Carotid plaque detection improves the predictve value of CHA2DS2-VASc score in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrilation: The ARAPACIS Study

Abstract Background and aims Vascular disease (VD), as assessed by history of myocardial infarction or peripheral artery disease or aortic plaque, increases stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF), and is a component of risk assessment using the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score. We investigated if systemic atherosclerosis as detected by ultrasound carotid plaque (CP) could improve the predictive value of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score. Methods We analysed data from the ARAPACIS study, an observational study including 2027 Italian patients with non-valvular AF, in whom CP was detected using Doppler Ultrasonography. Results VD was reported in 351 (17.3%) patients while CP was detected in 16.6% patients. Ad…

Estimating COVID-19-induced Excess Mortality in Lombardy

AbstractWe compare the expected all-cause mortality with the observed one for different age classes during the pandemic in Lombardy, which was the epicenter of the epidemic in Italy and still is the region most affected by the pandemic. A generalized linear mixed model is introduced to model weekly mortality from 2011 to 2019, taking into account seasonal patterns and year-specific trends. Based on the 2019 year-specific conditional best linear unbiased predictions, a significant excess of mortality is estimated in 2020, leading to approximately 35000 more deaths than expected, mainly arising during the first wave. In 2021, instead, the excess mortality is not significantly different from z…

Spatio-temporal modelling of COVID-19 incident cases using Richards’ curve: An application to the Italian regions

Abstract We introduce an extended generalised logistic growth model for discrete outcomes, in which spatial and temporal dependence are dealt with the specification of a network structure within an Auto-Regressive approach. A major challenge concerns the specification of the network structure, crucial to consistently estimate the canonical parameters of the generalised logistic curve, e.g. peak time and height. We compared a network based on geographic proximity and one built on historical data of transport exchanges between regions. Parameters are estimated under the Bayesian framework, using Stan probabilistic programming language. The proposed approach is motivated by the analysis of bot…

Effect of aspirin on renal disease progression in patients with type 2 diabetes: A multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial. The renaL disEase progression by aspirin in diabetic pAtients (LEDA) trial. Rationale and study design

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the most common causes of chronic kidney disease and kidney failure. It has been estimated that the annual decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) among patients with T2DM is approximately 2.0-2.5 mL min−1 y−1. Cyclooxygenase-dependent eicosanoids, such as 11-dehydro-thromboxane (Tx)B2, are increased in T2DM patients and are potentially involved in the regulation of renal blood flow. Animal models showed that cyclooxygenase inhibitors, such as aspirin, are associated with improvements in renal plasma flow and eGFR values. Hypothesis The primary end point of the LEDA trial is to evaluate the 1-year decline of eGFR in T2DM pa…

A two gene-based risk score predicts alcoholic cirrhosis development in males with at-risk alcohol consumption

Rosellina Margherita Mancina,1,* Flaminia Ferri,2,* Alessio Farcomeni,3 Antonio Molinaro,1 Angela Maffongelli,4 Monica Mischitelli,2 Edoardo Poli,2 Lucia Parlati,5 Maria Antonella Burza,6 Adriano De Santis,2 Fabio Attilia,2 Claudia Rotondo,2 Maria Margherita Rando,2 Maria Luisa Attilia,2 Mauro Ceccanti,2 Stefano Ginanni Corradini2 1Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, The Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, Wallenberg Laboratory, Göteborg, Sweden; 2Department of Translational and Precision Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy; 3Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy; 4Department of Gener…

Primary Radical Prostatectomy or Ablative Radiotherapy as Protective Factors for Patients With mCRPC Treated With Radium-223 Dichloride: An Italian Multicenter Study

Abstract Background We investigated, in a real-life setting, the prognostic relevance of previous primary treatment (radical prostatectomy [RP] or external beam radiotherapy [EBRT]) on overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treated with radium-223 (223Ra). Materials and Methods In the present multicenter retrospective study, we enrolled 275 consecutive patients. The demographic and clinical data and mCRPC characteristics were recorded and evaluated at baseline and at the end of treatment or progression. 223Ra was administered according to the current label authorization until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. We divided the who…

Unreliable predictions about COVID‐19 infections and hospitalizations make people worry: The case of Italy

Estimating COVID-19-induced Excess Mortality in Lombardy, Italy.

We compare the expected all-cause mortality with the observed one for different age classes during the pandemic in Lombardy, which was the epicenter of the epidemic in Italy. The first case in Italy was found in Lombardy in early 2020, and the first wave was mainly centered in Lombardy. The other three waves, in Autumn 2020, March 2021 and Summer 2021 are also characterized by a high number of cases in absolute terms. A generalized linear mixed model is introduced to model weekly mortality from 2011 to 2019, taking into account seasonal patterns and year-specific trends. Based on the 2019 year-specific conditional best linear unbiased predictions, a significant excess of mortality is estima…

Predicting resistant etiology in hospitalized patients with blood cultures positive for Gram-negative bacilli

Abstract Objective To develop a risk-scoring tool to predict multidrug-resistant (MDR) etiology in patients with bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by Gram-negative bacilli (GNB). Methods A prospective multicenter study analyzed patients with BSI hospitalized in 31 Internal Medicine wards in Italy from March 2012 to December 2012. Patients with BSI caused by MDR-GNB (non-susceptible to at least one agent in three antimicrobial categories) were compared to those with BSI due to susceptible GNB. A logistic regression to identify predictive factors of MDR-GNB was performed and the odds ratio (OR) were calculated. A score to predict the risk of MDR was developed. Results Of 533 BSI episodes, 2…

Overall survival in mCPRC patients treated with Radium-223 in association with bone health agents: a national multicenter study

Radium-223 has demonstrated efficacy in improving overall survival (OS) and in delaying symptomatic skeletal-related events (SREs). Bone Health Agents (BHA), i.e. RANK ligand inhibitor (Denosumab) and bisphosphonate such as zoledronic acid, are indicated to prevent SREs without a clear survival benefit. SREs on patient health have a high impact and it is, therefore, important to consider the role of new therapies with BHA to better understand the involvement of combination therapy. The primary aim of this multicentric study is to assess OS in mCRPC patients treated with Radium-223 in combination with BHA.430 consecutive patients treated with Radium-223 alone or in combination with BHA, affe…

Radium-223 in mCPRC patients: a large real-life Italian multicenter study

Background Radium-223 is a targeted alpha-particles therapy approved for the treatment of mCRPC patients with symptomatic bone metastases. To our knowledge we account for the largest cohort of mCRPC patients subjected to Radium-223 treatment in our country. We aim to describe in a real-life setting the largest cohort of mCRPC patients treated with Radium-223 ever taken into consideration. Methods 430 consecutive mCRPC patients were enrolled. Clinical data have been collected at baseline and at the end of the Radium-223 treatment. Furthermore, the overall survival(OS) of our population has been provided. Results 157 patients (36.5%) were still alive at the time of data analysis. A mean numbe…

An ensemble approach to short-term forecast of COVID-19 intensive care occupancy in Italian Regions

Abstract The availability of intensive care beds during the COVID‐19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short‐term prediction of COVID‐19 intensive care unit (ICU) beds, that has proved very effective during the Italian outbreak in February to May 2020. Our approach is based on an optimal ensemble of two simple methods: a generalized linear mixed regression model, which pools information over different areas, and an area‐specific nonstationary integer autoregressive methodology. Optimal weights are estimated using a leave‐last‐out rationale. The approach has been set up and validated during t…

Nowcasting COVID‐19 incidence indicators during the Italian first outbreak

A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. Accurate short-term predictions, including the potential effect of exogenous or external variables are provided. This ensures to accurately predict important characteristics of the epidemic (e.g., peak time and height), allowing for a better allocation of health resources over time. Parameter estimation is carried out in a maximum likelihood framework. All computational details required to reproduce the approach and replica…