Search results for "stochastic"

Constructing transient response probability density of non-linear system through complex fractional moments

2014

Abstract The probability density function for transient response of non-linear stochastic system is investigated through the stochastic averaging and Mellin transform. The stochastic averaging based on the generalized harmonic functions is adopted to reduce the system dimension and derive the one-dimensional Ito stochastic differential equation with respect to amplitude response. To solve the Fokker–Plank–Kolmogorov equation governing the amplitude response probability density, the Mellin transform is first implemented to obtain the differential relation of complex fractional moments. Combining the expansion form of transient probability density with respect to complex fractional moments an…

Wait-and-switch relaxation model: Relationship between nonexponential relaxation patterns and random local properties of a complex system

2006

The wait-and-switch stochastic model of relaxation is presented. Using the ``random-variable'' formalism of limit theorems of probability theory we explain the universality of the short- and long-time fractional-power laws in relaxation responses of complex systems. We show that the time evolution of the nonequilibrium state of a macroscopic system depends on two stochastic mechanisms: one, which determines the local statistical properties of the relaxing entities, and the other one, which determines the number (random or deterministic) of the microscopic and mesoscopic relaxation contributions. Within the proposed framework we derive the Havriliak-Negami and Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts funct…

The bistable system: an archetypal model for complex systems

2011

Bistable systems often play the role of archetypal models to understand the dynamical behavior of complex systems. Examples range from microphysics to macrophysics, bìology, chemistry and also econophysics. Moreover the statistical mechanics is essential to study the physical properties of complex systems and to investigate stochastic systems in which the microscopic degrees of freedom behave collectively over large scales. We investigate the nonlinear relaxation in a bistable system in classical and quantum systems. (i) As a first classical system, the role of the multiplicative and additive noise in the mean life time of the metastable state of an asymmetric bistable system is investigate…

Disentangling Tax Evasion from Inefficiency in Firms Tax Declaration: An Integrated Approach

2019

In this article we present a new methodology to support fiscal monitoring by the Italian Revenue Agency (IRA) with the aim of improving current taxpayers fiscal compliance and fighting tax evasion within small and medium enterprises. In fact, given the methodology behind the Sector Studies (Studi di Settore - SdS) system, there is room for firms to implement tax evasion strategies by simply adjusting revenues (and costs) toward an estimated average threshold (known ex-ante), the so called "presumptive" revenues, and achieving the fiscal "congruity" status. By estimating a production function through stochastic frontier analysis we avoid estimating the average threshold know ex-ante and can …

Deterministic versus probabilistic consequences of trust and trustworthiness: An experimental investigation

2014

Abstract There is overwhelming evidence of reciprocal behavior, driven by intentions. However, the role of consequences is less clear cut. Experimentally manipulating how efficient trust and reciprocity can be in deterministic and uncertain environments allows us to study how payoff consequences of trust and trustworthiness affect reciprocity. According to the results for our modified Investment Game, trustees reward trust more when trust is more efficient but do not adjust rewards when the efficiency of rewarding is varied. Furthermore, higher deterministic benefits result in higher levels of reciprocity for all trust levels, whereas an uncertain environment diminishes reciprocity.

Investing for the Long Run

2017

This paper studies long term investing by an investor that maximizes either expected utility from terminal wealth or from consumption. We introduce the concepts of a generalized stochastic discount factor (SDF) and of the minimum price to attain target payouts. The paper finds that the dynamics of the SDF needs to be captured and not the entire market dynamics, which simplifies significantly practical implementations of optimal portfolio strategies. We pay particular attention to the case where the SDF is equal to the inverse of the growth-optimal portfolio in the given market. Then, optimal wealth evolution is closely linked to the growth optimal portfolio. In particular, our concepts allo…

Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Programming

2010

Stackelberg Equilibrium with Many Leaders and Followers. The Case of Setup Costs

2016

I provide conditions that guarantee that a Stackelberg game with a setup cost and an integer number of leaders and followers has an equilibrium in pure strategies. The main feature of the game is that when the marginal follower leaves the market the price jumps up, so that a leader’s payoff is neither continuous nor quasiconcave. To show existence I check that a leader’s value function satisfies the following single crossing condition: When the other leaders produce more the leader never accommodates entry of more followers. If demand is strictly logconcave, and if marginal costs are both non decreasing and not flatter than average costs, then a Stackelberg equilibrium exists. Besides showi…

Optimal Imperfect Commitments in a Negotiation with a Deadline

2001

One major finding of the bargaining literature is that the more irrevocable a commitment is, the better for the committed player. One notable exception is Fershtman and Seidmann (1993) bilateral negotiation where the commitment not only does not improve the committed player's payoff but also it results in inefficient delays. In this paper we relax two assumptions of the bargaining literature related to the uncertainty and irrevocability of commitments. We allow players not only to possess imperfect commitments but also to choose the degree of imperfection of their commitment. When these assumptions are incorporated in Fershtman and Seidmann (1993)'s model, we obtain that, on the one hand, t…

Commitment and strikes in wage bargaining

2000

Abstract This paper analyzes the long-run strategic relationship between a firm and a union as a repeated bargaining game, where there is incomplete information on the player's motivation on both sides and each party has a fall-back position. The firm and the union will engage in a reputation-building activity, that will produce a limited number of strikes over time. The bargainer that succeeds in building up a reputation for toughness and obtains a favorable payoff in the long-run is, either the more patient (or alternatively the more centralized), or the party with a higher initial probability of stubbornness, or the party with a smaller fall-back position. Our model also offers predictio…