Search results for "tropical cyclone"
showing 10 items of 76 documents
Stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) in the vicinity of North Atlantic cyclones
2015
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15 (19)
Mapping Susceptibility to Debris Flows Triggered by Tropical Storms: A Case Study of the San Vicente Volcano Area (El Salvador, CA)
2021
In this study, an inventory of storm-triggered debris flows performed in the area of the San Vicente volcano (El Salvador, CA) was used to calibrate predictive models and prepare a landslide susceptibility map. The storm event struck the area in November 2009 as the result of the simultaneous action of low-pressure system 96E and Hurricane Ida. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) was employed to model the relationships between a set of environmental variables and the locations of the debris flows. Validation of the models was performed by splitting 100 random samples of event and non-event 10 m pixels into training and test subsets. The validation results revealed an excellent (…
Life Cycle Study of a Diabatic Rossby Wave as a Precursor to Rapid Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic—Dynamics and Forecast Performance
2011
Monthly Weather Review, 139 (6)
Revising midlatitude summer temperatures back to A.D. 600 based on a wood density network
2015
Annually resolved and millennium-long reconstructions of large-scale temperature variability are primarily composed of tree ring width (TRW) chronologies. Changes in ring width, however, have recently been shown to bias the ratio between low- and high-frequency signals. To overcome limitations in capturing the full spectrum of past temperature variability, we present a network of 15 maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies distributed across the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Independent subsets of continental-scale records consistently reveal high MXD before 1580 and after 1910, with below average values between these periods. Reconstructed extratropical summer temperatures reflect n…
Predicting the landslides triggered by the 2009 96E/Ida tropical storms in the Ilopango caldera area (El Salvador, CA): optimizing MARS-based model b…
2019
The main topic of this research was to evaluate the effect in the performance of stochastic landslide susceptibility models, produced by differences between the triggering events of the calibration and validation datasets. In the Caldera Ilopango area (El Salvador), MARS (multivariate adaptive regression splines)-based susceptibility modeling was applied using a set of physical–environmental predictors and two remotely recognized landslide inventories: one dated at 2003 (1503 landslides), which was the result of a normal rainfall season, and one which was produced by the combined effect of the Ida hurricane and the 96E tropical depression in 2009 (2237 landslides). Both the event inventorie…
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS. Part I: cyclone intensity, PV anomalies and horizontal wind speed
2021
Abstract. Strong low-level winds associated with extratropical cyclones can cause substantial impacts on society. The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate; however, the involved changes in cyclone structure and dynamics are unclear. Here, such structural changes of strong North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied to associate such changes in low-level winds to changes in potential vorticity (PV) anomalies at…
Insurance mechanisms for tropical cyclones and droughts in Pacific Small Island Developing States
2016
One group of locations significantly affected by climate-related losses and damage is the Small Island Developing States (SIDS). One mechanism aiming to reduce such adverse impacts is insurance, with a wide variety of products and models available. Insurance for climate-related hazards affecting Pacific SIDS has not been investigated in detail. This article contributes to filling this gap by exploring how insurance mechanisms might be implemented in the Pacific SIDS for tropical cyclones and droughts. The study examines opportunities and constraints or limitations of some existing insurance mechanisms and programmes as applied to the Pacific SIDS. Eight insurance mechanisms are compared and…
Stratosphere–Troposphere Exchange and Its Relation to Potential Vorticity Streamers and Cutoffs near the Extratropical Tropopause
2007
Abstract Two distinct dynamical processes near the dynamical tropopause (2-PVU surface) and their relation are discussed in this study: stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) and the formation of distinct potential vorticity (PV) structures in the form of stratospheric and tropospheric streamers and cutoffs on isentropic surfaces. Two previously compiled climatologies based upon the 15-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-15) dataset (from 1979 to 1993) are used to establish and quantify the link between STE and these PV structures. An event-based analysis reveals a strong relation between the two processes. For instance, on isentropes below 320 K, 30%–50%…
Resolution Dependence of the Tropopause Inversion Layer in an Idealized Model for Upper-Tropospheric Anticyclones
2009
Abstract This note investigates the dependence of the extratropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL) on numerical resolution in an idealized modeling framework. Axisymmetric upper-tropospheric anticyclones are constructed by specifying potential vorticity (PV) and solving the nonlinear PV-inversion problem. The PV distribution has a smooth but near-discontinuous change of PV across the tropopause in a transition zone with vertical depth δ. For fixed δ the strength of the TIL changes with changing resolution until the transition zone is resolved by a fairly large number of grid points. The quality-controlled numerical solutions are used to study the behavior for δ → 0. This limit can lead to…
Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan
2009
Published version of an article from the journal: Climatic Change. The original publication is available at Spingerlink. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9725-9 The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a giv…