Search results for "uncertainty."
showing 10 items of 972 documents
Hydrological post-processing based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)
2019
[EN] This study introduces a method to quantify the conditional predictive uncertainty in hydrological post-processing contexts when it is cumbersome to calculate the likelihood (intractable likelihood). Sometimes, it can be difficult to calculate the likelihood itself in hydrological modelling, specially working with complex models or with ungauged catchments. Therefore, we propose the ABC post-processor that exchanges the requirement of calculating the likelihood function by the use of some sufficient summary statistics and synthetic datasets. The aim is to show that the conditional predictive distribution is qualitatively similar produced by the exact predictive (MCMC post-processor) or …
The price of multiobjective robustness : Analyzing solution sets to uncertain multiobjective problems
2021
Defining and finding robust efficient solutions to uncertain multiobjective optimization problems has been an issue of growing interest recently. Different concepts have been published defining what a “robust efficient” solution is. Each of these concepts leads to a different set of solutions, but it is difficult to visualize and understand the differences between these sets. In this paper we develop an approach for comparing such sets of robust efficient solutions, namely we analyze their outcomes under the nominal scenario and in the worst case using the upper set-less order from set-valued optimization. Analyzing the set of nominal efficient solutions, the set of minmax robust efficient …
Global sensitivity analysis for urban water quality modelling: Terminology, convergence and comparison of different methods
2015
Abstract Sensitivity analysis represents an important step in improving the understanding and use of environmental models. Indeed, by means of global sensitivity analysis (GSA), modellers may identify both important ( factor prioritisation ) and non-influential ( factor fixing ) model factors. No general rule has yet been defined for verifying the convergence of the GSA methods. In order to fill this gap this paper presents a convergence analysis of three widely used GSA methods (SRC, Extended FAST and Morris screening) for an urban drainage stormwater quality–quantity model. After the convergence was achieved the results of each method were compared. In particular, a discussion on peculiar…
A Conditional Value–at–Risk Model for Insurance Products with Guarantee
2009
We propose a model to select the optimal portfolio which underlies insurance policies with a guarantee. The objective function is defined in order to minimise the conditional value at-risk (CVaR) of the distribution of the losses with respect to a target return. We add operational and regulatory constraints to make the model as flexible as possible when used for real applications. We show that the integration of the asset and liability side yields superior performances with respect to naive fixed-mix portfolios and asset based strategies. We validate the model on out-of-sample scenarios and provide insights on policy design.
Uncertainty Propagation in Integrated Urban Water Quality Modelling
2018
Sensitivity and uncertainty assessment of integrated urban drainage water quality models are crucial steps in the evaluation of the reliability of model results. Indeed, the assessment of the reliability of the results of complex water quality models is crucial in understanding their significance. In the case of integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones in a manner dependent on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and u…
Solution to nonlinear MHDS arising from optimal growth problems
2011
Abstract In this paper we propose a method for solving in closed form a general class of nonlinear modified Hamiltonian dynamic systems (MHDS). This method is used to analyze the intertemporal optimization problem from endogenous growth theory, especially the cases with two controls and one state variable. We use the exact solutions to study both uniqueness and indeterminacy of the optimal path when the dynamic system has not a well-defined isolated steady state. With this approach we avoid the linearization process, as well as the reduction of dimension technique usually applied when the dynamic system offers a continuum of steady states or no steady state at all.
Robust model calibration using determinist and stochastic performance metrics
2016
International audience; The aeronautics industry has benefited from the use of numerical models to supplement or replace the costly design-build-test paradigm. These models are often calibrated using experimental data to obtain optimal fidelity-to-data but compensating effects between calibration parameters can complicate the model selection process due to the non-uniqueness of the solution. One way to reduce this ambiguity is to include a robustness requirement to the selection criteria. In this study, the info-gap decision theory is used to represent the lack of knowledge resulting from compensating effects and a robustness analysis is performed to investigate the impact of uncertainty on…
Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues
2011
In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Prüfer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139–153). Unlike standard pretest estimators that are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model-averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Spec…
Improvement of Statistical Decisions under Parametric Uncertainty
2011
A large number of problems in production planning and scheduling, location, transportation, finance, and engineering design require that decisions be made in the presence of uncertainty. Decision‐making under uncertainty is a central problem in statistical inference, and has been formally studied in virtually all approaches to inference. The aim of the present paper is to show how the invariant embedding technique, the idea of which belongs to the authors, may be employed in the particular case of finding the improved statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the i…
Decision making in multiobjective optimization problems under uncertainty: balancing between robustness and quality
2018
As an emerging research field, multiobjective robust optimization employs minmax robustness as the most commonly used concept. Light robustness is a concept in which a parameter, tolerable degradations, can be used to control the loss in the objective function values in the most typical scenario for gaining in robustness. In this paper, we develop a lightly robust interactive multiobjective optimization method, LiRoMo, to support a decision maker to find a most preferred lightly robust efficient solution with a good balance between robustness and the objective function values in the most typical scenario. In LiRoMo, we formulate a lightly robust subproblem utilizing an achievement scalarizi…