Search results for "todennäköisyys"
showing 10 items of 19 documents
Interactive decision support and trade-off analysis for sustainable forest landscape planning under deep uncertainty
2022
Sustainable environmental management often involves long-term time horizons and multiple conflicting objectives and, by nature, is affected by different sources of uncertainty. Many sources of uncertainty, such as climate change or government policies, cannot be addressed using probabilistic models, and, therefore, they can be seen to contain deep uncertainty. In this setting, the variety of possible future states is represented as a set of scenarios lacking any information about the likelihood of occurring. Integrating deep uncertainty into multiobjective decision support increases complexity, calling for the elaboration of appropriate methods and tools. This paper proposes a novel intera…
Plasmon-Induced Direct Hot-Carrier Transfer at Metal-Acceptor Interfaces.
2019
Plasmon-induced hot-carrier transfer from a metal nanostructure to an acceptor is known to occur via two key mechanisms: (i) indirect transfer, where the hot carriers are produced in the metal nanostructure and subsequently transferred to the acceptor, and (ii) direct transfer, where the plasmons decay by directly exciting carriers from the metal to the acceptor. Unfortunately, an atomic-level understanding of the direct-transfer process, especially with regard to its quantification, remains elusive even though it is estimated to be more efficient compared to the indirect-transfer process. This is due to experimental challenges in separating direct from indirect transfer as both processes o…
Ongelmanratkaisun opettaminen todennäköisyystehtävissä
2017
Mitä enemmän oppilas tai opiskelija oivaltaa itse, sitä enemmän hän oppii ja nauttii ongelmanratkaisusta. Tämä ajatus toimii lähtökohtana tutkielmassa. Käsiteltävät tehtävät ovat tasoltaan yläkouluun ja / tai lukioon soveltuvia. Tutkielma antaa opettajalle käytännönläheisiä esimerkkejä opetustilanteessa hyödynnettävistä todennäköisyysongelmista. Tehtävistä esitetään useita ratkaisuvaihtoehtoja, jotta opettajan on helpompi samaistua erilaisiin ajattelutapoihin. Mikä tärkeintä, tutkielmaan on kehitetty kysymyksiä, joilla oppijaa voi ohjata hienovaraisesti eteenpäin ratkaisussaan. Tavoitteena on, että ratkoja keksii kysymysten avulla itse ratkaisun kuhunkin ongelmaan. Ongelmanratkaisutaitojen …
Contextuality Analysis of the Double Slit Experiment (With a Glimpse Into Three Slits)
2018
The Contextuality-by-Default theory is illustrated on contextuality analysis of the idealized double-slit experiment. The experiment is described by a system of contextually labeled binary random variables each of which answers the question: has the particle hit the detector, having passed through a given slit (left or right) in a given state (open or closed)? This system of random variables is a cyclic system of rank 4, formally the same as the system describing the EPR/Bell paradigm with signaling. Unlike the latter, however, the system describing the double-slit experiment is always noncontextual, i.e., the context-dependence in it is entirely explainable in terms of direct influences of…
Wattsin ja Strogatzin satunnaisverkkomallin klusteroituneisuus
2015
Duncan J. Watts ja Steven H. Strogatz määrittivät vuonna 1998 verkon klusterointikertoimen, joka on yleisesti käytetty tilastollinen mitta verkon klusteroituneisuuden analysointiin. Esimerkiksi sosiaalisen verkoston henkilöiden tuttavapiireillä on taipumus klusteroitua siten, että monet henkilön tuttavista ovat myös keskenään tuttavia. Verkon klusterointikerroin laskee keskiarvoisen murtoluvun henkilön tuttavapareista, jotka ovat myös keskenään tuttavia. Alain Barrat ja Martin Weigt sekä Mark E. J. Newman, Duncan J. Watts ja Steven H. Strogatz määrittävät verkon transitiivisuuskertoimen vaihtoehtoisena klusterointikertoimena. Sosiaalisessa verkostossa se laskee millä todennäköisyydellä kaks…
Contextuality Analysis of the Double Slit Experiment (with a Glimpse into Three Slits)
2018
The Contextuality-by-Default theory is illustrated on contextuality analysis of the idealized double-slit experiment. The experiment is described by a system of contextually labeled binary random variables each of which answers the question: Has the particle hit the detector, having passed through a given slit (left or right) in a given state (open or closed)? This system of random variables is a cyclic system of rank 4, formally the same as the system describing the Einsten-Podolsky-Rosen-Bell paradigm with signaling. Unlike the latter, however, the system describing the double-slit experiment is always noncontextual, i.e., the context-dependence in it is entirely explainable in terms of d…
Lierojen parittelumenestyksen yhteys sää- ja ympäristöoloihin, yksilötiheyteen ja yksilön kokoon
2011
Yksilön kelpoisuus riippuu jälkeläistuotosta, ja parittelumenestys on yksi jälkeläistuoton avaintekijöistä. Monien eläinlajiryhmien lisääntymistä on tutkittu laajasti sekä laboratorio-oloissa että luonnossa, mutta lierojen lisääntymismenestykseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä luonnonpopulaatioissa ei vielä juurikaan tunneta. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten kahden ekologialtaan erilaisen lierolajin parittelumenestys riippuu ympäristöoloista, yksilötiheydestä ja yksilön koosta. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin tietoja lieronäytteistä, jotka oli kerätty syksyinä 2004 ja 2005 viljelymailta eri puolilta Suomea. Spermatoforien esiintymistä yksilöillä käytettiin indikaattorina näytteenottoa ede…
Bayesian semiparametric long memory models for discretized event data
2020
We introduce a new class of semiparametric latent variable models for long memory discretized event data. The proposed methodology is motivated by a study of bird vocalizations in the Amazon rain forest; the timings of vocalizations exhibit self-similarity and long range dependence. This rules out Poisson process based models where the rate function itself is not long range dependent. The proposed class of FRActional Probit (FRAP) models is based on thresholding, a latent process. This latent process is modeled by a smooth Gaussian process and a fractional Brownian motion by assuming an additive structure. We develop a Bayesian approach to inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo and show g…
All-Possible-Couplings Approach to Measuring Probabilistic Context
2013
From behavioral sciences to biology to quantum mechanics, one encounters situations where (i) a system outputs several random variables in response to several inputs, (ii) for each of these responses only some of the inputs may ‘‘directly’’ influence them, but (iii) other inputs provide a ‘‘context’’ for this response by influencing its probabilistic relations to other responses. These contextual influences are very different, say, in classical kinetic theory and in the entanglement paradigm of quantum mechanics, which are traditionally interpreted as representing different forms of physical determinism. One can mathematically construct systems with other types of contextuality, whether or …
Improving identification algorithms in causal inference
2018
Causal models provide a formal approach to the study of causality. One of the most useful features of causal modeling is that it enables one to make causal claims about a phenomenon using observational data alone under suitable conditions. This feature enables the analysis of interventions that may be infeasible to conduct in the real world for practical or ethical reasons. The uncertainty associated with the variables of interest is taken into account by including a probability distribution in the causal model, making it is possible to study the effects of external interventions by examining how this distribution is changed by the action. The probability distribution of a specific variable i…