different methods: the Bayesian Monte Carlo method, the GLUE pseudo-Bayesian method and the GLUE method revised by m…

Automated uncertainty quantification analysis using a system model and data

2015

International audience; Understanding the sources of, and quantifying the magnitude of, uncertainty can improve decision-making and, thereby, make manufacturing systems more efficient. Achieving this goal requires knowledge in two separate domains: data science and manufacturing. In this paper, we focus on quantifying uncertainty, usually called uncertainty quantification (UQ). More specifically, we propose a methodology to perform UQ automatically using Bayesian networks (BN) constructed from three types of sources: a descriptive system model, physics-based mathematical models, and data. The system model is a high-level model describing the system and its parameters; we develop this model …

Calcul des contributions des incertitudes dans un modèle complexe de qualité de l'eau

2010

The quantification of uncertainty in integrated urban drainage water quality models is of paramount interest. Indeed, the assessment of the reliability of the model results for complex water quality models is useful for understanding the significance of the results. However, the state of knowledge regarding uncertainties in urban drainage models is poor. In the case of integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), the uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones depending on the model structure, the estim…

Which nitrogen fertilization techniques and crop traits to promote biological weed regulation by competition?

2020

International audience; Background and AimsThe necessary reduction of herbicide use may result in a residual weed flora in arable fields. Moreover, the useof mineral fertilizer must be reduced for environmental reasons. Thus, crop-weed competition for nitrogen mightincrease.Nitrogen competition among plants is driven by soil nitrogen availability and plants traits related to nitrogen nutrition.Selecting species for their nitrogen nutrition traits and adapting nitrogen fertilization (rate, date, number ofnitrogen applications, straw burial or export) could change competitive relationships between plants. Weeds withhigh nitrogen nutrition requirements are often hard to manage and could be ham…

Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations

2017

A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecologica…

Multi-parameter analysis of the obstacle scattering problem

2022

Abstract We consider the acoustic field scattered by a bounded impenetrable obstacle and we study its dependence upon a certain set of parameters. As usual, the problem is modeled by an exterior Dirichlet problem for the Helmholtz equation Δu + k 2 u = 0. We show that the solution u and its far field pattern u ∞ depend real analytically on the shape of the obstacle, the wave number k, and the Dirichlet datum. We also prove a similar result for the corresponding Dirichlet-to-Neumann map.

Modeling Political Corruption in Spain

2021

Political corruption is a universal phenomenon. Even though it is a cross-country reality, its level of intensity and the manner of its effect vary worldwide. In Spain, the demonstrated political corruption cases that have been echoed by the media in recent years for their economic, judicial and social significance are merely the tip of the iceberg as regards a problem hidden by many interested parties, plus the shortage of the means to fight against it. This study models and quantifies the population at risk of committing political corruption in Spain by identifying and quantifying the drivers that explain political corruption. Having quantified the problem, the model allows changes to be …

Implementation of sparse forward mode automatic differentiation with application to electromagnetic shape optimization

2011

In this paper, we present the details of a simple lightweight implementation of the so-called sparse forward mode automatic differentiation (AD) in the C++programming language. Our implementation and the well-known ADOL-C tool (which utilizes taping and compression techniques) are used to compute Jacobian matrices of two nonlinear systems of equations from the MINPACK-2 test problem collection. Timings of the computations are presented and discussed. Moreover, we perform the shape sensitivity analysis of a time-harmonic Maxwell equation solver using our implementation and the tapeless mode of ADOL-C, which implements the dense forward mode AD. It is shown that the use of the sparse forward …

Shape optimization utilizing consistent sensitivities

2010

Sensitivity Analysis in Nonrandomized Longitudinal Mediation Analysis

2021

Mediation analysis relies on an untestable assumption of the no omitted confounders, which posits that an omitted variable that confounds the relationships between the antecedent, mediator, and outcome variables cannot exist. One common model in alcohol addiction studies is a nonrandomized latent growth curve mediation model (LGCMM), where the antecedent variable is not randomized, the two covarying mediators are latent intercept and slope modeling longitudinal effect of the repeated measures mediator, and an outcome variable that measures alcohol use. An important gap in the literature is lack of sensitivity analysis techniques to assess the effect of the violation of the no omitted confou…