6533b7d8fe1ef96bd126abba

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Estimating COVID-19-induced Excess Mortality in Lombardy

Giovanna Jona-lasinioGianfranco LovisonGianfranco LovisonFabio DivinoAntonello MaruottiAntonello MaruottiAlessio FarcomeniMassimo Ciccozzi

subject

Excess mortality2019-20 coronavirus outbreakCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)PandemicStatisticsBiologyGeneralized linear mixed model

description

AbstractWe compare the expected all-cause mortality with the observed one for different age classes during the pandemic in Lombardy, which was the epicenter of the epidemic in Italy and still is the region most affected by the pandemic. A generalized linear mixed model is introduced to model weekly mortality from 2011 to 2019, taking into account seasonal patterns and year-specific trends. Based on the 2019 year-specific conditional best linear unbiased predictions, a significant excess of mortality is estimated in 2020, leading to approximately 35000 more deaths than expected, mainly arising during the first wave. In 2021, instead, the excess mortality is not significantly different from zero, for the 85+ and 15-64 age classes, and significant reductions with respect to the 2020 estimated excess mortality are estimated for other age classes.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2021-11-17
https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.17.21266455