Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean dia…

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia…

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions…

Author response: Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

Association of Birth Weight With Type 2 Diabetes and Glycemic Traits: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Key Points Question Is birth weight associated with type 2 diabetes and glycemic traits? Findings This mendelian randomization study found that a 1-SD decrease in birth weight due to the genetic risk score was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes among European and East Asian populations. In addition, a 1-SD decrease in birth weight was associated with a 0.189-SD increase in fasting glucose concentration, but not with fasting insulin, 2-hour glucose, or hemoglobin A1c level. Meaning A genetic predisposition to lower birth weight was associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and increased fasting glucose, suggesting potential mechanisms through which perturbation of th…

Genome-wide Association Analysis in Humans Links Nucleotide Metabolism to Leukocyte Telomere Length

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a heritable biomarker of genomic aging. In this study, we perform a genome-wide meta-analysis of LTL by pooling densely genotyped and imputed association results across large-scale European-descent studies including up to 78,592 individuals. We identify 49 genomic regions at a false dicovery rate (FDR) < 0.05 threshold and prioritize genes at 31, with five highlighting nucleotide metabolism as an important regulator of LTL. We report six genome-wide significant loci in or near SENP7, MOB1B, CARMIL1, PRRC2A, TERF2, and RFWD3, and our results support recently identified PARP1, POT1, ATM, and MPHOSPH6 loci. Phenome-wide analyses in >350,000 UK Biobank p…

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND: Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults

© 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. Methods We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model …

Long-term residential road traffic noise and mortality in a Danish cohort.

Transportation noise is a growing public health concern worldwide and epidemiological evidence has linked road traffic noise with mortality. However, incongruent effect estimates have been reported between incidence and mortality studies. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate whether long-term exposure to residential road traffic noise at the most and least exposed façades was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, respiratory, or cancer mortality in a Danish cohort study. In a cohort of 52,758 individuals from Copenhagen and Aarhus, we estimated road traffic noise at the most and least exposed façades, as well as ambient a…

A century of trends in adult human height

Article

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Copyright © NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY.

Road Traffic Noise Exposure and Filled Prescriptions for Antihypertensive Medication:A Danish Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological research on effects of transportation noise on incident hypertension is inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate whether residential road traffic noise increases the risk for hypertension. METHODS: In a population-based cohort of 57,053 individuals 50-64 years of age at enrollment, we identified 21,241 individuals who fulfilled our case definition of filling formula presented prescriptions and formula presented defined daily doses of antihypertensive drugs (AHTs) within a year, during a mean follow-up time of 14.0 y. Residential addresses from 1987 to 2016 were obtained from national registers, and road traffic noise at the most exposed façade as well as…

Plasma HDL cholesterol and risk of myocardial infarction: a mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND: High plasma HDL cholesterol is associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction, but whether this association is causal is unclear. Exploiting the fact that genotypes are randomly assigned at meiosis, are independent of non-genetic confounding, and are unmodified by disease processes, mendelian randomisation can be used to test the hypothesis that the association of a plasma biomarker with disease is causal. METHODS: We performed two mendelian randomisation analyses. First, we used as an instrument a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the endothelial lipase gene (LIPG Asn396Ser) and tested this SNP in 20 studies (20,913 myocardial infarction cases, 95,407 controls). Se…

Metabolic mediators of the effects of body-mass index, overweight, and obesity on coronary heart disease and stroke: a pooled analysis of 97 prospective cohorts with 1.8 million participants.

Summary Background Body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes have increased worldwide, whereas global average blood pressure and cholesterol have decreased or remained unchanged in the past three decades. We quantified how much of the effects of BMI on coronary heart disease and stroke are mediated through blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose, and how much is independent of these factors. Methods We pooled data from 97 prospective cohort studies that collectively enrolled 1·8 million participants between 1948 and 2005, and that included 57 161 coronary heart disease and 31 093 stroke events. For each cohort we excluded participants who were younger than 18 years, had a BMI of lower than 20 kg/…

Risk prediction for estrogen receptor-specific breast cancers in two large prospective cohorts

Source at https://doi.org/10.1186/s13058-018-1073-0. Licensed CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Background: Few published breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models consider the heterogeneity of predictor variables between estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumors. Using data from two large cohorts, we examined whether modeling this heterogeneity could improve prediction. Methods: We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-) , respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks)…