Search results for "time series"
showing 7 items of 247 documents
An Examination of Tourist Arrivals Dynamics Using Short-Term Time Series Data: A Space—Time Cluster Approach
2013
The purpose of this study is to examine the development of Italian tourist areas ( circoscrizioni turistiche) through a cluster analysis of short time series. The technique is an adaptation of the functional data analysis approach developed by Abraham et al (2003), which combines spline interpolation with k-means clustering. The findings indicate the presence of two patterns (increasing and stable) averagely characterizing groups of territories. Moreover, tests of spatial contiguity suggest the presence of ‘space–time clusters’; that is, areas in the same ‘time cluster’ are also spatially contiguous. These findings appear to be more robust in particular for those series characterized by an…
Inferring directionality of coupled dynamical systems using Gaussian process priors: Application on neurovascular systems
2022
Dynamical system theory has recently shown promise for uncovering causality and directionality in complex systems, particularly using the method of convergent cross mapping (CCM). In spite of its success in the literature, the presence of process noise raises concern about CCM's ability to uncover coupling direction. Furthermore, CCM's capacity to detect indirect causal links may be challenged in simulated unidrectionally coupled Rossler-Lorenz systems. To overcome these limitations, we propose a method that places a Gaussian process prior on a cross mapping function (named GP-CCM) to impose constraints on local state space neighborhood comparisons. Bayesian posterior likelihood and…
Comment améliorer la prévision des ventes pour le marketing ? Les apports de la théorie du chaos
2013
La littérature en marketing constate un décalage entre les avancées réalisées par les chercheurs qui développent de nouvelles méthodes de prévision des ventes, et l'usage massif de méthodes traditionnelles reposant sur l'hypothèse de linéarité des processus analysés. Cette recherche expose la contribution potentielle de la théorie du chaos à l'amélioration de la prévision des ventes. Une illustration de ces apports est proposée avec une application à la prévision des ventes de consoles de jeux vidéo au Japon. Les résultats mettent en évidence la capacité de la méthode proposée à détecter la présence de chaos dans la série et montrent la possibilité de préciser l'horizon de prévisibilité des…
How news affect the trading behavior of different categories of investors in a financial market
2015
We investigate the trading behavior of a large set of single investors trading the highly liquid Nokia stock over the period 2003-2008 with the aim of determining the relative role of endogenous and exogenous factors that may affect their behavior. As endogenous factors we consider returns and volatility, whereas the exogenous factors we use are the total daily number of news and a semantic variable based on a sentiment analysis of news. Linear regression and partial correlation analysis of data show that different categories of investors are differently correlated to these factors. Governmental and non profit organizations are weakly sensitive to news and returns or volatility, and, typica…
Qualitative analysis of housing demand using Google trends data
2019
Big data analytics often refer to the breakdown of huge amounts of data into a more readable and useful format. This study utilises Google Trends big data as a proxy for an analysis of housing demand. We employ a qualitative method (fuzzy set/Qualitative Comparative Analysis, fsQCA), instead of a quantitative method, for our estimate and forecast. The empirical results show that fsQCA successfully forecasts seasonal time series, even though the dataset is small in size. Our findings fill the gap in the qualitative and time series forecasting literature, and the forecasting procedure herein also offers a good standard for industry.
Identifying the Sales Patterns of Online Stores with Time Series Clustering
2018
Electronic commerce, especially in the business-to-consumer (B2C) context, has for years been a popular research topic in information systems (IS). However, the prior research on the topic has traditionally been dominated by the consumer focus instead of the business focus of online stores. For example, whereas various segmentations exist for online consumers based on their purchase behaviour, no such segmentations have been developed for online stores based on their sales patterns. In this study, our objective is to address this gap in prior research by identifying the most typical sales patterns of online stores operating in the B2C context. By using self-organising maps (SOM) to analyse …
Univariate and multivariate properties of wind velocity time series
2009
We analyze the time series of hourly average wind speeds measured at 29 different stations located in Sicily, a region with a complex morphology. The investigation, performed from the univariate as well as the multivariate point of view, evidences that the statistical properties of wind at the single sites have features that are not reproduced by standard models and, thus, require specific modeling. Moreover, the synchronous evolution of wind velocity presents a cluster structure, obtained with different algorithms, that persists in the standard deviation too.