Poisson Regression with Change-Point Prior in the Modelling of Disease Risk around a Point Source

Bayesian estimation of the risk of a disease around a known point source of exposure is considered. The minimal requirements for data are that cases and populations at risk are known for a fixed set of concentric annuli around the point source, and each annulus has a uniquely defined distance from the source. The conventional Poisson likelihood is assumed for the counts of disease cases in each annular zone with zone-specific relative risk and parameters and, conditional on the risks, the counts are considered to be independent. The prior for the relative risk parameters is assumed to be piecewise constant at the distance having a known number of components. This prior is the well-known cha…

Spatial small area analyses of disease risk around sources of environmental pollution: modelling tools for a system using high resolution register data

Cancer Risk Near a Polluted River in Finland

The River Kymijoki in southern Finland is heavily polluted with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans and may pose a health threat to local residents, especially farmers. In this study we investigated cancer risk in people living near the river (less than 20.0 km) in 1980. We used a geographic information system, which stores registry data, in 500 m times 500 m grid squares, from the Population Register Centre, Statistics Finland, and Finnish Cancer Registry. From 1981 to 2000, cancer incidence in all people (N = 188884) and in farmers (n = 11132) residing in the study area was at the level expected based on national rates. Relative risks for total cancer and 27 cancer subtype…