Spatial risks and complex systems: methodological perspectives

Research on risk and industrial catastrophes question the complexity theories. Besides the concepts of complexity which lead us to reconsider concepts of risk, hazard and vulnerability, we propose to think about more practical aspects, for example the modelling of human behaviour in crisis situations. The link between concepts as critical self-organization, emergence, bifurcation, and the methods in the Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI) used to model them is however difficult. In this paper, we present ongoing analysis on the key concepts of risk science, such as hazards and catastrophes. We propose to enrich them with complex systems theories. First, we present methodological persp…

Spatial risks and complex systems :methodological perspectives

Cette publication est en ligne à l'adresse suivante : http://www-lih.univ-lehavre.fr/~bertelle/epnacs2007-proceedings/daude4epnacs07.pdf; International audience; The reflections regarding risk and industrial catastrophes questionthe complexity theories. Besides the new concepts which lead us to questionolder concepts (risk, hazard and vulnerability), we propose to think aboutmore practical aspects, for example the modelling of human behaviour andthe confrontation in crisis situations. The link between concepts as: criticalself-organization, emergence, bifurcation, and the methods in the DistributedArtificial Intelligence used to model them is however difficult. In this paper,we present ongo…

Spatial risks and complex systems: methodological perspectives

SYSTEM DYNAMICS VERSUS CELLULAR AUTOMATA IN MODELLING PANIC SITUATIONS

International audience; In this paper we face system dynamics modelling and cellular automata to model panic processes. We compare both models using phase plans. The results of simulation confirm our hypotheses: First, a collective behaviour is not the arithmetical sum of the individual behaviours. Secondly the crowd causes the emergence of collective panic from individual panic. Both types of methodology produce the emergence of panic and identical curves for different values of initial conditions and parameters. But the effects of thresholds vary according to these values.