SIMULATING DEMOGRAPHY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS
[EN] A deterministic/stochastic model in which the demographic and the well-being subsystems of a country are involved and related is presented as a way to approach human development. The demographic subsystem is a side-by-side, single-gender, age-structured population dynamic model. The well-being subsystem states the dynamics of the United Nations Hybrid Human Development Index. The model has been validated in the case of Spain and Belgium. Some simulations have been performed with the model for the case of Spain in the 2009-2020 period to determine strategies and scenarios that could increase the life expectancy at birth per gender. Copyright © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
A Side-by-Side Single Sex Age-Structured Human Population Dynamic Model: Exact Solution and Model Validation
A side-by-side single sex age-structured population dynamic model is presented in this paper. The model consists of two coupled von Foerster-McKendrick-type quasi-linear partial differential equations, two initial conditions, and two boundary conditions. The state variables of the model are male and female population densities. The solutions of these partial differential equations provide explicit time and age dependence of the variables. The initial conditions define the male and female population densities at the initial time, while the boundary conditions compute the male and female births at zero-age by using fertility rates. The assumptions of the nontime-dependence of the death and fe…
Evaluating a bound for MANETs routing protocols performance using graphs with activation windows
In this paper we present an algorithm called STPA (shortest time path algorithm) which aims at providing a comparison tool for the evaluation of a bound for mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) routing protocols performance. STPA provides an exhaustive evaluation of an ideal routing protocol. Based on the current position and state of the nodes it can determine factors like: how many complete messages get to the destination, which is the smallest amount of time required by a packet to get to the destination, which path followed each packet, and so on. This values would allow a protocol designer to improve or fine tune his proposal. We demonstrate that the complexity of the algorithm is O(sigma2)…
The Rural Postman Problem on mixed graphs with turn penalties
In this paper we deal with a problem which generalizes the Rural Postman Problem defined on a mixed graph (MRPP). The generalization consists of associating a non-negative penalty to every turn as well as considering the existence of forbidden turns. This new problem fits real-world situations more closely than other simpler problems. A solution tour must traverse all the requiring service arcs and edges of the graph while not making forbidden turns. Its total cost will be the sum of the costs of the traversed arcs and edges together with the penalties associated with the turns done. The Mixed Rural Postman Problem with Turn Penalties (MRPPTP) consists of finding such a tour with a total mi…
A stochastic dynamic model to evaluate the influence of economy and well-being on unemployment control
[EN] This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model to study the evolution of the unemployment rate and other relevant related variables in a country. This model is composed by three basic interrelated subsystems: demographic, economic and wellbeing ones. A key aspect of this model is that it considers three UN well-being variables simultaneously: Human Development Index, Gender Empowerment Index and Gender Differentiation Index. These variables involve key concepts for human development, as Health, Education, Economy and Female Labor. With this model, the most outstanding variables found in the literature in relation with unemployment control can be used to design strategies a…
Including an environmental quality index in a demographic model
This paper presents a new well-being index which allows environmental quality to be measured through CO2 emissions, renewable energies and nuclear power. Its formula derives from a geometric mean used to calculate which things in the human production system warm the planet and which do not. This index has been introduced into a gender-defined stochastic population dynamic mathematical model which measures well-being in a country. The main variables in this model are rates of death, birth, emigration and immigration, as well as three UN indices: Human Development Index, Gender Development Index and Gender Empowerment Index. This model has been extended with variables that allow an environmen…
A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems
[EN] A system methodology for modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) to test strategies and scenarios and (2) to optimize with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008-2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013-2025 period is obtained using the two methods.
A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index
[EN] This paper presents a new human happiness index built through five dimensions: development, freedom, solidarity, justice and peace. These five dimensions are evaluated through quantitative variables obtained from the Human Development Reports, World Data Bank and Eurostat. The new happiness index has been built following the guidelines set by the Human Development Reports of the UN for the construction of quality indices, and it has been compared on a set of 13 EU countries with the Overall Life Satisfaction Index, which is used by the UN. Moreover, the new index has been included in a dynamic mathematical model through the demographic rates to study the evolution of the population. Th…
A Stochastic Model for Population and Well-Being Dynamics
This article presents a stochastic dynamic model to study the demographic evolution per sexes and the corresponding well-being of a general human population. The main model variables are population per sexes and well-being. The considered well-being variable is the Gender-Related Development Index (GDI), a United Nations index. The model's objectives are to improve future well-being and to reach a stable population in a country. The application case consists of adapting, validating, and using the model for Spain in the 2000–2006 period. Some instance strategies have been tested in different scenarios for the 2006–2015 period to meet these objectives by calculating the reliability of the res…
Dynamics of the general factor of personality: A predictor mathematical tool of alcohol misuse
[EN] There are few studies developed about the general factor of personality (GFP) dynamics. This paper uses a dynamical mathematical model, the response model, to predict the short-term effects of a dose of alcohol on GFP and reports the results of an alcohol intake experiment. The GFP dynamical mechanism of change is based on the unique trait personality theory (UTPT). This theory proposes the existence of GFP, which occupies the apex of the hierarchy of personality. An experiment with 37 volunteers was performed. All the participants completed The five-adjective scale of the general factor of personality (GFP-FAS) in trait-format (GFP-T) and state-format (GFP-S) before alcohol consumptio…
Age-Structured Human Population Dynamics
ABSTRACT A von Foerster-McKendrick model to study age-structured human population dynamics is presented in this paper. Forecasts of population density (population per age unit) depending on ages are possible using this model. The model consists of a quasi-linear first order partial differential equation for the dynamics of population density per age-unit (except for the zero-age), a boundary condition for the births flow at zero-age, and an initial condition for the population density at the initial instant. A general solution independent of the particular human-system under study is obtained based on some hypotheses about the mathematical structure of its input variables. The model has bee…
The mixed capacitated general routing problem with turn penalties
In this paper we deal with the mixed capacitated general routing problem with turn penalties. This problem generalizes many important arc and node routing problems, and it takes into account turn penalties and forbidden turns, which are crucial in many real-life applications, such as mail delivery, waste collection and street maintenance operations. Through a polynomial transformation of the considered problem into a Generalized Vehicle routing problem, we suggest a new approach for solving this new problem by transforming it into an Asymmetric Capacitated Vehicle routing problem. In this way, we can solve the new problem both optimally and heuristically using existing algorithms. A powerfu…
Well-being and demographic dynamics
This paper presents a socio-demographic model defined by sexes and structured by age. The model is a von Foerster-McKendrick model for the dynamics of population by sex and age of a general human population. The fertility and deaths rates are structured by age and they depend on the well-being variable. The well-being variable is defined by UN, HDI-Hybrid. We present the validation of the stochastic formulation model from the case of Spain in the period 2003–2008.
Development of the Happiness Index in a country
[EN] In this paper, a Happiness Index is built through the Human Dignity Respect Index which is explained by Author (2014). The index is created using three main values: development, freedom and equality. But the equality is explained by solidarity, justice and peace. Then, the Happiness Index is developed with this five concepts. The aim of this paper is to obtain the minimum quantitative variables to explain these values as well as to obtain a generic formula, which allows measuring the happiness of a country/region. The term “generic” is introduced because this formula could be extrapolated to any country. The variables to obtain the Development Index are health (Life Expectancy at birth…
CtIP silencing as a novel mechanism of tamoxifen resistance in breast cancer.
AbstractAcquired resistance to the antiestrogen tamoxifen constitutes a major clinical challenge in breast cancer therapy. However, the mechanisms involved are still poorly understood. Using serial analysis of gene expression, we identified CtIP, a BRCA1- and CtBP-interacting protein, as one of the most significantly down-regulated transcripts in estrogen receptor α–positive (ER+) MCF-7 tamoxifen-resistant breast cancer cells. We further confirmed the association of CtIP down-regulation with tamoxifen resistance in an additional ER+ breast cancer line (T47D), strengthening the relevance of the phenomenon observed. In additional studies, we found CtIP protein expression in a majority of ER+ …