Information Flows Among the Major Stock Market Areas
The relationship between the index returns of the major stock markets has been analysed in many papers. These studies usually examine lead–lag relationships between markets, without distinguishing the influencing ability and the sensitivity of each of the markets. Additionally, these studies use indices that are not directly comparable — either because of the way the indices are calculated or because of the number of companies and sectors used to construct them. This paper addresses both points. First, all the analyses have been made using homogeneous indices designed by Morgan Stanley Capital International. Secondly, the information flow has been studied by applying the model proposed by P…
Can Euribor be fixed?
The manipulation of Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor) is a problem with great impact on international financial markets. This paper focuses on two aspects of the Euribor benchmark rate for the period 2004–2018: the specific features that make the Index more vulnerable to manipulation and the potential for Index manipulation over the studied period. To address the first aspect, we examine the range and the standard deviation of daily quotes, as well as the panel banks’ quote submissions to the Euribor administrator, the maximum and minimum quotes and the daily variation of submissions. As a result, we found a group of five banks with similar and extreme submission patterns, which might b…
Region vs. Industry Effects and Volatility Transmission
This article presents an analysis of the relative importance of region versus industry effects in stock returns, as opposed to the extensively analyzed country versus industry effects. The sample includes the period after the bursting of the technology bubble. Moreover, volatility transmission patterns are analyzed within an industry across regions to assess whether the same international links found in aggregate stock market indices exist at the industry level. The results confirm the dominance of region effects over industry effects, except during the bubble period. The results of the volatility transmission analysis suggest that the importance of spillovers depends on the industry.
The Investment Performance of U.S. Islamic Mutual Funds
Islamic investment funds have become increasingly important because of high demand from many investors, including those outside the Muslim investment community. This article compares the performance and risk sensitivity of Islamic mutual funds in the United States with that of their conventional peers. This article also analyzes the performance of Islamic funds, and compares this performance with that of socially responsible investment (SRI) mutual funds. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)-based methodology was used for the analysis. The results suggest that over the entire study period (1987&ndash
The reliability of spanish and german electricity forward prices. Databases and price discovery process
Given the existence of different databases from different sources that offer information on forward electricity prices, the need to compare them arises to guarantee that research results and trading decisions based on them are not sensitive to the database used. We worked with forward electricity prices traded over the counter, closest month to maturity, covering the period from 2010 to 2016 for the Spanish over the counter (OTC) market, and from 2008 to 2016 for the German OTC market. The goal of this paper was to test whether there were significant discrepancies between the price series provided by two of the main agencies of financial information (Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg), as well …
Demography and Economic Growth in Spain: A Time Series Analysis
In this paper, advanced time series econometric tools are employed to test the existence of relationships among demographic and macroeconomic variables in Spain along the 1960-2000 period. Annual data for the total fertility rate, infant mortality rate, per capita gross domestic product and wages are used in the empirical analysis. We first examine the bivariate Granger causality to look for short run relations. Then, a multivariate cointegration analysis is carry out, showing that two long run relationships among the variables exist with statistically significant coefficients. From these cointegration vectors, the vector error correction model is estimated to test the endogenous or exogeno…
Revisiting bank failure in the United States: a fuzzy-set analysis
Past financial crises have illustrated the importance of recognising the combinations of factors that can cause financial distress in the banking industry. Accordingly, this study uses fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify the combinations of factors that lead to bank failure. The data consist of 30 annual financial ratio series for 156 U.S. banks over a 15-year period (2001–2015). Identifying combinations of conditions that can produce bank failure is crucial to help regulators and bank managers. The fsQCA presented in this paper sheds light on the relationships between combinations of conditions and bank failure, providing a solution comprising two sufficient and …
The impact of scale effects on the prevailing internet-based banking model in the US
Internet-based banks use a technology-intensive production process that may benefit from scale effects as they grow larger. This article analyzes whether the predominant Internet-primary bank in the USA generates technology-based economies of scale in the period 2002–2010. There is evidence of both favorable and adverse technology-based scale effects. As the leading Internet-primary bank gets larger, the financial performance gap with traditional banks shrinks while some of its critical competitive advantages wear down. The results suggest that unless the prevailing Internet-primary bank preserves the distinctive advantages of the Internet-based business model as it improves financial perfo…
Decoupling factors on the energy–output linkage: The Spanish case
The recent increase of energy intensity in Spain and the ratification of the Kyoto protocol call for the implementation of energy policies in Spain. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Energy Consumption (EC) by taking into account several decoupling factors that can affect this linkage. Specifically, we have considered the temporal aggregation of data and its seasonal adjustments, the multivariate methodology, the substitution between EC and other inputs and the technological changes. Empirical tests reveal a long-run relationship between EC and GDP that can only be established in a complete way with a multivariate cointegration analysis.…
Predicting failure in the U.S. banking sector: An extreme gradient boosting approach
Abstract Banks play a central role in developed economies. Consequently, systemic banking crises destabilize financial markets and hamper global economic growth. In this study, extreme gradient boosting was used to predict bank failure in the U.S. banking sector. Key variables were identified to anticipate and prevent bank defaults. The data, which spanned the period 2001 to 2015, consisted of annual series of 30 financial ratios for 156 U.S. national commercial banks. Identifying leading indicators of bank failure is vital to help regulators and bank managers act swiftly before distressed financial institutions reach the point of no return. The findings indicate that lower values for retai…
Cross-listing, price discovery and the informativeness of the trading process
This paper analyzes the price discovery process of securities that trade at multiple markets with trading sessions that totally or partially overlap. Building on Hasbrouck (1995) information share approach, we introduce a methodology that distinguishes two sources of information asymmetries between markets: trade-related and trade-unrelated informative shocks. This approach determines how much of each market?s relative contribution to the price discovery process during the overlapping period is attributable to its own trading activity. We provide empirical evidence on the contribution of the NYSE in the price discovery process of the Spanish cross-listed stocks during the daily two-hour ove…
Ethical Versus Conventional Banking: A Case Study
The 2008 financial crisis has changed the structure of banking, generating public distrust in the conventional financial system. An alternative has emerged as a result of this lack of confidence. This alternative is known as ethical banking. A growing number of investors, asset managers, and financial intermediaries have incorporated sustainability considerations into their business practices. This paper discusses the origins of ethical banking and describes its primary characteristics. The goal is to determine whether ethical banking can be as profitable as conventional banking despite only investing in projects based on social values. A comparative analysis is performed to identify differ…
Anticipating bank distress in the Eurozone: An Extreme Gradient Boosting approach
Abstract The banking sector plays a special role in the economy and has critical functions which are essential for economic stability. Hence, systemic banking crises disrupt financial markets and hinder global economic growth. In this study, Extreme Gradient Boosting, a state of the art machine learning method, is applied to identify a set of key leading indicators that may help predict and prevent bank failure in the Eurozone banking sector. The cross-sectional data used in this study consists of 25 annual financial ratio series for commercial banks in the Eurozone. The sample includes Eurozone listed failed and non-failed banks for the period 2006–2016. A number of early warning systems a…
Market efficiency and price discovery relationships between spot, futures and forward prices: the case of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL)
ABSTRACTThis paper analyses the relationships between prices from three different markets within the Spanish zone of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), namely futures, spot and over the counter (OTC) forward markets. The study focuses on three items: (i) contrasting the Weak-form efficiency hypothesis of the markets involved in the study, (ii) analysing the Semi-strong-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) of the MIBEL futures market and (iii) examining the price discovery relationships between the series of prices of the considered markets.The empirical results confirm that 1-month-, 1-quarter-, 1-year-ahead futures and spot markets satisfy, generally, the Weak-form efficiency hypoth…
Has 1997 Asian crisis increased information flows between international markets
Abstract The Asian crisis started on July 2, 1997 and caused turmoil in developed as well as emerging international stock markets. The objective of this paper is to analyse the effects of the crisis on the relationships of the Southeast Asian stock markets with the stock markets of three geographical areas (Europe, North America, and Latin America). We use the Morgan Stanley national and international indexes (MSCI) for two homogeneous and nonoverlapping time intervals. The econometric techniques used in this paper include the cointegration test, vector autoregression analysis, forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), and impulse–response relationships. Our results show that: (i) there…
Volatility Transmission Models: A Survey
This study reviews the literature on volatility transmission in order to determine what we have learnt about the different methodologies applied. In particular, GARCH, regime switching and stochastic volatility models are analysed. In addition, this study covers several concrete aspects such as their scope of application, the overlapping problem, the concept of efficiency and asymmetry modelling. Finally, emerging topics and unanswered questions are identified, serving as an agenda for future research.
Green and good? The investment performance of US environmental mutual funds
Increased concern for the environment has increased the number of investment opportunities in mutual funds specialized in promoting responsible environmental attitudes. This article examines the performance and risk sensitivities of US green mutual funds vis-a-vis their conventional peers. We also analyze and compare this performance relative to other socially responsible investing (SRI) mutual funds. In order to implement this analysis, we apply a CAPM-based methodology and find that in the 1987–2009 period, environ- mental funds had lower performance than conventional funds with similar characteristics. However, if we focus on a more recent period (2001–2009), green funds achieved adjuste…
The manipulation of Euribor: An analysis with machine learning classification techniques
The manipulation of the Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor) was an affair which had a great impact on in ternational financial markets. This study tests whether advanced data processing techniques are capable of classifying Euribor panel banks as either manipulating or non-manipulating on the basis of patterns found in quotes submissions. For this purpose, panel banks’ daily contributions have been studied and monthly variables obtained that denote different contribution patterns for Euribor panel banks. Thus, in accordance with the court verdict, banks are categorized as manipulating and non-manipulating and Machine Learning classification techniques such as Supervised Learning, Anomaly …
Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks
The objective of this study is to analyze volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the effects of the September 11, March 11 and July 7 financial crises. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the crises themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the crisis effect. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impact that terrorist attacks had on both markets. El objetivo d…
Extreme value theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation
Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normally distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalised assumption of normally distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to model distribution tails properly so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey …