Search results for "speculation"

Speculative and hedging activities in the European Carbon Market

2015

Abstract We explore the dynamics of the speculative and hedging activities in European futures carbon markets by using volume and open interest data. A comparison of the three phases in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) reveals that (i) Phase II of the EU ETS seems to be the most speculative phase to date and (ii) the highest degree of speculative activity for every single phase occurs at the moment of listing the contracts for the first time. A seasonality analysis identifies a higher level of speculation in the first quarter of each year, related to the schedule of deadlines of the EU ETS. In addition, a time series analysis confirms that most of the speculative activity…

Globalisation: From Chrematistic Rest to Humanist Wakefulness

2012

Chapter 1 analyses the epistemological, anthropological and ethical aspects of globalisation and, as a result of the 2008 crisis, the urgency for a change of paradigm. The proposal involves overcoming the decadent post-modernity that characterises post-structuralism – which abandons itself to the principle of pleasure, thus stimulating debt and speculation – by means of a humanist post-modernity based upon the following principles: in the epistemological field, the recuperation of reality in the face of the game (including the stock markets) and, therefore, the subordination of finances to productive economy; in the anthropological sphere, the recognition of the Golden rule in the face of i…

Exploring the Hedging Effectiveness of European Wheat Futures Markets during the 2007-2012 Period

2014

Abstract The hypothesis that speculative behaviour was the cause of the instability of commodity prices has brought renewed interest in futures markets. In this paper, the hedging effectiveness of European and US wheat futures markets were studied to test whether they were affected by the price instability observed after 2007. Indirectly, this could also be thought as a test of whether the increasing presence of speculators in futures markets have made them divorced from physical markets. A multivariate GARCH model was applied to compute optimal hedging ratios. No important evidence was found of a change in the hedging effectiveness after 2007.

1993

From his studies on Invertebrate animals and fossils in the vicinity of Paris, J.-B. de Lamarck (1744–1829) formulated a number of conclusions in his Zoological Philosophy [1] (1809), the first coherent theory of evolution. However, in contrast to commonly held belief, this was not based purely on speculation, but was progressively elaborated.

Thinking Parliamentary Politics as an Ideal Type

2018

The chapter discusses in detail Max Weber’s concept of ideal type, as a modus of knowledge that connects the contingent and controversial activities of scholarship and parliamentary politics. Weber regards the constantly changing reality as inexhaustible by any concepts. However, concepts offer competing ideal-typical perspectives on the interpretation of the changing realities. For Weber, the research process is a contingent and open-ended practice in which new perspectives contain chances to provoke conceptual revisions, whereas the absence of new perspectives would lead to stagnation. Understanding realised histories presupposes speculation with ideal types. The procedures and practices …

Speculation on whether a vaccine against cryptosporidiosis is a reality or fantasy

1999

In this paper the authors question whether the development of a vaccine against cryptosporidiosis could be taken into consideration. The necessity and feasibility of such a vaccine for human and veterinary application is discussed. Developmental stages within the life cycle of the parasite that might act as possible targets for vaccine development are summarised, as well as the target antigens offered by molecular biology and immunology studies. Vaccination trials against cryptosporidiosis carried out so far, including the active and passive immunisation approach, are also overviewed. It seems that with respect to a Cryptosporidium vaccine two target groups can be considered: children of th…

Logic and Computational Aspects of Computing with Speculations

2020

A novel, alternative approach to the fundamental logic of common- sense reasoning extending the concepts put forward by Lotfi A. Zadeh’s Computing with Words has been recently advanced by Enric Trillas, based on the idea that in order to allow for creativity in automated reasoning, the standard operations of inducing and abducing must be complemented by guessing, or speculating. In this paper, after a recall of Trillas’ skeleton formal model, a reflection is made on the computational aspects of such approach. As computational complexity of such approach generally increases exponentially, hints are given on how to tackle such growth and render more manageable the mechanisation of commonsense…

How Will We React to the Discovery of Extraterrestrial Life?

2018

How will humanity react to the discovery of extraterrestrial life? Speculation on this topic abounds, but empirical research is practically non-existent. We report the results of three empirical studies assessing psychological reactions to the discovery of extraterrestrial life using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) text analysis software. We examined language use in media coverage of past discovery announcements of this nature, with a focus on extraterrestrial microbial life (Pilot Study). A large online sample (N = 501) was asked to write about their own and humanity’s reaction to a hypothetical announcement of such a discovery (Study 1), and an independent, large online sampl…

Les jeux vidéo comme instruments de techno-transe

2016

International audience; This article aims to reopen the genealogy of video games, studying the similarities they share with what the author calls ‘techno-trance devices’. These devices, which are contemporary to the first video games in the early 1960s, rely on the creative hijacking of laboratory instruments. They share numerous technical and media properties with video games. Moreover, there are some records of these techno-trance devices being used during religious practices at the time, which might lead to speculation of a latent trance influence in video games as apparatuses. These shared properties between video games and these devices, derived from counterculture, are thus studied th…

Speculation and Justification in Policy-Making on Neuroenhancement

2013

Neuroscientific findings allow interventions in the human brain to improve its function or modify mental states even without medical indication. This procedure, termed as neuroenhancement, is subject to a broad ethical debate. As neuroenhancement is an evolving phenomenon, the debate is necessarily future-oriented and highly dependent on information about future developments. It remains an open question to what degree uncertain forecasting or even speculation should be considered in the ethical debate and policy-making. I propose to distinguish between arguments with three different purposes: intuition-forming, self-reflecting and justifying arguments. Adequate standards are required for al…